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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Saturday Picks – March 5th

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Andrew Mount's

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew has uncovered some interesting statistical angles for Saturday’s racing which he shares below…

There’s some cracking racing action on Saturday March 5th and Andrew has five selections at Newbury, Lingfield, Doncaster and Navan. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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LINGFIELD 2.34

RED FLYER (system – Kempton low-drawn handicap winners next time out)

A very low draw (stall 1, 2 or 3) is perhaps not the advantage it’s perceived to be on Kempton’s Polytrack, as it sometimes prompts jockeys to go too quickly to hold an inside position rather than face the prospect of being shuffled back and having to come wide round the outside of the field. This winter (since the beginning of October) stall 1, 2 or 3 Kempton handicap winners followed up 14 times from 40 attempts (35%) for a profit of £22.43 to the usual £1 stake. RED FLYER, who did well to come late off a steady pace from stall 2 when scoring at the Sunbury venue last time, can make it 15 from 41.

 

NEWBURY 3.37

DORKING BOY (system – 8yos in seniors’ handicap hurdles)

Seniors’ handicap hurdles are rare events but, like in the equivalent races over fences (veterans’ handicap chases), the youngest horses win more than their fair share. Backing all the eight-year-olds  – the youngest age group eligible to take part – would have found nine winners from 52 runners for a profit of £25.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. There are several qualifiers in this 2m4f contest with DORKING BOY the pick. This course and distance winner wouldn’t have appreciated the small field/tactical affair when runner-up at Huntingdon last time and should encounter a stronger gallop here.

 

DONCASTER 4.05

SULTANS PRIDE (system – last-time out winners in 3m+ handicap hurdles, top speed)

In the past ten years had we simply backed any horse in a 3m handicap hurdle who won its latest start and had the best last-time-out speed figure (according to Proform’s ratings), we’d have won 155 of our 601 bets and made a profit of £71.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. Two horses qualify in this race – IMPHAL and SULTAN’S PRIDE but the former prefers good ground and has been scratched once or twice recently because of soft conditions and that could happen again here. SULTAN’S PRIDE won’t be inconvenienced by soft going and has a four from six record since undergoing wind surgery.

 

NAVAN 4.32

HILLTOP SUPREME (system – 10yos in veterans’ handicap chases)

Ten-year-olds, the youngest age group eligible to take part, out-perform their older rivals in veterans’ handicap chases and HILLTOP SUPREME looks especially interesting in this 3m handicap chase. Best at this time of year, his record in March reads 6111 (3-4).

 

LINGFIELD 4.54

ALJARYAAL (system – sire Siyouni, 4yo+, Polytrack)

Progeny of the sire Siyouni take time to mature and also enjoy a Polytrack surface. Backing those aged at least four, who were running at Chelmsford, Dundalk, Kempton and Lingfield – the four Polytrack venues – would have found 31 winners from 153 bets (20.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £51.48 to a £1 level stake at SP. ALJARYAAL was a 5-2 winner on this system in a 2m handicap at Lingfield on February 26th and can follow up over the same trip and track today.

 

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