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Epsom Derby Trends & Tips | Best Bets For Saturday’s Epsom Race

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The Epsom Derby is the big highlight for horse racing fans on Saturday as Epsom Classic on of the biggest races of the turf flat season. All eyes will be on the unbeaten Sir Michael Stoute colt – Desert Crown – but does he tick all the main Epsom Derby trends?

To help find the winner, Andy Newton guides you through the main 2022 Epsom Derby trends and tips ahead of Saturday’s big Epsom race. Plus, we’ve the latest Epsom Derby betting odds from BetUK (Bet £10, get a £30 FREE Epsom Oaks Bet)

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Did You Know? – 16 of the last 20 Epsom Derby winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting, while 13 of the last 20 successful horses won last time out.


Find The Winner Of The 2022 Epsom Derby With Our Key Trends

4.30 – Cazoo Derby (In Memory Of Lester Piggott) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

  • 19/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
  • 18/20 – Raced no more than 5 times before
  • 18/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 16/20 – Had won a Group race before
  • 16/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 14/20 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
  • 13/20 – Won last time out
  • 13/20 – Won from a single-figure stall
  • 12/20 – Favourites that were placed
  • 11/20 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
  • 10/20 – Irish-trained winners
  • 8/20 – Had won a Group One before
  • 7/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
  • 6/20 – Won by the favourite
  • 5/20 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
  • 4/20 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
  • 4/20 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
  • 3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
  • 2/20 – Won over 1m4f before
  • 1/20 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
  • 0/20 – Run at the course before
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
  • 10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
  • Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

  • Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
  • Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020

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RELATED: Epsom Races Today – Cards, Tips & Results from Epsom Downs Races


Epsom Derby Tips and Best Bets

Most of the main players in the Epsom Derby this year fit the key trends – like having run in the last 5 weeks, having raced no more than 5 times and finishing first or second last time out.

However, the draw is now out and with 13 of the last 20 Derby winners (65%) coming from a single-figure draw this might be seen as a negative for the likely Epsom Derby favourite – Desert Crown – who has been handed draw 12.

While another of the better-faniced runners- Changingoftheguard – has also been given a high draw in 16.

Therefore, it was no shock to see these two horses drift out slightly in the Epsom Derby betting market once the draws were announced.

16 of the last 20 Derby winners had won at Group level in the past, so the recently supplemented Godolphin runner – Nations Pride – will need to overcome these as he’s only won at Listed class before.

The Frankie Dettori-ridden PIZ BADILE @ 10/1 with BetUK has been handed draw 7 and is a past Group 3 winner, so ticks a fair few boxes so is one for the shortlist, while WESTOVER (e/w) @ 28/1 with BetUK , who won the Classic Trial at Sandown last time (G3) is drawn low in 2 and seems to tick a lot of the main stats to give him a squeak as a lively outsider.

But the main Derby pick based on the trends has to be the Aidan O’Brien runner – STONE AGE @ 9/2 with BetUK The yard have won this race 8 times and with jockey Ryan Moore picking this one of the O’Brien runners then this is another plus.

He was super impressive in winning the G3 Derby Trial at Leopardstown last month (5 1/2 lengths) and is now 2-from-2 since being stepped up to 1m2f. Breeding (Galileo) also suggests the step up again to 1m4f will suit, with the only main trend that goes against him is having had 7 previous runs.

That is a slight worry, but since being raised in trip he’s clearly improved and from those opening 7 runs has only finished out of the first three once. Draw 4 looks ideal and having last won the Derby in 2013 it’s about time Moore lands another one!

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Epsom Derby Betting Odds With BetUK

Bet Highest Odds Bookmaker
Desert Crown 9/4 BetUK logo
Stone Age 9/2 BetUK logo
Nations Pride 6/1 BetUK logo
Changingoftheguard 8/1 BetUK logo
Piz Badile 10/1 BetUK logo
Star Of India 12/1 BetUK logo
Walk Of Stars 15/1 BetUK logo
Nahanni 28/1 BetUK logo
Royal Patronage 33/1 BetUK logo
Sonny Liston 40/1 BetUK logo
Westover 28/1 BetUK logo
BAR THE FIELD 25/1 BetUK logo
Note: Odds are subject to change


Related At The Cazoo Derby Festival: We’ve got the best Epsom Derby betting sites listed that you can take advantage of many Epsom free bets. Plus, our SportsLens horse racing experts are on hand with their Epsom Derby tips, while we’ll also have the latest Epsom Derby odds and Epsom Derby results throughout the two-day Festival.

Epsom Derby Recent Winners

  • 2021 – Adayar (16/1)
  • 2020 – Serpentine (25/1)
  • 2019 – Anthony Van Dyck (13/2)
  • 2018 – Masar (16/1)
  • 2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
  • 2016 – Harzand (13/2)
  • 2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
  • 2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
  • 2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
  • 2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav)
  • 2011 – Pour Moi (4/1)
  • 2010 – Workforce (6/1)
  • 2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4)
  • 2008 – New Approach (5/1)
  • 2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav)
  • 2006 – Sir Percy (6/1)
  • 2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav)
  • 2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav)
  • 2003 – Kris Kin (6/1)
  • 2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)

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Watch Adayar Winning The 2021 Epsom Derby

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2022 Epsom Derby Meeting Race Times and Names

Saturday 4th June 2022

  • 2:00 – Cazoo Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m2f ITV
  • 2:35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Cazoo) (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f ITV
  • 3:10 – Cazoo Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f ITV
  • 3:45 – Simpex Express ‘Dash’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV
  • 4:30 – Cazoo Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV
  • 5:15 – World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f RTV
  • 5:50 – JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f RTV

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