Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newbury, Haydock, Wolverhampton and Taunton for his four stats-based picks on Saturday, December 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
MARTATOR (system – Venetia Williams. Handicap chasers in December)
Since the beginning of the current century, Venetia Williams is 147 from 710 (20.7%) with her handicap chasers in the month of December for a profit of £89.22 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 114.43, A/E = 1.28). MARTATOR is 0-7 in Britain, but it was no shame to finish second to the progressive Dan Skelton-trained Etalon over course and distance last time and he can go one better.
HAYDOCK 1.25
FORTESCUE (system – small-field preference)
FORETESCUE struggles to handle traffic but has a solid record in chases of 11 or fewer runners, recording form figures of 121121132314 (6-12) for a profit of £32.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. In fields of nine or less his figures improve to 1211211321 (6-10). Henry Daly’s nine-year-old finished a creditable fourth to Nassalam in the Welsh Grand National Trial at Chepstow on his reappearance, faces just five rivals and will relish today’s heavy going.
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.40
VERONA STAR (system – Tony Carroll, second-time stable switchers on the AW, Class 6, recent run)
Tony Carroll has a solid record at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially with those running in Class 6 company on the all-weather after a recent outing (within the past six weeks). In the past ten years, he’s won with 13 of the 68 qualifiers (19.1%) for a profit of £40.82. Those drawn in stall 6 or lower were 12 from 41 (+£63.22). VERONA STAR, a respectable 40-1 seventh of 11 over a slightly longer trip on his stable debut 11 days ago, looks well berthed in stall 2 and can return to winning ways.
TAUNTON 3.55
FLEURMAN (system – Olly Murphy hurdlers, first-time tongue-tie)
Olly Murphy has a good record when using a tongue-tie for the first time on his hurdlers, scoring with 23 of the 96 qualifiers for a profit of £8.48 to a £1 level stake at SP, including 2-2 at Taunton. FLEURMAN drops back down to Class 4 level for the first time since scoring at Newcastle in February and looks the best each-way alternative to solid favourite Individualiste.
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