Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads Kempton, today’s only meeting, for his two stats-based picks on Wednesday, January 3rd. Our stats guru is taking a short break and his next column will be on Saturday, January 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
KEMPTON 6.00
GOLDKIT (system – Paul & Oliver Cole, first-time blinkers)
Backing runners from the Cole yard in first-time blinkers is a profitable angle, with 17 winners from 88 bets for a profit of £66.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. GOLDKIT caught the eye when a 20-1 eighth of 13 over 1m here last time, doing third best of the closers when it paid to race on the front end. That was also the four-year-olds first run since April and first since a wind operation, and she looks sure to improve for it.
KEMPTON 7.00
IPPOTHEOS (system – Cotai Glory, geldings on the all-weather)
Gelded progeny of the sire Cotai Glory are 37 from 227 (16.3%) on the all-weather for a profit of £113.28 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 28.03, A/E = 1.32). IPPOTHEOS contributed when arriving late to score at odds of 11-4 over 6f at Wolverhampton last month on his debut for Mick Appleby and can be excused his subsequent fourth place over 7f at the same venue. It was a huge advantage to race up with the early pace that day (the first three were described by the Racing Post as ‘in touch with leaders’, ‘raced in second, led over 1f out’ and ‘lead, headed over 1f out’) whereas he was ‘towards rear’ before staying on late. The return to sprinting will suit and the switch to Polytrack is unlikely to be a problem on breeding.
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Related
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