When experts give Epsom Derby tips and predictions, they’re trying to pick the winner of a very important horse race. The premier Classic in the UK has had some turn-ups in it down the years too, so this is our guide to tipping in the Epsom Downs Racecourse feature.
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When you look at tips for The Derby on Epsom Downs in Surrey, the horses discussed are expected to have big futures both on and off the track. There’s no single horse racing event in the UK today with more significance. The reason for that is simple. Winners of the Epsom Derby go on to have careers at stud.
Their influence as sires of Flat racing thoroughbreds of tomorrow cannot be understated. Galileo and Sea The Stars are just two famous examples of Epsom Derby winners tipped up by experts this century who impacted the landscape of the sport. Both prolific at stud, their progeny have won countless Group races in recent years.
Only subsequent horse racing results reveal whether a Derby winner has made it in the bloodstock and breeding industry. Finishing first comes with the lion’s share of the more than £1,000,000 purse at over £850,000 as the prize. With so much money at stake, now you can see why Epsom Derby tips matter beyond simply you finding the winner.
As an age restricted race just for three-year-olds, The Derby is almost exclusively contested by colts. Fillies can run in the Epsom Oaks over the same course and distance 24 hours earlier. When considering who to put forward in their horse racing tips on the Epsom Derby, experts must consider from and potential progress. You see the best UK sportsbooks to wager with below:
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2024 Epsom Derby Tips
The 2024 Epsom Derby betting has kept long-time ante-post favourite City Of Troy at the head of the market despite failing to fire in another of the British Classics, the 2000 Guineas, weakening tamely away. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who has a record nine wins in The Derby, believes this horse can still win at Epsom now stepping up in trip.
Connections hope to repeat what they did with Auguste Rodin, who similarly disappointed at Newmarket races but won the premier Classic in 2023. All of The Derby tips that experts give need to reflect that disappointment for City Of Troy.
The problem is that Epsom hopefuls seem thin on the ground this year. Sandown Classic Trial winner Arabian Crown misses the race through injury, while Chester races hero Hidden Law didn’t make it home from the Roodee after landing the Vase.
Epsom Derby 2024 tips have form lines from both the UK and Ireland to consider. Both nations have their trials run in springtime, although it isn’t always necessarily the winners to take out of those races. After all, it’s all about trainers and jockeys getting their horses right for Derby day itself and not the prep run.
This year’s Epsom Derby tips must remember one thing. There could be even more to come from the three-year-olds who may have just had one or two outings before the big race. Every horse wants to be at peak performance on Derby day itself. Winning en route to Epsom doesn’t do their chances any harm, though.
Betfred Derby Tips – The Leading Contenders
Most 2024 Epsom Derby tips surround one or other of the leading contenders, so it’s worth looking at their profiles in more details. Here are the first four in the ante post betting now that all major Classic trials have taken place:
City Of Troy
- Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
- Owners: Mrs J Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith
- Sire: Justify
- Dam: Together Forever
- Damsire: Galileo
- Official BHA Rating: 124
- Form: 111-9
- Notable Wins: Dewhurst Stakes
- Latest Derby Odds: 7/2 (from 2/1)
One of last year’s outstanding juveniles following Superlative Stakes and Dewhurst victories, City Of Troy has the pedigree to be even better over a longer distance. Hailing from a yard with a record nine Epsom Derby winners, with four of those in the last seven years, the market keeps blind faith in Ballydoyle. City Of Troy is an uneasy favourite in midweek.
A ninth place finish in the 2000 Guineas on reappearance isn’t quite so bad as what happened with Auguste Rodin 12 months ago. He finished 12th on the Rowley Mile for the same connections. There have their excuses for City Of Troy. He certainly hasn’t become a bad horse overnight and is perhaps better judged on his unbeaten two-year-old form.
As a result, lots of Epsom Derby tips will make the case that City Of Troy didn’t give his true running the last day. We can therefore expect better from him now going up in half-a-mile distance with longer trips ideal based on his breeding.
Los Angeles
- Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
- Owners: Westerberg, Mrs J Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith
- Sire: Camelot
- Dam: Frequential
- Damsire: Dansili
- Official BHA Rating: 111
- Form: 11-1
- Notable Wins: Criterium de Saint-Cloud, Irish Derby Trial
- Latest Derby Odds: 9/2 (from 7/1)
The apparent Ballydoyle second string, Los Angeles, hasn’t done anything wrong. He’s unbeaten in three career starts and already has a Group 1 win on his CV. Los Angeles travelled to France just fine in the autumn and handled better ground in the official Irish Derby Trial on reappearance.
