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ITV Racing Tips & Trends | Epsom Races Best Bets: Sat 4th June

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Epsom Derby betting

More ITV racing tips and trends to look forward to this Saturday (4th June) as we’ve one of the season highlights – it’s Derby Day at Epsom! Some of the best 3 year-old colts line-up for the Epsom Classic at 4:30pm, where the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Desert Crown heads into the race as the Epsom Derby favourite.

Andy Newton is on hand with all the ITV racing at Epsom with key trends and tips on Derby Day, Saturday 4th June.

Already claimed these betting offers? Check out all the latest best betting sites.

ROYAL CHAMPION (14/1) and HUKUM (11/4) were nice winners for this feature yesterday.


RELATED: Epsom Races Today – Cards, Tips & Results from Epsom Downs Races


Epsom Horse Racing Trends and ITV Racing Tips (RacingTV/ITV) – Saturday 4th June 2022

2.00 – Cazoo Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y ITV

19/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Never run at Epsom before
17/19 – Had won over 1m before (6 over 1m2f)
13/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Placed last time out
12/19 – Carried 8-10 or more
11/19 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/19 – Favourites that were placed
8/19 – Horses placed from stall 1
6/19 – Won their previous race
3/19 – Winners from stall 1
3/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 4)
Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 19 runnings

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: With horses from stall 5 or higher winning 13 of the last 19 runnings this is a fair trend to note – those drawn low (1-5) are Oh Herbets Reign, Box To Box, Oneforthegutter, Nolton Cross and Blue Trail.

12 of the last 19 carried 8-10 or more too, so the Marco Botti runner WAR HORSE (e/w) @ 8/1 with BetUK, who is drawn 10 and carried 8-10 looks interesting. He won last time out at Sandown – beating Nolton Cross that day – and has only been raised 2lbs. Mr Big Stuff, Approachability, Grenoble and Sharp Combo are others to look for.

But with two wins in the last 4 runnings, the Andrew Balding entry – SWILCAN BRIDGE (e/w) @ 23/2 with BetUK – is the other that catches the eye. A head second at Goodwood last time out was a solid run with the third 3 lengths back. Yes, up 6lbs for that here and up in grade too, but has only 8-2 in reacing weight to carry here and that’s 16lbs less than last time.

2.35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV

19/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
19/19 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
16/19 – Favourites placed
15/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
15/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
14/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/19 – Had won between 4-6 times before
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
9/19 – Winning favourites
9/19 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/19 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
3/19 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/19 – Trained by Mick Channon
Jockeys Silvestre de Sousa (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 12 runnings

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: This hasa been a race the Cheveley Park Stud owners have liked to target and so has trainer Sir Micheal Stoute – therefore, the fact they team up with Potapova will make her popular. But she was beaten last time by Roman Mist (runs here too) and is now four races without a win.

Cheveley Park also run Bashkirova who has a big looking chance too, but it’s the horse that beat her last time – MRS FITZHERBERT @ 3/1 with BetUK– that gets the call. This Hughie Morrison runner got the job done by 1/2 a length that day and should have more to come with that coming off a 184-day break. Add in that 9 of the last 19 winners have come from stalls 5 or 6, then draw 6 looks a plus too.

Miss Marble and Majestic Glory are others to respect, but the danger can come from TECHNIQUE (e/w) @ 7/1 with BetUK. 15 of the last 19 winners hailed between stalls 4-8 (inc) and so draw 7 looks fine too.  A recent second at Nottingham was a good run back and she has tasted this meeting before when running down the field in the Oaks last season.

3.10 – CAZOO Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

18/18 – Had won over at least a mile before
16/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
16/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/18 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Aged 5 or older
12/18 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/18 – Trained by the Crisford stable

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Several promising sorts here but the jockey William Buick has two wins in this race since 2013 and can grab another with the Charlie Appleby runner- MODERN NEWS @ 2/1 with BetUK. This 111-rated Godolphin gelding has won his last two and was super-impressive last time at Windsor when taking a Listed race by 4 1/4 lengths. Up in grade here, but hasa now won 5 of his 9 starts and looks to have more to come.

Mutasaabeq and the Frankie-ridden Megallan have claims, while Godolphin also run Zakouski, who is actually the top-rated in the field. But with the Simon Crisford yard having won two of the last four, this is a race they also like to target – the run FINEST SOUND (e/w) @ 9/1 with BetUK.

Second last time out at Meydan in March but that came in a Group One and was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths. Has only been out the first three on three occassions from 15 starts (3 wins) and of those at the slightly bigger prices seems the most interesting.

 

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3.45 – Simpex Express “Dash” (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV

18/19 – Didn’t win last time out
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)
15/19 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
15/19– Unplaced favourites
14/19 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
14/19 – Came from stall 8 or higher
12/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/19 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)
5/19 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/19 – Winning favourites
Mokaatil won the race in 2021

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Blink and you might miss this – run over one of the fastest 5f tracks on the planet! With 18 of the last 19 winners NOT winning last time out out we are happy to take on Fine Wine, Live In The Dream Dusky Lord, Tees Spirit and Mid Winster, who were all last-time out winners.

While Stone Of Destiny was 3rd in the race last year and is 10lbs better off so has to be respected too.

The horse of interst is last year’s winner – MOKAATIL (e/w) @ 9/1 with BetUK – who does seem to love it here at Epsom. He won here back in April for today’s jockey Harry Davies and hasn’t run badly since at Goodwood and Chester.

