Newbury racecourse stages it’s BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Day this Saturday (5th March) and we have our best betting tip for the race and free bet to back it with.
This Grade Three Greatwood Gold Cup (1.50) should probably be re-named the ‘Paul Nicholls Gold Cup’ as the former champion trainer has made this race his own in recent years – winning the prize a staggering nine times in the last 17 runnings.
Read on for our exclusive tip for the Greatwood Gold Cup on Saturday afternoon’s Newbury race card.
Did You Know? 5 of the last 17 Greatwood Gold Cup winners were aged 8 or younger and had raced in the last 6 weeks.
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Newbury racing tips: Greatwood Gold Cup
1.50 – Greatwood Gold Cup tip – Dublin Four @5/1 with BetVictor
Dublin Four was last seen taking a tumble at Ludlow in December, but was still in with a squeak that day. Connections have clearly given him plenty of time to get over that fall (73 days) but coming here fresh is certainly a plus.
Prior to hitting the deck he’d won well here at Newbury and with that coming off a 200-day absence from the course, then his latest break is not a concern.
The Return To 2m4f And Newbury a Positive
This 8 year-old is also a big fan of Newbury racecourse having won his last two outings here, while having tried 3m a few times of late you feel the drop back to this 2m 4f is another key pointer to his chance.
He does stay a tad further than this – having won over 2m 6 1/2f here last March, but this looks his favoured distance. Ground conditions should also be fine as he’s a horse that has won on a good and also soft surfaces, plus has run close on heavy should the Berkshire track get any more rain.
Dublin Four Ticks a Lot Of The Key Trends
With 16 of the last 17 winners carrying 11st 5lbs or less, then Dublin Four ticks this weight trend with only 10st 6lbs to carry. We’ve also seen 15 of the last 17 Greatwood Gold Cup winners aged 8 or younger which is a further plus for this Fergal O’Brien-trained 8 year-old.
Paddy Brennan Booked To Ride Dublin Four
The final thing to note is that Dublin Four is normally ridden by jockey Kielan Woods – he’s ridden him in 14 of his last 15 starts. However, this horse has recently switched to the Fergal O’Brien yard (2 runs ago) and with Paddy Brennan riding the bulk of O’Brien’s runners these days the former Cheltenham Gold Cup winning jockey gets the leg up.
Brennan will have a vague memory of this horse though, as he rode him back in January 2019 when Dublin Four was trained by John Joseph Hanlon.
Other Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Fancies
Senior Citizen @8/1 with BetVictor
Ran a cracker in the Grand Sefton Chase over the National fences at Aintree back in November (2nd) and has been kept fresh for this since. This Alan King-trained 9 year-old was also fourth in this race 12 months ago so has pedigree in the contest. The 119-day break is also fine as he’s another horse that seems to enjoy racing fresh, but the only niggle would be that he’s now rated 10lbs higher than last year’s run in the race, when a 3 ½ length fourth.
Glen Forsa @9/2 with BetVictor
Bounced back to form last time at Musselburgh with a 5-length win and the handicapper has only raised him 5lbs for that. Having been rated as high as 154 just a few years ago, then his current rating of just 134 still suggests he’s very well-handicapped on that older form. Trip and ground are fine too, but the trends negative would be his age (10) and the fact he’s never raced here at Newbury before.
Greatwood Gold Cup Trends To Help You Find The Winner
- 16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
- 15/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
- 15/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
- 14/17 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
- 13/17 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
- 12/17 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
- 10/17 – Favourites placed
- 9/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
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