He was a length on top at the finish, leading home a 1-2 for the stable. Unlike previous years, however, there is sense that the two key Epsom trials run at Leopardstown this term don’t amount to much form wise. All Los Angeles can do is prove that feeling wrong.
With Ryan Moore likely to stick with City Of Troy, any other Ballydoyle inmates going to Epsom will probably drift in the market. It could thus pay to wait with Los Angeles, rather than taking any Derby tips putting him forward ante post, if casual punters side with the yard’s main chance on the day.
Ancient Wisdom
- Trainer: Charlie Appleby
- Owners: Godolphin
- Sire: Dubawi
- Dam: Golden Valentine
- Damsire: Dalakhani
- Official BHA Rating: 115
- Form: 11311-2
- Notable Wins: Kameko Futurity Trophy
- Latest Derby Odds: 5/1 (from 16/1)
Charlie Appleby has won The Derby twice in the last six years. That gives Godolphin’s retained trainer a strong recent record in the premier Classic thanks to victories for Masar (2018) and Adayar (2021). From a plethora of initial early closing entries, the boys in blue rely solely on Ancient Wisdom and that’s a major vote of confidence in him.
A lot of that is down to pure bad luck, however. Appleby and Godolphin have won two recognised Epsom Derby trials with the injured Arabian Crown (Sandown Classic Trial) and ill-fated Hidden Law (Chester Vase). Ancient Wisdom won the juvenile Group 1 at Doncaster races towards the end of last season.
Although he was won on all types of going as a two-year-old, it appears as though he is better with cut in the ground. Ancient Wisdom perhaps didn’t have the best luck in-running when second in the Dante Stakes at York races on reappearance. He may well come on for that return to action, though, and looks sure to feature prominently among the tips for the Epsom Derby with experts after a major ante post gamble saw his odds tumble.
Ambiente Friendly
- Trainer: James Fanshawe
- Owners: Gredley Family
- Sire: Gleneagles
- Dam: Roxity
- Damsire: Fastnet Rock
- Official BHA Rating: 111
- Form: 13-41
- Notable Wins: Lingfield Derby Trial
- Latest Derby Odds: 13/2 (from 5/1)
Catapulting himself into The Derby picture with a nice success at Lingfield races was Ambiente Friendly. James Fanshawe doesn’t go tilting at windmills, but Epsom is the obvious place to go with this colt who has clearly improved for his reappearance and juvenile runs.
The big question with Ambiente Friendly is will he stay on an even more undulating track? Well, he wasn’t stopping at Lingfield until eased close home. One thing to note here is that Callum Shepherd has lost the ride in favour of more experienced jockey Rab Havlin, whose own yard doesn’t have a credible Derby horse this time around.
There is something for Ambiente Friendly to find with Ancient Wisdom on two-year-old form if the pair meet again. Nonetheless, there are lots of Epsom Derby tips saying this horse is the one to be on come Saturday, 1 June.
Dancing Gemini
- Trainer: Roger Teal
- Owners: Fishdance Ltd
- Sire: Camelot
- Dam: Lady Adelaide
- Damsire: Australia
- Official BHA Rating: 113
- Form: 25115-2
- Notable Wins: Flying Scotsman Stakes
- Latest Derby Odds: 11/1 (from 16/1)
French 2000 Guineas runner-up Dancing Gemini is another Epsom hopeful bred to be much better over middle-distances. Anything achieved as a juvenile was a bonus and he landed a Listed event at Doncaster during the St Leger Festival, before returning there for the Kameko Futurity Trophy.
Genuine heavy ground perhaps didn’t suit Dancing Gemini, and there’s obviously something to find with Ancient Wisdom on that Town Moor form. Now stepping up in trip for popular trainer Roger Teal, he’s one of the lively outsiders given among Epsom Derby tips in what may in truth be a below par edition.
Macduff
- Trainer: Ralph Beckett
- Owner: Juddmonte
- Sire: Sea The Stars
- Dam: Present Tense
- Damsire: Bated Breath
- Official BHA Rating: 107
- Form: 124-2
- Notable Wins: None
- Latest Derby Odds: 14/1 (from 16/1)
It’s now 14 years since the famous Juddmonte silks of the late Prince Khalid Abdullah were on The Derby winner. Ralph Beckett went close with Westover, who came third in 2022, and tries again with Macduff this year. He represents the best of the Classic Trial form from Sandown races with the winner, Arabian Crown, sidelined through injury.
Macduff kept on into second nicely up the Esher hill and looks as though further will suit. His sire, Sea The Stars, is definitely one of the modern greats to have won at Epsom. The pick of Macduff’s juvenile form includes two-length fourth to Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket.