He’s 5lbs higher than 12 months ago, but Davies is able to claim 5lbs so the horse comes here with the same weight. Draw 9 looks fine and with the horse having won his last three runs here, it’s hard to fault his track form.

The danger can come from THEGREATESTSHOWMAN (e/w) @ 14/1 with BetUK , who was actually second to Mokaatil here back in April. He’s dropped a pound for that run and top jockey Silvestre De Sousa takes over to ride this Amy Murphy runner.

 

4.30 – Cazoo Derby (In Memory Of Lester Piggott) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

19/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
18/20 – Raced no more than 5 times before
18/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/20 – Had won a Group race before
16/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
13/20 – Won last time out
13/20 – Won from a single-figure stall
12/20 – Favourites that were placed
11/20 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
10/20 – Irish-trained winners
8/20 – Had won a Group One before
7/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
6/20 – Won by the favourite
5/20 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/20 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
4/20 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/20 – Won over 1m4f before
1/20 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
0/20 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Desert Crown @ 9/4 with BetUK – Has been all the rage for Epsom Derby after his easy win in the Dante Stakes at York. He’ll be looking to become the first horse since Golden Horn (2015) to win both races. This well-bred Nathaniel colt is also yet to taste defeat from his opening two races and is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who has landed the Epsom Derby five times before. Looks the one to beat and a worthy Epsom Derby favourite.

Stone Age @ 9/2 with BetUKWith eight Epsom Derby wins, then anything the Aidan O’Brien yard run has to be feared. They run three – Star Of India, Changingoftheguard and Stone Age.

The last-named looks one of their main hopes too after romping away with the Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown last month. Stone Age landed that 1m2f race by an easy 5 1/2 lengths and was sent to the top of the Epsom Derby market after.

He’s since been displaced as favourite but Desert Crown, but it’s hard to fault the form of this Galileo colts form and there could be even more to come now upped again in trip to 1m4f. A leading player.

Nations Pride – @ 6/1 with BetUKSupplemented for the race after winning easily at Newmarket in a Listed race at the end of April. Has clearly impressed his connections since and this Godolphin horse comes from the Charlie Appleby yard that have won the Derby twice in the last four years. William Buick, who rode the 2018 Derby winner, rides. A fast-improving colt that enters the mix.

Changingoftheguard @ 8/1 with BetUK –  Another O’Brien runner that has a chance too. Winner of the Chester Vase last time out over 1m 4 1/2f, so we know this trip will be fine. Prior to that win was another easy winner at Dundalk over 1m2f and is now 2-from-2 since racing beyond a mile. His proven stamina will be a big plus.

Piz Badile – @ 10/1 with BetUKWill be ridden by Frankie Dettori, who has two Epsom Derby wins to his name, so is sure to be popular on the day – epsecially with the ‘once a year’ punters that see Frankie riding.

Trained by Donnacha O’Brien, this 3 year-old has won two of his three starts, including last time out in the Group Three Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown. Probably need to improve again, but has only had three career outings and there is every chance there’s more to come.

Which Horse Will Win The 2022 Epsom Derby?

DESERT CROWN @ 9/4 with BetUK gets the verdict. It was hard to not be impressed with his recent Dante Stakes win at York and with that coming on only his second career run it was all the more eye-catching.

He saw off Royal Patronage, who has some fair form in the book, by an easy 3 1/4 lengths that day and seemed to get better the further they went over that 1m 2 1/2f trip – suggesting the step up to 1m4f here will also eke out more.

Handled by trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who has five Derby wins to his name is another plus, and is also the top-rated in the field at 117.

Best Epsom Derby Outsiders

With two wins in the last four runnings of the Epsom Derby – trainer Charlie Appleby is making a name for himslef in this race. He runs three – Nahanni, Walk Of Stars and NATIONS PRIDE (e/w) @ 6/1 with BetUK.

The last-named of that trio was supplemented for the race recently which suggests connections feel he’s got a leading chance of recouping that outlay at the very least. Jockey William Buick has also picked this one of the Appleby runners, while the horse is clearly fast-improving after winning his last four races – including an easy 7 length success at HQ last time.

The other of interest at a bigger price is ROYAL PATRONAGE (e/w) @ 33/1 with BetUK. This Mark Johnston runner was runner-up in the Dante Stakes, so, yes, does have around 3 1/4 lengths to find with the winner of that race – Desert Crown.

However, this 3 year-old is one of the more experienced in the field with 8 runs and is also a proven course winner here at Epsom – winning a race by 5 lengths here last July. He also sweated up a bit the last day so did have a small excuse to say he could have go closer and that was also his first try over a longer trip (1m 2 1/2f).

 

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Note: Odds are subject to change

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Related At The Cazoo Derby Festival: We’ve got the best Epsom Derby betting sites listed that you can take advantage of many Epsom free bets. Plus, our SportsLens horse racing experts are on hand with their Epsom Derby tips, while we’ll also have the latest Epsom Derby odds and Epsom Derby results throughout the two-day Festival.


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2022 Epsom Derby Meeting Race Times and Names

Saturday 4th June 2022

  • 2:00 – Cazoo Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m2f ITV
  • 2:35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Cazoo) (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f ITV
  • 3:10 – Cazoo Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f ITV
  • 3:45 – Simpex Express ‘Dash’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV
  • 4:30 – Cazoo Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV
  • 5:15 – World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f RTV
  • 5:50 – JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f RTV

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