2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends On Day One: Key Cheltenham Stats To Find The Tuesday Winners

Use our 2023 Cheltenham Festival trends on day one to help narrow down the fields. You can use the key Cheltenham stats to find the best profile of horses based on past winners. Cheltenham trends often have a habit or repeating themselves – so this is a great way to find winners on day one!

Cheltenham Festival Trends on Day One: Tuesday 14th March 2023

Plenty to get stuck into on the opening day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival with seven races. As always, the action gets going with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 1:30pm – a race we saw Constitution Hill bolt-up in last year.

The Championship race of the day is the Champion Hurdle at 3:30pm. The already mentioned Constitution Hill is the red-hot banker for the race as he looks to give trainer Nicky Henderson a nineth success in the contest.

If Constitution Hill returns 4/11 or shorter – he’ll become the shortest-priced favourite in the history of the Champion Hurdle. While he’ll look to become the first Supreme winner to follow-up in the race since Bula in 1971.

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2022 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL 9/4 jfav
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville
UK or Irish Trained: UK

2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends

POSITIVES

• 23 of the last 26 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 19 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 11 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 10 of the last 11 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
• 21 of the last 28 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 17 of the last 31 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 16 of the last 18 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 10 years
• 8 of the last 10 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
• 26 of the last 28 winners had raced that same calendar year
• 6 of the last 9 winners had been rated 153 or more
• 9 of the last 10 winners returned a single-figure price
• 9 of the last 14 winners were previous bumper winners
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 10 runnings

NEGATIVES

• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 26. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Just 3 of the last 20 winners came here unbeaten
• Just 1 of the last 20 winners aged 7 or older
• Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
• 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
• Since 1992 all horses (38) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008

2.10 – Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2022 Winner: EDWARDSTONE (5/2 fav)
Trainer: Alan King
Jockey: Tom Cannon
UK or Irish Trained: UK

2023 Arkle Novices’ Chase Trends

POSITIVES

• 14 of the last 18 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 17 of the last 23 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• The last 13 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
• 21 of the last 23 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 13 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over fences before
• 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 15 of the last 20 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 14 of the last 19 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
• 8 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over fences
• 8 of the last 11 winners trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson (4 each)
• 8 of the last 11 favourites have won
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 8 runnings (all French-bred)

NEGATIVES

• Only 2 of the last 36 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 32 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 4 of the last 31 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
• Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
• Ex-flat horses have a poor record
• Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear

    2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2022 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox
UK or Irish Trained: UK

2023 Ultima Handicap Chase Trends

POSITIVES

• 18 of the last 23 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 15 of the last 22 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 18 of the last 22 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 22 were novices or second season chasers
• 8 of the last 15 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 14 of the last 22 runnings
• 9 of the last 20 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• 5 of the last 8 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
• 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Trophy that season
• 11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before
• Northern-based runners have a good record
• 9 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
• 10 of the last 13 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note

NEGATIVES

• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 18 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8. The 2022 winner (Corach Rambler carried 10st 2lbs)
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 54 to even get placed
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 54 runnings (since 1967)
• Irish-trained runners are 0-35 in the last 16 runnings
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 24
• Only 3 winners in the last 14 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1

    3.30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2022 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE (1^st 8/11 fav)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
UK or Irish: Irish

2023 Champion Hurdle Trends

POSITIVES

• 33 of the last 39 won last time out
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (10 of last 12)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 20 of the last 24 runnings between them
• 9 of the last 14 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• 27 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (11 of last 16)
• 14 of the last 24 winners had won at the Festival before
• 25 of the last 38 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 6 places in last 15 runnings)
• 14 of the last 27 winners started as flat horses
• The last 8 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 6 years
• 6 of the last 14 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 9 runnings
• 9 of the last 14 winners were (4) Mullins or (5) Henderson-trained
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 24 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 13 (10 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 12 runnings

NEGATIVES

• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 111 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 39 runnings)
• Just 1 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26^th Dec) winners are just 4 from 32, but – Epatante 2020) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
• The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was 52 years ago (Bula)
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 19 years)
• Only 2 of the last 24 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before

    4.10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2022 Winner: MARIE’S ROCK
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville
UK or Irish Trained: UK

2023 Mares’ Hurdle Trends

POSITIVES

• Follow Irish-trained mares (12 of last 15)
• The favourite (or 2^nd fav) have won 11 of the last 15 runnings
• 8 of the last 15 favourites have won
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• 10 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 11 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
• 11 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 12 of the last 12 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 14 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 15 winners
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

NEGATIVES

• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 3-86
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Dieux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 1 winner aged 8+ (Quevega)
• Just 1 outright favourite in the last 8 runnings
• Just one winner from last 31 runners to wear headgear have won

    4.50 – Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2022 Winner: BRAZIL (10/1)
Trainer: Padraig Roche
Jockey: Mark Walsh
UK or Irish Trained: Irish

2023 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle Trends

POSITIVES

• 10 of the last 18 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• 9 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
• Respect Fillies
• 12 of the last 18 winners carried 11st+
• 9 of the last 18 winners won last time out
• 8 of the last 12 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 18 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (3 of last 10) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 11 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 11 priced 25/1+)
• 12 of the last 18 winners returned a double-figure price
• 13 of the last 18 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 13 of the last 18 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 15 winners were British-trained
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 13 runnings

NEGATIVES

• Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 38 between them
• Just 3 of the last 18 winners rated 135+
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 18
• Horses bred in Britain are 0-59 (last 14 years)
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 18 (just 2 placed in top 5 too)
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before

    5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

2022 Winner: STATTLER 2/1
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Patrick Mullins
UK or Irish Trained: Irish

2023 National Hunt Chase Trends

POSITIVES

• 13 of the last 21 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 12 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (23 of the last 32)
• 9 of the last 13 winners had run 5+ times over fences
• 10 of the last 12 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
• 6 of the last 12 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 8 of the last 16 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 9 of the last 13 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 16 rides)
• Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 8 of the last 12 (3, Codd, 3 Mullins, 2 O’Connor)
• Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 8
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 10 runners
• 3 of the last 5 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 8 of the last 12 winners Irish-trained
• 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)

NEGATIVES

• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 81 since 1989
• Just 4 of the last 12 winners were top-rated
• Favourites have won just 3 of the last 13 runnings
• Just 2 of the last 32 winners were aged 6 years-old
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 12)
• Just 2 winners in the last 14 returned bigger than 12/1
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race – he’s currently 0 from 19
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race

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