Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found winners GRIVETANA and THOR’S HAMMER on Tuesday and has four stats-based picks on Wednesday, May 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
FFOS LAS 4.00
BATAILLON (system – Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, Ffos Las handicaps)
The Johnson & White yard has a solid record in handicaps at Ffos Las (Flat and jumps), scoring with 13 of the 50 qualifiers since the beginning of 2016 for a profit of £19.83 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 6.62, A/E = 1.96). The presence of David Maxwell in the saddle will dissuade many punters from backing BATAILLON in this 3m handicap hurdle but the step up in trip will suit and he rates a reasonable place only or each-way play.
YORK 4.45
AMERICAN STYLE (system – Kevin Ryan, Washington DC)
I’ve written previously about trainer Kevin Ryan’s good record with progeny of the sire Lope De Vega and he’s exhibiting a similar pattern with Washington DC. To date, Ryan has a nine from 44 record with the sire’s progeny for a profit of £67.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.78, A/E = 1.88). He’s saddled seven individual horses with five winning, four of them at least twice. AMERICAN STYLE, a £22,000 purchase and one of three qualifiers at York today, could be worth chancing at a big price on his debut.
BATH 5.35
KARL CARLSTON (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a fine record with newcomers, regardless of age and who trains them. They’ve struck with 43 of the 200 qualifiers for a profit of £32.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 34.17, A/E = 1.26). Mehmas progeny tend to be precocious and Breeze-up buy KARL CARLSTON should know his job ahead of his racecourse debut.
BATH 8.40
PRIDE OF NEPAL (system – The Gurkha, 1m1f-1m2f)
Progeny of The Gurkha have a preference for a trip of 1m1f-1m2f, landing 34 of their 218 such starts (15.6%) for a huge profit of £190.23 (expected winners = 24.46, A/E = 1.39). PRIDE OF NEPAL struggled to see out the 2m trip over hurdles last time and will appreciate returning to 1m2f on the Flat.
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