Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Ffos Las, Newmarket and Newcastle for his three stats-based picks on Tuesday, April 16th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
FFOS LAS 3.05
PILGRIMS KING (system – Sean Bowen, chases at Ffos Las)
Sean Bowen has a fine record when riding over fences at Ffos Las, scoring on 39 of his 144 such mounts (27.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £56.74 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 26.08, A/E = 1.50). Course winner PILGRIMS KING tends to come good in the spring and can provide young Bowen with yet another winner.
NEWMARKET 4.05
PRIMO LARA (system – New Bay, top three finish last time out)
Progeny of the sire New Bay have a good record on the back of a top-three finish, landing 137 of their 509 starts (26.9%) for a profit of £135.37 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 104.28, A/E = 1.31). PRIMO LARA was turned over at very short odds when runner-up at Leicester on his final start last term but looks the type to do better at three and could reach the frame at a big price (20-1 at the time of writing).
NEWCASTLE 7.00
RADIANT BEAUTY (system – Karl Burke, 3yos on the AW, second career start)
Karl Burke does well on the all-weather with three-year olds having their second career outing, scoring with 19 of the 77 qualifiers since the beginning of 2010 for a profit of £108.78 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.85, A/E = 1.60). RADIANT BEAUTY showed plenty of ability on her debut when a best-of-the-closers third at Chelmsford and looks sure to improve for that experience.
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