2023 Champion Hurdle Trends: Does Constitution Hill Tick All The Cheltenham Stats?

Are there any 2023 Champion Hurdle trends to take on the hot favourite Constitution Hill with? We take a look at the stats for and against the biggest 2023 Cheltenham Festival banker at the meeting.

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2023 Champion Hurdle Trends | Our Main Six Cheltenham Stats

• 33 of the last 39 won last time out
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 20 of the last 24 runnings between them
• 27 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (11 of last 16)
• The last 8 winners were unbeaten that season
• 7 of the last 14 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• 25 of the last 38 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival

How Do the Main Champion Hurdle Runners Fare With Our 6 Key Trends?

CONSTITUTION HILL: ✅✅✅✅✅✅       

STATE MAN: ✅✅✅✅❌✅       

VAUBAN: ❌ ❌❌❌❌✅                                  

Constitution Hill Ticks ALL Of the Main Champion Hurdle Trends

He’s 5-from-5 and being dubbed ‘A Monster’ – but are there any Champion Hurdle trends to suggest Constitution Hill can’t win?

The short answer is – NO!

As you can see from our main Champion Hurdle trends above, the Nicky Henderson-trained hurdler ticks them ALL – having won last time out, coming from the 8-time winning Seven Barrows yard and also being aged 6 years-old.

He bolted up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival and since then has been the market leader for the 2023 Champion Hurdle – Constitution Hill will be looking to become the first horse since Bula (1971) to do the Supreme/Champion double in consecutive seasons.

Constitution Hill returned this season to win the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton over the Festive period – a race 50% of the last 14 Champion Hurdle winners contested. While another good trial for the Champion Hurdle is the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle 26th Nov), with five winners in the last 15 runnings – and, you guessed it – this was another prize Constitution Hill has won this season.

He’ll also be looking break a 52 year-old Cheltenham record – the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner to follow up the next season in the Champion Hurdle was Bula in 1971!

Overall, the betting suggests Constitution Hill will also be powering up another ‘hill’ – Cheltenham one – and after looking at the Champion Hurdle trends there are no reasons to think this won’t happen.

Back CONSTITUTION HILL @ 1/3 with BetUK

DID YOU KNOW? 2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends On Day One: Key Cheltenham Stats To Find The Tuesday Winners

The Champion Hurdle Trends Suggest State Man Is a Worthy Challenger

The Willie Mullins-trained State Man will be the biggest threat to Constitution Hill and based on the Champion Hurdle trends this 6 year-old has a squeak of upsetting the odds.

Like, the red-hot favourite, he also ticks most of our stats, with having not run in the Christmas Hurdle the only small negative. However, he’s also ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle – a race he won last time out at Leopardstown – and that was also a contest the winner of this race (Honeysuckle) won.

The Willie Mullins yard are also no strangers to winning this day one Cheltenham Festival feature – with four wins over the years.

State Man has won his last six races too, one of which was the County Hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago, and having trounced the current Champion Hurdle champ, Honeysuckle by 4 3/4 lengths, then his challenge must be taken seriously.

Let’s just hope he’s able to keep tabs on Constitution Hill and is upsides jumping the last – then, may the best horse win!

Back STATE MAN @ 3/1 with BetUK

Champion Hurdle Trends – The Pluses

• 33 of the last 39 won last time out
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (10 of last 12)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 20 of the last 24 runnings between them
• 9 of the last 14 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 24 runnings
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
• 27 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (11 of last 16)
• 14 of the last 24 winners had won at the Festival before
• 25 of the last 38 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle, 26th Nov 22)is a good guide (5 winners, 5 places in last 15 runnings)
• 14 of the last 27 winners started as flat horses
• The last 8 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 6 years
• 7 of the last 14 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)

Champion Hurdle Trends – The Negatives

• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 111 runners since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 40 runnings)
• Just 2 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26^th Dec) winners are just 4 from 32, but – Epatante 2020) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double and 50% of the last 14 Champion Hurdle winners ran in that Kempton race.
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• Only 2 of the last 24 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before

RELATED: 2023 Cheltenham Festival Bankers | Best Backed Horses For Your Festival Accas

Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle Winners

• • • 2022 – HONEYSUCKLE (8/11 fav)
    • 2021 – HONEYSUCKLE (11/10 fav)
    • 2020 – EPATANTE (2/1 fav)
    • 2019 – ESPOIR D’ALLEN (16/1)
    • 2018 – BUVEUR D’AIR (4/6 fav)
    • 2017 – BUVEUR D’AIR (5/1)
    • 2016 – ANNIE POWER (5/2 fav)
    • 2015 – FAUGHEEN (4/5 fav)
    • 2014 – JEZKI (9/1)
    • 2013 – HURRICANE FLY (13/8 fav)

WATCH: Honeysuckle winning the 2022 Champion Hurdle

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