He kept on nicely there, adding further weight to Epsom Derby tips that say he’s another each way punt to to consider. Beckett is better known for his exploits in The Oaks, but will surely play this iron in the premier Classic as well as being mob-handed with his fillies.
Bellum Justum
- Trainer: Andrew Balding
- Owners: King Power Racing
- Sire: Sea The Stars
- Dam: Natural Beauty
- Damsire: Oasis Dream
- Official BHA Rating: 104
- Form: 5241-1
- Notable Wins: Blue Riband Trial
- Latest Derby Odds: 22/1 (from 33/1)
From a yard that all of the top horse racing betting sites know has a good recent record of having horses placed in The Derby, Bellum Justum punched his ticket by winning the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom in the spring. That was a big step forward from his juvenile form. Some of that isn’t particularly strong.
In a year where the premier Classic lacks any real depth, however, a course winner can’t be dismissed. Those providing Epsom Derby tips should also understand how last season’s two-year-olds haven’t done that well this term. Bellum Justum definitely has an outside shout.
Epsom Derby Day Tips
Now that you’ve seen some of the Epsom Derby 2024 tips, it’s also worth remembering there is more than one race on the card. We’re not saying that The Derby isn’t the main event but there are other opportunities to have a bet as well.
While you consider the Epsom Derby tips put forward here, think about the rest of the action as well. The Derby is a two-day festival with another Classic headlining the Friday card too. That is the Epsom Oaks with horse racing betting tips available on that feature race for fillies too.
Take the Epsom Dash, a Heritage Handicap sprint, for example. While The Derby betting tips demand a horse with stamina and speed, winning this 5f contest that is over inside a minute is all about pace. There is also the fact that the Epsom Dash isn’t off level weights like The Derby to consider as well.
Epsom Derby day tips also look at two Group 3 races over an extended mile in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes for fillies and mares and the Diomed Stakes. The latter race honours the memory of the first-ever Derby winner of the same name from way back in 1780. There are also other handicaps at Epsom races today to bet on, so look out for tips on those.
Top Tips for The Epsom Derby
Before we’re through here, we also wanted to pass on some general Epsom Derby tips to you. These come with no guarantees of course, but following the advice we asked our experts for can at least help you reach better decisions when betting on the big race. Follow these pointers when looking for a horse to bet on in The Derby:
Follow the Trials
By keeping a close eye on recognised Derby trials, you can see how the betting develops. Classic contenders come to the fore and fall by the wayside as each prep race for Epsom comes throughout the spring. All tips for The Derby that you encounter will be based on experts doing the same thing, assessing the action.
You may spot a horse running an eye-catching race in defeat to take forward to Epsom, especially if they are staying on strongly at the finish over 1m 2f. Remember, it is not all about the bare result of the trials. All good Epsom Derby tips will tell you that.
Check Horses’ Pedigrees
Breeding is an underrated aspect of helping to find you winners. If a horse is to be successful in The Derby, then it needs stamina, speed and a touch of class. Potential clues to all of this can be found in the pedigree. Looking at what the sire and dam, that’s the father and mother in layman’s terms, did on the track may provide answers.
When giving horse racing tips for betting on the Epsom Derby, the experts all consider breeding carefully. They won’t put forward a horse with dubious stamina or something by a sire that disappointed in The Derby. With a bit of research, you can discover which of this year’s blueblood thoroughbreds may be best suited by this unique test.
Consider Potential Improvers
There is often so little form to actually go on, compared to National Hunt horses anyway, that Epsom Derby betting tips are often based on potential progress. Racehorses improve at different rates and times, so there’s no exact science here. It is worth remembering that most will strip fitter for a prep run.
Horses seldom go to The Derby unraced in the spring. They have to be at their best to win a race at this elite level. Progress is everything and that suits stables that have target trainers. The Epsom Derby tips you read will often assume improvement in a horse from its two-year-old days or from race to race.
Look at Temperament
Epsom Downs and Derby day is both a big day out and tough track for young horses to handle. The course is an undulating one with twists and turns. It doesn’t suit every horse, nor does this major sporting occasion. Some blow their chances by acting up in the preliminaries, being keen on their way to post or in the early stages of the race.
You can’t know how horses will behave beforehand, but any previous win at Epsom is a plus when considering The Derby tips offered. Avoid any horses with a history of misbehaving in the stalls or pulling too hard. As much equine energy as possible should be conserved for the business end of the race.
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Jamie Clark Senior Sports Editor
Jamie Clark Senior Sports Editor
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