Use our 2000 Guineas trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. For example, 81% of the last 21 winners came from stalls 12 or lower and won last time out. Does the hot favourite Auguste Rodin fit the bill?
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2000 Guineas Trends to Help You Find the Newmarket Winner
It’s the first English Classic of the new flat horse racing season today as the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket is one of the big weekend highlights, along with the 1,000 Guineas, run the following day.
The 2000 Guineas is a race the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard have dominated over the years – winning the prize 10 times since 1998 and have another strong hand with the likely 2000 Guineas favourite Auguste Rodin and possible second in the betting Little Big Bear.
Frankie Dettori will also be riding in his last ever 2000 Guineas as the pocket Italian has announced his retirement from the saddle at the end of this season. He’ll be hoping to go out with a bang with the Andrew Balding-trained Chaldean and give Frankie his fourth 2000 Guineas success.
You can see below our key 2000 Guineas trends to help you find Saturday’s big Newmarket winner.
What Date & Time Is The 2023 2000 Guineas?
📅Time/Date: 4:40pm (Saturday 6th May 2023)
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket
💰 Purse/Winner: £283,550
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
ALL Of the Last 21 Winners Finished In The Top Three Last Time Out
First up is to look for horses that are coming into the race off the back of a ‘top three‘ run last time out. Yes, most will fit the bill here, but having unseated in the Greenham Stakes last time out, Chaldean does fall down here. But you might want to take that trend with a pinch of salt as it was a freak accident at the start of the race and it would have been a big shock if Chaldean, who was the 5/4 fav that day, wouldn’t have finished in the top three.
81% Of Those Last 21 2000 Guineas Winners Won Their Last Race
We can start to put a line through some of the runners by taking this ‘recent runs’ trend a bit further. 17 of the last 21 winners of the 2000 Guineas won their last race.
This is a plus for the big favourite Auguste Rodin, who was last seen winning the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes last October at Doncaster.
Of the fancied runners that didn’t win their most recent race – Chaldean, Royal Scotsman and Silver Knott have this to overcome.
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Look For 2000 Guineas Runners Drawn 12 Or Lower
The 2000 Guineas draw has played a big part in finding the winner over the years too. 17 of the last 21 winners came from stalls 12 or lower, while you can take this stat further too.
Horses Drawn 6 or Lower Have a Good Record
Yes, horses drawn 6 or lower have won 8 of the last 13 running of the 2000 Guineas, so when we know the gate numbers (Thurs, 4th May), this will provide us with more clues.
Are Stalls 1 and 3 the Magic Numbers?
The final thing to note when it comes to the 2000 Guineas draw is that horses from stalls 1 and 3 seem to have built up a record to respect. 8 of the last 21 2000 Guineas winners hailed from stalls 1 or 3, which is a 38% strike-rate.
This has been backed up in recent years with Coroebus (1), Churchill (3), Galileo Gold (1) and Night Of Thunder (3) all ticking this stat since 2016.
15 of the Last 21 Winners Were Having Their First Run of The New Season
Last year’s 2000 Guineas winner, Coroebus was winning the Newmarket Classic on his first run back from a break (203-days) and this seems to be the norm, with 71% of the last 21 winners NOT needing a prep run before winning the race.
Again, most will be fine here, including Auguste Rodin, who has not been out for 196-days, but it would be a small negative for Chaldean and the recent Craven Stakes winner Indestrucible.
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Respect Horses That Have Won Just 2 or 3 Times Before
Next up is to look for horses that have won only twice or three times. This suggests that we are looking for runners that know how to win, but still have enough improvement in them to kick-on again and win this top Group 1 contest.
Auguste Rodin is again okay here – having won just 3 times, but if they run with 4 wins each – Little Big Bear and Chaldean would have this as a negative.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien Is The 2000 Guineas Man
No horse racing trainer has won the 2000 Guineas more times than Aidan O’Brien and considering this Newmarket Classic was first run in 1809, this is an amazing record.
Of course, O’Brien is still training today, and he’s mopped up four of those 10 wins since 2015. His most recent 2000 Guineas winner being Magna Grecia in 2019, so he’s actually on a three-year drought – which is quite low for the Ballydoyle maestro.
The bookies feel that O’Brien is a strong favourite to land his 11th 2000 Guineas too as he’s got the big favourite Auguste Rodin. While he could also have Little Big Bear and Cairo.
12 months ago, the Charlie Appleby yard broke their 2000 Guineas duck with Coroebus, while Andrew Balding took the honours in 2020. Both have decent chances again this year with Noble Style, Silver Knott and Chaldean.
How Have the 2000 Guineas Stakes Favourites Fared?
The average winning SP over the last 21 years for the 2000 Guineas winner is 10/1, while we’ve seen 6 winning favourites (29%).
13 of the last 21 market leaders were also placed (62%), but the race is currently on a run of five with no winning favourite. The last jolly to win the race was Churchill in 2017.
2000 Guineas Trends: The Last 21 Runnings
See below our in-depth 2000 Guineas trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these 2023 Newmarket stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 21/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 19/21 – Had won over at least 7f before
- 19/21 – Had won a Group race before
- 19/21 – Had won between 2-5 times before
- 17/21 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
- 17/21 – Won last time out
- 16/21 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
- 15/21 – Having their first run of the season
- 14/21 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
- 13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 13/21 – Placed favourites
- 12/21 – Won by an Irish-based yard
- 12/21 – Irish bred
- 9/21 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
- 9/21 – Had won over a mile before
- 8/21 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
- 6/21 – Winning favourites
- 6/21 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
- 4/21 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
- 3/21 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
- 8 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
- The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 10/1
Other 2,000 Guineas Facts
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016
2000 Guineas Recent Winners
- 2022 – Coroebus (5/1)
- 2021 – Poetic Flare (16/1)
- 2020 – Kameko (10/1)
- 2019 – Magna Grecia (11/2)
- 2018 – Saxon Warrior (3/1)
- 2017 – Churchill (6/4 fav)
- 2016 – Galileo Gold (14/1)
- 2015 – Gleneagles (4/1 fav)
- 2014 – Night Of Thunder (40/1)
- 2013 – Dawn Approach (11/8 fav)
2000 Guineas Betting Odds
See below the latest 2023 2000 Guineas betting odds with StarSports that you can use at the best horse racing betting sites.
- Auguste Rodin @ 13/8
- Little Big Bear @ 9/2
- Chaldean @ 5/1
- Sakheer @ 6/1
- Royal Scotsman @ 8/1
- Noble Style @ 12/1
- Silver Knott @ 12/1
- Indestructible @ 16/1
- 25/1 Bar
Note: Others on request and odds are subject to change.
WATCH: Coroebus Winning the 2022 2000 Guineas at Newmarket
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