When experts give Epsom Derby tips and predictions, they’re trying to pick the winner of a very important horse race. The premier Classic in the UK has had some turn-ups in it down the years too, so this is our guide to tipping in the Epsom Downs Racecourse feature.
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When you look at tips for The Derby on Epsom Downs in Surrey, the horses discussed are expected to have big futures both on and off the track. There’s no single horse racing event in the UK today with more significance. The reason for that is simple. Winners of the Epsom Derby go on to have careers at stud.
Their influence as sires of Flat racing thoroughbreds of tomorrow cannot be understated. Galileo and Sea The Stars are just two famous examples of Epsom Derby winners tipped up by experts this century who impacted the landscape of the sport. Both prolific at stud, their progeny have won countless Group races in recent years.
Only subsequent horse racing results reveal whether a Derby winner has made it in the bloodstock and breeding industry. Finishing first comes with the lion’s share of the more than £1,000,000 purse at over £850,000 as the prize. With so much money at stake, now you can see why Epsom Derby tips matter beyond simply you finding the winner.
As an age restricted race just for three-year-olds, The Derby is almost exclusively contested by colts. Fillies can run in the Epsom Oaks over the same course and distance 24 hours earlier. When considering who to put forward in their horse racing tips on the Epsom Derby, experts must consider from and potential progress. You see the best UK sportsbooks to wager with below:
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2024 Epsom Derby Tips
Things were shaken up in the 2024 Epsom Derby betting when long-time ante-post favourite Auguste Rodin suffered defeat in another of the British Classics, the 2000 Guineas, weakening into twelfth place. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who has a record eight wins in The Derby, believes this horse can still win at Epsom now stepping up in trip.
The Derby tips that experts give need to reflect that disappointment for Auguste Rodin. While his no-show on the Rowley Mile occurred, plenty of other three-year-old colts advertised their claims of Classic glory, leaving tipsters with plenty to ponder.
Epsom Derby 2024 tips have form lines from both the UK and Ireland to consider. Both nations have their trials run in springtime, although it isn’t always necessarily the winners to take out of those races. After all, it’s all about trainers and jockeys getting their horses right for Derby day itself and not the prep run.
This year’s Epsom Derby tips must remember one thing. There could be even more to come from the three-year-olds who may have just had one or two outings before the big race. Every horse wants to be at peak performance on Derby day itself. Winning en route to Epsom doesn’t do their chances any harm, though.
Betfred Derby Tips – The Leading Contenders
Most 2024 Epsom Derby tips surround one or other of the leading contenders, so it’s worth looking at their profiles in more details. Here are the first four in the ante post betting now that all major Classic trials have taken place:
Auguste Rodin
- Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
- Owners: Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Mrs J Magnier & Westerberg
- Sire: Deep Impact
- Dam: Rhododendron
- Form: 2111-0
- Latest Derby odds: 4/1 with 888sport (from 9/2)
With that record of eight Epsom Derby winners, and three of those coming since 2017 in Wings Of Eagles, Anthony Van Dyck and Serpentine, Aidan O’Brien is a real master trainer. His leading bullet to fire this year remains Auguste Rodin in spite of a poor run at Newmarket races in the 2000 Guineas on reappearance.
Bred to better over the Derby distance, he clearly got a mile well as a juvenile, so running over further now is very much a step in the right direction. There are excuses for the no-show on the Rowley Mile too, as Auguste Rodin suffered interference early on and was never travelling thereafter. He’s perhaps better judged on his two-year-old form.
That includes a win during Irish Champions Weekend and Group 1 glory on bottomless ground in the Veterm Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. Lots of Epsom Derby tips will make the case that Auguste Rodin didn’t give his true running the last day and that we can expect better from him now going up in distance.
Military Order
- Trainer: Charlie Appleby
- Owners: Godolphin
- Sire: Frankel
- Dam: Anna Salai
- Form: 41-11
- Best Derby odds: 9/2 with BoyleSports (from 7/2)
Charlie Appleby has won The Derby twice in the last five years. That gives Godolphin’s retained trainer a strong recent record in the premier Classic thanks to victories for Masar (2018) and Adayar (2021). From a plethora of initial early closing entries, the boys in blue rely solely on Military Order and that’s a major vote of confidence in him.
After a backend novice success on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket races as a juvenile, this colt by the legendary Frankel has looked even better tackling further this spring. Military Order built on a taking reappearance win over 1m 2f when making all the running at Newbury by landing the Lingfield Derby Trial.
