Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newmarket, Thirsk, Newbury and Bangor for his five stats-based picks on Saturday, May 18th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWMARKET 1.30
NEW CHARTER (system – New Bay, 2yos on turf)
Simply backing all progeny of the sire New Bay on turf would have found 49 winners from 279 bets (17.8% strike-rate) for a loss of £11.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. That loss would have been turned into a profit of £112.93 by taking an early price, as several of the winners were well punted. Richard Hannon has had two winners form ten bets on this angle (+£9.00) and his NEW CHARTER could be worth chancing at a nice price.
THIRSK 2.00
SANDS OF DUBAI (system – Cool Silk Partnership, 2yo debut)
Two-year-olds owned by the Cool Silk Partnership tend to be ready to go on their debuts and, since the beginning of 2010, backing all the qualifiers would have found 15 winners from 74 bets (20.3%) for profit of £74.88. Latest qualifier Sands Of Havana ran third at 25-1 at Windsor the other day and Richard Fahey’s SANDS OF DUBAI can also run a big race.
NEWBURY 2.25
JAMES’S DELIGHT (system – Carnarvon Stakes, prepped in Class 2 company)
This 6f Listed contest often goes to a runner who prepped in a Class 2 race, with seven of the 21 qualifiers successful since the 2012 renewal for a profit of £29.70. This angle has helped to identify the last six winners and last year’s victor Shaquille was the only qualifier. JAMES’S DELIGHT, two from two at today’s 6f trip, is this year’s sole qualifier.
BANGOR 5.05
SEA GREY (system – Donald McCain, Bangor handicap hurdles, recent run)
Donald McCain has a cracking record in handicap hurdles, especially with runners who had raced within the past four weeks. Since the beginning of 2011 he’s won with 47 of the 146 qualifiers (32.2%) for a profit of £145.16 (expected winners = 24.28, A/E = 1.94). SEA GREY ran respectably on the all-weather last month and looks interesting on his handicap debut.
THIRSK 6.02
PROSPECT (System – Paul Midgley, first-time visor, Class 6 races)
Since the beginning of 2008, Paul Midgley has a six from 28 record with first-time visored runners in Class 6 company for a profit of £68.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Backing only the colts and geldings would have found five winners from 18 bets (+£72.50) and PROSPECT, a close-up third at Redcar last time, could benefit from the headgear.
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