Use our 2023 Kentucky Derby trends to help find the winner of the big May 6 Churchill Downs race. The key stats will highlight the best profile of past winners – for example, ALL of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners came from gate 5 or higher.
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2023 Kentucky Derby Trends and Stats
Help find the winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby using our key trends and stats. For example, ALL of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners ran in the last seven weeks, while the Kentucky Derby favorite has a 55% strike-rate in the last 11 renewals.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
- 11/11 – Drawn gate 5 or higher
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse
- 10/11 – Never won at Churchill Downs before
- 10/11 – Placed favorites
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
- 8/11 – Won last time out
- 7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before
- 6/11 – Winning favorites
- 5/11 – Drawn between gates 5-8 (inc)
- 5/11 – Drawn between gates 13-19 (inc)
- 3/11 – Came into the race unbeaten
- 3/11 – Ran at Santa Anita last time out
- 3/11 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time out
- 2/11 – Trained by Doug O’Neill
- 2/11 – Ridden by John Velazquez
Kentucky Derby Trainer Stats
- Bob Baffert has won the race 6 times before (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
- Todd Pletcher has won the race twice before (2010 & 2017)
- Brad H. Cox has won the race once before (2021)
- John Shirreffs has won the race once before (2005)
When is the Kentucky Derby 2023?
The 2023 Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday May 6 at Churchill Downs racetrack.
📅Time/Date: 6:57pm, Saturday May 6, 2023
🏇Racecourse: Churchill Downs
💰 Purse/Winner: $3m / £1,860,000
📺 TV: NBC and Peacock
🎲 Kentucky Derby Odds: Forte 3/1 | Tapit Trice 5/1 | Angel Of Empire 8/1
RELATED: Which Horse Is Favorite For The 2023 Kentucky Derby? Churchill Downs Betting Odds
Avoid Gates 1 and 2 In The Kentucky Derby
Having a low post position in the Kentucky Derby has been a huge negative in recent times. Many feel this is due to the larger than normal field size (20 runners), so unless horses on the inside break quick they can get caught up in a sea of traffic and having to come from off the pace.
Post position 1 hasn’t seen a Kentucky Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986, while gate 2’s last winner of the Run for the Roses was the US Triple Crown hero Affirmed in 1978.
This year’s low-drawn horses are Hit Show (1) and Verifying (2), so history tells us these two runners have it all to do.
Last year’s winner Rich Strike won from gate 20.
California-Based Horses Have A Great Recent Record
The Kentucky Derby trends also tell us that the horses on the west coast in California have to be taken seriously.
Why? Well, a massive 7 of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners travelled over from Californian-based barns.
This year, the three that fit the bill here are Skinner, from the John Shirreffs team, plus Tim Yakteen’s pair of Practical Move and Reincarnate.
Respect The Florida Derby Winner
The best Kentucky Derby Trial race of late is the Florida Derby, which was run this year on April 1 and won by a certain Forte, who is the 2023 Kentucky Derby favourite for trainer Todd Pletcher. (Watch below)
The Grade One contest, which is run at Gulfstream Park, has seen five horses since 2006 win both the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby.
That’s a decent 31% return over that 16-year period. While this stat would have actually been a bit better if the 2019 Florida Derby winner Maximum Security hadn’t got disqualified at Churchill Downs.
So, based on this excellent Florida Derby record, this year’s hero Forte will get a further plus, while the runner-up Mage and third Cyclone Mischief (reserve) are also worth a mention.
Horses To Do The Florida/Kentucky Derby Double Since 2006
- Barbaro (2006)
- Big Brown (2008)
- Orb (2013)
- Nyquist (2016)
- Always Dreaming (2017)
2023 Kentucky Derby Trends: Top 7 Horses Based On The Stats
We take a look at the top seven horses in the 2023 Kentucky Derby betting and apply our main 8 Kentucky Derby trends to each of them to see who comes out best.
Note: Once the gates are announced then you can also apply the key draw stat to these runners. Remember ALL of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners came from gate 5 or higher.
Did You Know? The last Kentucky Derby winner from gate 1 was Ferdinand back in 1986, while stall 2 last saw the winner in 1978 with Triple Crown winner Affirmed.