That race has produced two Derby winners in the last four years. Military Order did get a dream run up the inner on the home bend and gaps might not appear so kindly for him at Epsom, but he still kept on really well all the way to the line. It was a fine effort in the circumstances with officials at Lingfield races having to switch the event to the All-Weather from the turf track due to wet weather during the week.
Whether that has any bearing on what Military Order has achieved remains to be seen. Punters and bookmakers alike certainly don’t think so with usurping Auguste Rodin as the market leader off the back of that victory. They’ve since swapped placed in the market again. It’s why Military Order features prominently among the tips for the Epsom Derby with experts.
Arrest
- Trainers: John & Thady Gosden
- Owners: Juddmonte
- Sire: Frankel
- Dam: Nisriyna
- Form: 3112-1
- Latest Derby odds: 9/2 with Spreadex (from 7/1)
The Juddmonte silks of the late Prince Khalid have been carried to victory in The Derby three times, but only once since 1993. On the 30-year anniversary of Commander In Chief’s victory, Arrest would be a fitting winner in these famous colours that last tasted glory with Workforce. John Gosden, who now shares training duties on the license with son Thady, has two successes in the premier Classic as well.
Arrest won a couple of minor races as a two-year-old before engaging in a ding-dong tussle with Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud at the end of last season. While we’ll get to the winner later on in our look at Epsom Derby tips below, Arrest has come out and done something that one hasn’t – won this term.
His reappearance victory in the Chester Vase, confirming French form with the third Adelaide River, on rain softened ground is an effort you can mark him up for. Frankie Dettori eased Arrest down and allowed the colt to drift right over to the stands’ side rail. If the iconic jockey had ridden him out all the way to the line and kept him straight, then who knows how far they would’ve won by.
Arrest simply looked value for tons more than the 6.5 lengths official margin of victory at any rate. Whether conditions at Epson come up quite as testing as at Chester races remains to be seen, but this horse is clearly one who has progressed from his juvenile days into this campaign as a Classic campaign.
Passenger
- Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
- Owners: Flaxman Stables Ireland
- Sire: Ulysses
- Dam: Dilmun
- Form: 13
- Latest Derby odds: 7/1 with bet365 (from 11/2)
Another set of powerful owner-breeders in the Niarchos family through their Flaxman Stables operation stumped up £75,000 on 29 May and supplemented Passenger for a tilt at The Derby. All of the top horse racing betting sites expected this to happen, giving trainer Sir Michael Stoute a chance of saddling back-to-back winners of the Classic.
Unraced as a juvenile, Passenger took the Wood Ditton at Newmarket on his racecourse debut. Connections then paid to put him in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York races where he experienced absolutely no luck in-running whatsoever. Richard Kingscote blames himself as Passenger ran on under the jockey, who partnered Desert Crown to victory on the Knavesmire and then at Epsom 12 months ago, when finally in the clear to force a dead heat for third.
We’ll never know for sure what would’ve happened if gaps appeared at the right time. Those giving Epsom Derby tips that support Passenger are adamant that if he’d got a clear run, then he’d probably be favourite. On that basis, there may be some juice in his odds as the bookies shortened after connections forked out once again to supplement their horse.
Sprewell
- Trainer: Jessica Harrington
- Owners: Mohamed Khalid Mohamed Abdulrahim
- Sire: Churchill
- Dam: Lahaleeb
- Form: 42-11
- Latest Derby odds: 12/1 with Betfred (from 11/1)
Followers of Irish horse racing will know that Jessica Harrington has been battling cancer, so the sentimental favourite among punters for The Derby this year is Sprewell. Raced on no quicker than soft ground in his career so far, he finished in front of fellow Emerald Isle raider White Birch on his final start as a two-year-old.
Sprewell has since taken his form to a new level this spring. After breaking the maiden tag in a minor race at Naas, he followed-up in Ireland’s official Derby Trial at Leopardstown. That same Group 3 contest over 1m 2f has thrown up plenty of horses to contest the UK’s premier Classic.
If there is one concern that any good Epsom Derby tips should be up front and honest about regarding Sprewell, then it’s the great unknown of whether he’ll act on good ground. It’s always been pretty testing underfoot in his career to date, so if betting on him, punters are gambling on him handling a sounder surface.
