ITV Racing Tips & Trends | Newmarket Horse Racing Best Bets: Sat 14th May

More ITV racing tips and trends to get stuck into this Saturday as the horse racing cameras head to Newmarket to take in three races that include the Listed Denbury Homes Fairway Stakes (1:50).

Andy Newton is on hand with all the ITV Newmarket races key trends and tips this Saturday.

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RELATED: Newmarket Races Today – See All Races at Newmarket Today: Betting, silks runners & riders

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends and Tips (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – Denbury Homes Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

15/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/15 – Favourites placed in the top three
13/15 – Had won over 1m or further before
12/15 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Draw 1,2 or 3
9/15 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
9/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – US-bred winners
4/15 – Godolphin-owned winners
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
4/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Just the seven runners here but really this looks between four – Zain Sarinda, Post Impressionist and Groundbreaker, who has all shown a good level of form to date, plus the Godolphin runner – OTTOMAN FLEET @ EVS with William Hill.

This 3 year-old was a beaten favourite at Newbury last month on debut but still ran a respectable second that day – beaten just a neck. The slight drop back in trip to 1m2f is fine here and it will be no shock to see him use that experience to good use here with the Charlie Appleby yard also winning this 12 months ago and also three times since 2014
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2.25 – TRU7 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

18/18 – Had won between 1-3 times before
15/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/18 – Had won over 6f before
14/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
12/18 – Carried 8-12 or more
12/18 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/18 – Rated between 91-96
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1-8
9 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 3-7
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2

Several chances here, including Haymaker, Harry Three and River Pride, but the way the Roger Varian runner – LIR SPECIALE @ 7/2 with William Hill – won last time at Doncaster was eyecatching and this is also a race the yard like to target, winning it in 2017 and three times in the last 18.

He travelled well that day to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths and doesn’t look too badly treated on handicap debut off a mark of 82. Looks the sort to have more to come.

The other of interest is the Mark Johnston runner – I’M A GAMBLER (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill – who was well backed last Sunday at Hamilton and got the job done, albeit by a short head. Up 6lbs for that win but is a consistent sort that has hit the top three in 9 of his 12 runs.

3.00 – Birketts LLP Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV

5/5 – Aged 4 or 6 years old
5/5 – Drawn between stalls 1-7 (inc)
5/5 – Won over at least 7f before
5/5 – Rated between 85-91
5/5 – Won 2+ times before
5/5 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
4/5 – Placed favourites
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
2/5 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
1/5 – Winning favourites

With all of the last 5 winners drawn between stalls 1-7, then this is a certain plus for Pensiero D’Amore (1), Bullace (2), Melody Of Life (3), Natural Path (4), Quintillus (5), Free Solo (6) and Wizard D’Amour (7).

Outside that bunch, CD winner – Shine So Bright – was a good winner last time, beating Wizard D’Amour by a length but is up 4lbs for that, while Saleyymm has the past form to go well on his second in the Lincoln Handicap in March.

We are happy to stick with the draw trend though with the consistent WIZARD D’AMOUR @ 7/2 with William Hill and Godolphin’s QUINTILLUS (e/w) @ 5/1 with William Hill getting the verdict. The last-named will be better for his recent run at Meydan when down the field in a Listed race and will also enjoy this drop back into a handicap. – the Appleby yard have a 28% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track.

Wizard D’Amour was only a length behind Shine So Bright last time here but has an 8lb pull at the weights this time. He’s only been out the top three once from 8 runs and so with just 8-8 to carry another bold show looks on the cards.

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2022 Newmarket Meeting Race Times and Names

Saturday 14th May 2022

• 1:50 – Denbury Homes Fairway Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV
• 2:25 – TRU7 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 6f ITV
• 3:00 – Birketts LLP Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV
• 3:35 – Denbury Homes British EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Cl4 (2yo) 6f RTV
• 4:10 – Birketts LLP Next Level Law Fillies’ Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (3yo) 1m4f RTV
• 4:45 – TRU7 Fillies’ Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-80) 1m RTV
• 5:20 – Festival Of Suffolk Celebration Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 5f RTV

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Simply open an account, deposit, place a £10+ Fixed Odds individual bet on any sports market at odds of 2.00 (1/1) or greater and once the bet settles, you’ll be issued the first £10 Free Bet, with the second £10 Free Bet issued 24 hours later.

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Simply open an account, deposit, place a £10+ Fixed Odds individual bet on any sports market at odds of 2.00 (1/1) or greater and once the bet settles, you’ll be issued the first £10 Free Bet, with the second £10 Free Bet issued 24 hours later.