FORTE
This Todd Pletcher-trained 3 year-old will be the 2023 Kentucky Derby favourite and it’s easy to see why. Forte is coming into the Run for the Roses off the back of five straight wins – the last being in the Florida Derby on April 1 – beating Mage by a length. The Pletcher yard have two Kentucky Derby wins to their name (2010 & 2017) and with other big fancies Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns, the barn has a strong hand in the Churchill Downs race this year.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
- 10/11 – Placed favorites ✅
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
- 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
- 6/11 – Winning favorites ✅
TAPIT TRICE
Another big player for the Todd Pletcher camp after winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 8. Tapit Trice has now won 4 of his 5 starts, having also won the Tampa Bay Derby back in March. Last time out he battled on well to get the better of Verifying, but there was only a neck between them at the post, so it’s fair to say they will head to Churchill Downs closely matched.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
- 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
- 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
- 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌
DERMA SOTOGAKE
Possible Kentucky Derby runner from Japan, so if successful would be creating a big chunk of Churchill Downs history. No stranger to racing outside his homeland though, as won the UAE Derby at Meydan (Dubai) in March and was also third in the lucrative Saudi Derby in February.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ❌
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ❌
- 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
- 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
- 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
This Brad H.Cox runner will be looking to give the yard their second Kentucky Derby win after taking the Run for the Roses in 2021 with Mandaloun. Angel Of Empire heads into the race in fine form too having won the Arkansas Derby on April 1 and has now been successful in 4 of his 6 races – winning just over $1m.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
- 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
- 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
- 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌
PRACTICAL MOVE
Housed at the Tim Yakteen barn, who are hunting their first Kentucky Derby win. They’ve got a great chance of putting that right though as this improving 3 year-old was a gutsy winner of the Santa Anita Derby on April 8. He beat two other possible 2023 Kentucky Derby runners Mandarin Hero and Skinner in a tight three-way battle up the shoot, which was his fourth career win now from 7.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
- 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
- 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
- 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌
KINGSBARNS
The next of the big Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby hopes that heads in the May 6 race unbeaten 3-from-3. The last of those wins came in the Louisiana Derby on March 25 – winning by an impressive 3 1/2 lengths. Being lightly-raced there should be a lot more to come from this Uncle Mo colt.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
- 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ❌
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
- 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
- 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌
VERIFYING
Another leading chance for the Brad H.Cox team, who come into the Kentucky Derby with 2 wins from 6 runs, but was a solid second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stake last time at Keeneland. He was only a neck behind Tapit Trice that day so many feel he’s got a solid chance of reversing that form with the Pletcher horse. He’ll be looking to give Cox his second KD win after landing the prize in 2021, but of our featured runners does seem to have the most Kentucky Derby trends to overcome.
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
- 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
- 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
- 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
- 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ❌
- 8/11 – Won last time out ❌
- 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ❌
- 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
See the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds that you can get by joining up with the best offshore sportsbooks in the US.
- Forte @ 3/1
- Tapit Trice @ 5/1
- Angel Of Empire @ 8/1
- Derma Sotogake @ 10/1
- Kingsbarns @ 12/1
- Two Phil’s @ 12/1
- Verifying @ 15/1
- Mage @ 15/1
- Skinner @ 20/1
- Mandarin Hero @ 20/1
- Confidence Game @ 20/1
- Hit Show @ 30/1
- Cyclone Mischief @ 30/1
- Disarm @ 30/1
- Rocket Can @ 30/1
- Jace’s Road @ 50/1
- Sun Thunder @ 50/1
- Raise Cain @ 50/1
- King Russell @ 50/1
- Continuar @ 50/1
- Reincarnate @ 50/1
Note: Others on request and odds subject to change
WATCH: Rich Strike Winning The 2022 Kentucky Derby
Recent Winners Of The Kentucky Derby
- 2022 – RICH STRIKE (81/1)
- 2021 – MANDALOUN (269/10)
- 2020 – AUTHENTIC (84/10)
- 2019 – COUNTRY HOUSE (65/1)
- 2018 – JUSTIFY (29/10 fav)
- 2017 – ALWAYS DREAMING (47/10 fav)
- 2016 – NYQUIST (23/10 fav)
- 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (29/10 fav)
- 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (5/2 fav)
- 2013 – ORB (11/2 fav)
- 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (153/10)
- 2011 – ANIMAL KINGDOM (209/10)
- 2010 – SUPER SAVER (8/1)
- 2009 – MINE THAT BIRD (51/1)
- 2008 – BIG BROWN (12/5 fav)
- 2007 – STREET SENSE (49/10 fav)
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