The Foxes
- Trainer: Andrew Balding
- Owners: King Power Racing
- Sire: Churchill
- Dam: Tanaghum
- Form: 4911-21
- Latest Derby odds: 12/1 with 10bet (from 14/1)
Andrew Balding has enjoyed a couple of big-priced colts hitting the frame in The Derby in recent years, but The Foxes isn’t heading to Epsom Downs under the radar. Far from it, in fact, following his Dante victory when we last saw him. After landing the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket on his final outing as a juvenile, The Foxes swerved the 2000 Guineas despite a course and distance victory on the Rowley Mile under his belt.
That always looked significant as there was absolutely nothing wrong with his effort when runner-up on reappearance in the Craven Stakes. Connections instead opted to step The Foxes up in trip and go to York. He prevailed there by a neck, split almost the width of the Knavesmire from Irish raider White Birch.
A full-brother to the Aidan O’Brien filly Perotan, the distaff side of The Foxes’ pedigree brings plenty of stamina to the table as that one won in Listed company over further last season. He’s also out of a prolific broodmare, so punters that enjoy studying the breeding aspect of thoroughbred can learn plenty about his family. There are worse each way tips for the Epsom Derby than The Foxes, given the trainer’s fine recent record of getting colts placed.
White Birch
- Trainer: John Joseph Murphy
- Owner: Mrs C C Regalado-Gonzalez
- Sire: Ulysses
- Dam: Diagnostic
- Form: 51-12
- Latest Derby odds: 14/1 with bet365 (from 12/1)
Lovers of a grey can feel they have live chance in The Derby in White Birch. A shock 22/1 winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown on reappearance, his form through the runner-up ties in closely with fellow Irish raider Sprewell. White Birch proved his victory was no fluke when a fast-finishing neck runner-up in the Dante at York last time out.
He was the only horse that came from off the pace to get into the places. Had White Birch not been so slowly away, then The Foxes may not have won. That’s a what if, though, and what’s not in doubt is strong finishing efforts from this colt over a mile-and-a-quarter. Everything about the way he’s shaped in both starts this season suggests that White Birch will appreciate going up in trip.
Provided he doesn’t give himself too much to do leaving the stalls again, plenty of shrewd observers feel he’s a bit of each way value for the premier Classic. There is some juice in his price for those looking for Epsom Derby tips at bigger odds, and this may be one of those times where it could pay to look at those in-behind the winners of trials.
Dubai Mile
- Trainer: Charlie Johnston
- Owner: Ahmad Al Shaikh
- Sire: Roaring Lion
- Dam: Beach Bunny
- Form: 41121-5
- Latest Derby odds: 20/1 with LiveScore Bet (from 14/1)
Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal both went close to pulling off major shocks in the Derby when runner-up for owner Ahmad Al Shaikh, so Dubai Mile is of obvious interest to punters in the same silks. As one of the bigger yards and magnates in the Yorkshire Dales horse racing hub of Middleham, the Johnston team have also had a near miss in the premier Classic with Dee Ex Bee.
Dubai Mile had a typically busy juvenile campaign for the stable progressing to a Group 1 win in France. The drop back in trip for his return to action in the 2000 Guineas was always against him, but he was far from disgraced as a keeping on fifth. Connections expect more from Dubai Mile going back up in trip.
Stamina is the one concern with him, however, as he’s the ninth foal out of the mare and none of those siblings have won over The Derby distance of 1m 4f. Dubai Mile’s sire, Roaring Lion, hit the frame when third to Masar in 2018, so even if it emerges he doesn’t quite get the trip, backers are looking at place prospects.
Epsom Derby Day Tips
Now that you’ve seen some of the Epsom Derby 2024 tips, it’s also worth remembering there is more than one race on the card. We’re not saying that The Derby isn’t the main event but there are other opportunities to have a bet as well.
While you consider the Epsom Derby tips put forward here, think about the rest of the action as well. The Derby is a two-day festival with another Classic headlining the Friday card too. That is the Epsom Oaks with horse racing betting tips available on that feature race for fillies too.
Take the Epsom Dash, a Heritage Handicap sprint, for example. While The Derby betting tips demand a horse with stamina and speed, winning this 5f contest that is over inside a minute is all about pace. There is also the fact that the Epsom Dash isn’t off level weights like The Derby to consider as well.
Epsom Derby day tips also look at two Group 3 races over an extended mile in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes for fillies and mares and the Diomed Stakes. The latter race honours the memory of the first-ever Derby winner of the same name from way back in 1780. There are also other handicaps at Epsom races today to bet on, so look out for tips on those.
