Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to York (day two of the Dante Festival), Perth, Fontwell and Lingfield for his four stats-based picks on Thursday, May 16th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
PERTH 1.50
MEDIEVAL GOLD (system – Emma Smith-Chaston riding for Micky Hammond)
Emma Smith-Chaston has a 50 from 346 record (14.5% strike-rate) when riding for Mciky Hammond and backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a small profit of £11.10 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 35.79, A/E = 1.40). MEDIEVAL GOLD, ex-William Haggas, finished a good second at Market Rasen on his stable debut and can go one better in this maiden hurdle.
YORK 4.45
TARLAC (system – Kevin Ryan, 2yo debutants York, May)
In-form Kevin Ryan does well with his juvenile debutants at York in the month of May, scoring with six of the 36 qualifiers in the past 20 years for a profit of £6.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. The colts/geldings were six from 25 (+£17.13) prior to Wednesday’s racing and TARLAC, one of two qualifiers in this novice contest (the other is JORGE ALVARES) can make a winning start to his career.
FONTWELL 5.40
NORTON HILL (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+, jumps)
Progeny of Fame And Glory tend to improve with time and backing the sire’s older progeny (8yo+) would have found 87 winners from 699 bets (12.5%) for a profit of £96.59. Eight-year-old NORTON HILL finished a creditable fourth at Plumpton last month on his first run since December and should be fitter this time.
LINGFIELD 5.52
VEER (system – Charlie Fellowes, second run since gelded)
Charlie Fellowes has a 16 from 71 record (22.5% strike-rate) with runners who were having their second start after a gelding operation and backing them blind would have returned a lovely profit of £99.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.21, A/E = 1.43). Handicap debutant VEER ran with credit under a 7lb claimer when a 28-1 seventh at Kempton last month on his debut for the yard (ex-Charlie Hills) and can do the business under Harry Davies.
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