Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found well-backed Dundalk winner KAMPALA BEACH (3-1) on Wednesday and has three more stats-based picks on Thursday, November 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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MARKET RASEN 2.30
WILLASTON (system – Mark Walford, hurdles to chases switch)
In-form Mark Walford has a 14 from 51 record when switching a horse from hurdles to fences and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £23.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. WILLASTON disappointed in a 3m handicap hurdle at Aintree last time but won over 2m4f at Hexham the time before and he could benefit from the cut back in trip on his chase debut.
MARKET RASEN 3.05
ROMEO BROWN (system – Yeats/Kahyasi cross, hurdles)
Progeny of Yeats do well over hurdles and those crossed with Kayhasi are ten from 46 since the beginning of 2016 for a profit of £33.75. ROMEO BROWN’s trainer Sue Smith has been typically slow to get going this term but very recent signs have been more encouraging and the eight-year-old can be forgiven Last month’s Carlisle eclipse where he did too much too soon. He has performed with credit in both course outings, finishing second by a short head and fourth at 12-1.
CHELMSFORD 6.30
SOLDIER’S MINUTE (system – Keith Dalgleish, fresh horses on the AW, fifth or worse last time out)
Keith Dalgleish has a good record with fresh horses on the all-weather and, since 2010, had we backed all those who were returning from a break of at last eight weeks we’d have found 34 winners from 249 bets (13.7%) for a profit of £73.25. Those who finished out of the frame (fifth or worse) on their latest outing were 24 from 164 (14.6%) for a profit of £94.88. SOLDIER’S MINUTE has only qualified once on this angle previously – when scoring at odds of 5-1 at Kempton in March 2019 – and looks worth a punt on his first start since April.
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Related
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