Use our 2023 Epsom Derby trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. Including 90% of the last 21 winners placed 1st or 2nd last time out, while 33% of favourites since 2002 have landed the big English Classic horse race.
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Epsom Derby Trends to Help You Find The 2023 Winner
The fourth English Classic was first run in 1780 so it’s no surprise many Epsom Derby trends have built up over the years.
Last year we saw the Sir Michael Stoute yard winning their sixth Derby when Desert Crown powered home and the veteran trainer will be hoping for a repeat with Passenger if connections fork out the supplement fee for the Dante Stakes third.
Another stable that have a top record in the Epsom Derby is Aidan O’Brien. Well, when we say ‘top record’ we mean the best ever record!
With 8 wins in the famous English Classic O’Brien is the winning most trainer in the history of the race – with his haul of successes starting only in 2001 with Galileo. He’ll be hoping for win number 9 on June 3rd with Auguste Rodin looking one of his main 2023 Epsom Derby runners.
Godolphin will also be looking for their third Derby winner since 2018 and have a live chance with Military Order, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial last time out. While all the headlines are likely to be grabbed by Frankie Dettori, who will be riding in his last Epsom Derby. The two-time previous winning rider is hanging up his boots at the end of the season and will be hoping to steal the prize with a horse called Arrest.
What Date & Time Is The 2023 Epsom Derby?
📅Time/Date: 1:30pm (Saturday 3rd June 2023)
🏇Racecourse: Epsom
💰 Purse/Winner: £850,650
📺 TV: Racing TV / ITV
🎲 Odds: Auguste Rodin 7/2 | Military Order 4/1 | Arrest 9/2 | Passenger 13/2
Look For Horses That Have Raced 5 Or Less Times
When looking at the Epsom Derby trends a good place to start is to see how many previous runs your fancy has had. With 19 of the last 21 winners racing no more than 5 times this is a useful stat that can rule out a few.
Of the main players this year, recent Dante Stakes winner The Foxes would fall down with 6 past runs.
90% Of The Last 21 Winners Finished 1st Or 2nd Last Time
Next up is to look for horses that finished first or second last time out. Again 19 of the last 21 Derby winners headed to Epsom off the back of a gold or silver last time out.
Yes, most will tick this Epsom Derby trend, but the main Aidan O’Brien runner Auguste Rodin, who was unplaced in the 2000 Guineas last time, has this to overcome.
Recent Winners Have Won 67% Of Runnings Since 2002
Following on from the last Derby trend, we can take this a bit further with 67% of the last 21 winners having won their most recent race.
The main players – Military Order, Arrest Sprewell and The Foxes all won last time out, but White Birch, Passenger (if supplemented) and Auguste Rodin didn’t.
81% Of The Last 21 Winners Returned 7/1 Or Shorter
Yes, since 2017 the Epsom Derby has thrown up a few bigger-priced winners with Wings Of Eagles (40/1), Masar (16/1), Serpentine (25/1) and Adayar (16/1), so a small word of caution here.
However, the longer-term Derby trends tell us that 17 of the last 21 winners returned 7/1 or shorter.
This year – those likely to be priced in this region will be Military Order, Arrest and Auguste Rodin.
RELATED: Epsom Derby Runners 2023: Military Order Heading The Betting
90% Of The Last 10 Winners Came From Stalls 7 or higher
Many horse racing punters think that with the Derby being run over 1m4f the draw doesn’t really come into play.
But with Epsom a unique track that has several turns, then having a good position right from the start can be a big plus. This is backed up with 8 of the last 10 winners coming stalls 7-12 (inc), with three winners from stall 12 (2 of the last 3) and two from the 10 draw.
Adayar was the also the only winner from stall 1 in the last 21 years.
Irish Trained Horses Have Won 48% Since 2002
The last two Derby winners have come from Newmarket-based yards (Charlie Appleby and Sir Michael Stoute), but it’s worth noting that the Irish have won almost half of the last 21 runnings (48%).