Top Tips for The Epsom Derby
Before we’re through here, we also wanted to pass on some general Epsom Derby tips to you. These come with no guarantees of course, but following the advice we asked our experts for can at least help you reach better decisions when betting on the big race. Follow these pointers when looking for a horse to bet on in The Derby:
Follow the Trials
By keeping a close eye on recognised Derby trials, you can see how the betting develops. Classic contenders come to the fore and fall by the wayside as each prep race for Epsom comes throughout the spring. All tips for The Derby that you encounter will be based on experts doing the same thing, assessing the action.
You may spot a horse running an eye-catching race in defeat to take forward to Epsom, especially if they are staying on strongly at the finish over 1m 2f. Remember, it is not all about the bare result of the trials. All good Epsom Derby tips will tell you that.
Check Horses’ Pedigrees
Breeding is an underrated aspect of helping to find you winners. If a horse is to be successful in The Derby, then it needs stamina, speed and a touch of class. Potential clues to all of this can be found in the pedigree. Looking at what the sire and dam, that’s the father and mother in layman’s terms, did on the track may provide answers.
When giving horse racing tips for betting on the Epsom Derby, the experts all consider breeding carefully. They won’t put forward a horse with dubious stamina or something by a sire that disappointed in The Derby. With a bit of research, you can discover which of this year’s blueblood thoroughbreds may be best suited by this unique test.
Consider Potential Improvers
There is often so little form to actually go on, compared to National Hunt horses anyway, that Epsom Derby betting tips are often based on potential progress. Racehorses improve at different rates and times, so there’s no exact science here. It is worth remembering that most will strip fitter for a prep run.
Horses seldom go to The Derby unraced in the spring. They have to be at their best to win a race at this elite level. Progress is everything and that suits stables that have target trainers. The Epsom Derby tips you read will often assume improvement in a horse from its two-year-old days or from race to race.
Look at Temperament
Epsom Downs and Derby day is both a big day out and tough track for young horses to handle. The course is an undulating one with twists and turns. It doesn’t suit every horse, nor does this major sporting occasion. Some blow their chances by acting up in the preliminaries, being keen on their way to post or in the early stages of the race.
You can’t know how horses will behave beforehand, but any previous win at Epsom is a plus when considering The Derby tips offered. Avoid any horses with a history of misbehaving in the stalls or pulling too hard. As much equine energy as possible should be conserved for the business end of the race.
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Who is the favourite for the Epsom Derby?
According to the Epsom Derby odds and latest Epsom Derby tips, Auguste Rodin is the ante post favourite for the 2023 edition. Despite a no-show in the 2000 Guineas, he took that spot back from Military order, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial, one of the best recognised trials for the premier British Classic, on his last outing.
What is the best draw at Epsom for The Derby?
Stall 10 has produced 10 winners of The Derby at Epsom since starting gates were introduced in 1967. Betfred Derby tips may change to reflect the draw once it is made for this year’s race.
What is the fastest time ever for the Epsom Derby?
Workforce holds the Epsom Derby track record, winning 2:31.33 back in 2010. A fast run race is an indicator of good or good to firm ground. Make sure that any Epsom Derby tips you read consider horses that act on the going.
Can geldings run in the Epsom Derby?
They cannot and there is a valid reason for this. Geldings can further the pursuit of the thoroughbred as they cannot reproduce. All Epsom Derby tips you read about should mention three-year-old colts (and on rare occasions fillies) only.
Jamie Clark Senior Sports Editor
Jamie Clark puts his horse racing knowledge at your disposal by helping you find winners on all the day to day and major events in the sport from around the world. An equine expert who grew up surrounded by betting, he rejoined SportsLens in 2021 after several years working elsewhere in the industry. That included a three-year stint editing Coral bookmakers' digital platforms prior to its merger with fellow bookie Ladbrokes. Jamie is here to help, educate and inform punters about the top value horse racing bets around on any given day. Read detailed runners guides on feature events from him and learn about the most important racecourses, plus free betting tips from the best of British, Irish, French and other key international meetings.Jamie Clark puts his horse racing knowledge at your disposal by helping you find winners on all the day to day and major events in the sport from around the world. An equine expert who grew up surrounded by betting, he rejoined SportsLens in 2021 after several years working elsewhere in the industry. That included a three-year stint editing Coral bookmakers' digital platforms prior to its merger with fellow bookie Ladbrokes. Jamie is here to help, educate and inform punters about the top value horse racing bets around on any given day. Read detailed runners guides on feature events from him and learn about the most important racecourses, plus free betting tips from the best of British, Irish, French and other key international meetings.View All Posts By Jamie ClarkPopular Pages