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ITV Racing Tips & Trends | Newbury Horse Racing Best Bets: Sat 14th May

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Newbury today

More ITV racing tips and trends to get stuck into this Saturday as the horse racing cameras head to Newbury to take in four races that include the Group One Lockinge Stakes, where the unbeaten Baaeed will the the star attraction.

Andy Newton is on hand with all the ITV Newbury races key trends and tips this Saturday.

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RELATED: Newbury Races Today – See All Races at Newbury Today: Betting, silks runners & riders


Newbury Horse Racing Trends and Tips (RacingTV/ITV)

1.35 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

15/17 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
14/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
13/17 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Drawn in stall 3
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/2

14 of the last 17 winners here were drawn 5 or lower – good news for Sam Maximus, Hierarchy, Mohi, Ribhi and Tiber Flow.

Of that bunch the Hugo Palmer-trained HIERARCHY @ 4/1 with William Hill gets the verdict after a nice return second at Ascot at the end of last month. That came in a Group Three so the drop to a Listed race is a plus and should also be better for it after a 173-day break.

Of the rest Tiber Flow can go well but this is his first run on the turf, while of those drawn higher the O’Brien Cadamosto and the Hannon-trained Ehraz have to be respected.

But the danger can come from SAM MAXIMUS (e/w) @ 9/1 with William Hill, who is having his first run for the James Horton yard after coming from Tom Dascombe’s team. Ran well in Group races last season so this Listed level looks a good place to get going again, plus has gone well fresh in the past too.

 

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2.10 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/18 – Drawn 4 or lower
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before
13/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
12/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/18 – Irish bred
10/18 – Had won between 1-3 times before
9/18 – Aged 4 years-old
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 10/3

A very tight renewal with all six runners having some sort of a chance. Course winner – Scope is the top-rated in the field for the Ralph Beckett yard but being a Group One winner last season has to give weight away.

Eshaada is also a G1 winner after taking the Champions Fillies and Mares’ at Ascot last October and is a course winner too. In fact, all six runners are past winners at Newbury, but the two we are siding with here are FOXES TALES @ 11/4 with William Hill and ILARAAB @ 11/2 with William Hill.

Foxes Tales has finished in the top two in 6 of his 8 runs and was second on his return run at Sandown last month in the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes. The step up in trip is the slight unknown but has run well over 1m3f in the past and now a 4 year-old looks worth another try over it.

Ilaraab will looked in need of his run at Newbury the last day after 175-days off but is back to Newbury where he’s a CD winner. He’s won 50% of his 12 starts on the turf and comes from the William Haggas yard that won this race 12 months ago too.

2.45 – BetVictor London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

17/18 – Had won between 1-2 times before
15/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Carried 8-10 or more
14/18 – Rated 90 or lower
14/18 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
14/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/18 – Irish bred
6/18 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

Many chances here – the Richard Hannon yard have three in the race – Zoom, Marsoul and Razzle Dazzle, with recent Nottingham winner – Marsoul – their most interesting runner.

Others to respect at Mr Big Stuff, Wineglass Bay, Surrey Mist, Red Vineyard and Inverness, but the two we are playing here are ISRAR @ 4/1 with William Hill for the John Gosden yard and at a bigger price LA PULGA (e/w) @ 14/1 with William Hill, who comes from the Roger Charlton stable that have won this race three times since 2015.

Israr has only had three career runs but has shown promise each time and came back last month with a nice third at Newmarket and with that his first try over 1m2f will be better for that experience.

La Pulga has a bit to fine but, as mentioned, comes from the Roger Charlton yard that have a top record in this race so looks worth having a small interest. A recent run at Sandown was a fair effort but the step up in trip to 1m2f here looks an interesting move and is also dropped a few pounds from that last run.

3.20 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

18/18 – Won over a mile before
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/18 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
14/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had won a Group One race before
13/18 – Aged 4 years-old
13/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
12/18 – Winning favourites
10/18 – Having their first run of the season
10/18 – Unplaced last time out
5/18 – Godolphin owned
4/18 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/18 – Won by a mare
4/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
1/18 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/3

Onto the big race of the day and having already mopped-up two Group One races last season and yet to lose a race, then it’s going to take a good performance from one of the other horses to lower the colours of BAAEED @ 2/5 with William Hill .

This William Haggas-trained 4 year-old is a colt out of the top drawer and proved that at the end of last season when winning two G1 races – the Prix Du Moulin and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

He’s 6-from-6 now and at the age of just 4 could even have more to come. You’ll also be clucthing at straws a bit to think this first run at Newbury is a negative – he’s won now at five different tracks, so the Berkshire venue should pose no issues.

Being rated 125 he’s the clear-top rated in the field too, with Real World next best at 118. He also beat the easy winner of the 2021 Lockinge – Palace Pier – last time at Ascot and so it should be plain-sailing here for this exciting Sea The Stars colt, that might even get further than a mile this season.

After this Baaeed is entered in the Queen Anne Stakes and Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, while later in the year also holds an entry in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown.

Best Of The Rest

As mentioned, the Godolphin runner – Real World – is the next best in the ratings and the owners have a good record in this race with 5 wins in the last 18 runnings. He’s a course winner here too, but does need to bounce back from two poor runs in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup.

Another yard that like to do well here is the Richard Hannon camp. They’ve won the race 5 times in the past and have Chindit, who was a Listed winner at Doncaster last time out, and Etonian in the race with the former a course winner and their much better chance.

Mother Earth for trainer Aidan O’Brien and the Andrew Balding runner Alcohol Free are others to respect and look the most likely pair to give the hot favourite a race. They both also get the fillies’ allowance (3lbs) from Baaeed. Both are proven Group One winners with Mother Earth landing the 1000 Guineas last season and Alcohol Free winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.

 

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2022 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Race Times and Names

Saturday 14th May 2022

  • 1:35 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV
  • 2:10 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV
  • 2:45 – BetVictor London Gold Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m2f ITV
  • 3:20 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV
  • 3:55 – BetVictor Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
  • 4:30 – Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f RTV
  • 5:04 – Connect It Utility Services Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m RTV

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