Of course, the dominance of Aidan O’Brien is one of the reasons for this record but Sea The Stars and Harzard for John Oxx and Dermort Weld also added to this.
RELATED: Which Horse will Frankie Dettori ride in the 2023 Derby?
What Is The Epsom Derby Favourites Record Like?
We’ve seen 13 of the last 21 Epsom Derby favourites placed but they’ve also a fair record of winning too.
Since 2002 favourite backers have been rewarded 7 times which works out at a ‘not too shabby’ 33% strike-rate.
The 2023 Derby favourite might be Military Order, but with the Frankie Dettori factor, his ride Arrest could easily come in for support in the betting.
Aidan O’Brien Is Mr Epsom Derby
We’ve already touched on the top Derby record of Aidan O’Brien – he’s won the race a record-breaking 8 times and is the most successful trainer in the history of the race.
O’Brien’s first win came in 2001 with Galileo, who has also gone onto sire many other Derby winners for the Ballydoyle man. His most recent winner was the shock winner Serpentine, who led from the front and never saw another horse in the race.
Aidan O’Brien is also no stranger to winning the Derby with one of his second or third string horses – he’s had 25/1 and 40/1 winners since 2017, so don’t rule any of his out.
Charlie Appleby and Sir Michael Stoute Respected Too
With six Derby winners that started in 1981 with the famous Shergar Sir Michael Stoute is another man to note in the race. He also took the prize 12 months ago with Desert Crown.
Godolphin’s main handler Charlie Appleby is also a man to note – he’s won the race twice since 2018 and could have one of the big fancies again in Military Order.
What’s The Best Epsom Derby Trial?
The are several races that horses take in before the Derby – including the Lingfield Derby Trial, Leopardstown Derby Trial, Dee Stakes and Chester Vase – but the best at the moment is the Dante Stakes at York.
Last year’s Derby winner Desert Crown won the Dante and followed up at Epsom the next month, while over the years 11 horses have done the double.
18 of the last 20 Dante winners ran in the Derby, with 5 winning.
This year’s Dante Stakes winner was The Foxes, who beat White Birch (2nd) and Passenger (3rd).
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Epsom Derby Trends: The Last 21 Runnings
See below our in-depth Epsom Derby trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these 2023 Epsom stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 20/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
- 19/21 – Raced no more than 5 times before
- 19/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 17/21 – Had won a Group race before
- 17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/21 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
- 14/21 – Won last time out
- 13/21 – Won from a single-figure stall
- 13/21 – Favourites that were placed
- 12/21 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
- 10/21 – Irish-trained winners
- 8/21 – Had won a Group One before
- 7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
- 7/21 – Won by the favourite
- 5/21 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
- 5/21 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
- 5/21 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
- 4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
- 2/21 – Won over 1m4f before
- 1/21 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
- 0/21 – Run at the course before
- The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
- 11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
- Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
- Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
- Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020
Epsom Derby Recent Winners
- 2022 – Desert Crown (5/2 fav)
- 2021 – Adayar (16/1)
- 2020 – Serpentine (25/1)
- 2019 – Anthony Van Dyck (13/2)
- 2018 – Masar (16/1)
- 2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
- 2016 – Harzand (13/2)
- 2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
- 2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
- 2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
Epsom Derby Runners and Latest Betting Odds
We take a look at the latest 2023 Epsom Derby odds from BetUK, where you can also get a £30 free bet to use on the race.
- Auguste Rodin @ 7/2
- Military Order @ 4/1
- Arrest @ 9/2
- Passenger @ 13/2
- The Foxes @ 11/1
- Sprewell @ 12/1
- White Birch @ 12/1
- Artistic Star @ 16/1
- Dubai Mile @ 18/1
- San Antonio @ 20/1
- Waipiro @ 25/1
- Adelaide River @ 40/1
- King Of Steel @ 66/1
- Dear My Friend @ 150/1
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WATCH: Desert Crown Winning The 2022 Epsom Derby
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