Here lies the mass grave of beaten Royal Ascot favourites with bookies dancing on it all the way to bank. That’s the epitaph and narrative doing the rounds after a bruising 2023 edition of the premier Flat horse racing gala in the British Isles for punters.
Best Horse Racing Offers for Royal Ascot
Just Above Average Number of Royal Ascot Favourites Turned Over
The result of the Royal meeting’s traditional curtain-raiser, the Queen Anne Stakes, rather set the tone for this year. A 33/1 outsider prevailing, belying all known form, and the favourite finishing out of the frame. Sound familiar? The SP of 16 winners this year were double-figure prices, including 10 at 20/1 and bigger odds.
With Royal Ascot favourites getting turned over left, right and centre, punters just weren’t going to find 50/1 chance Witch Hunter (Buckingham Palace Stakes), 80/1 shot Khaadem (Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes) and 150/1 rank outsider Valiant Force (Norfolk Stakes). Anyone who claims they did is probably lying.
Royal Ascot expanded to 35 races in 2020 as a response to the coronavirus pandemic shutting down British horse racing in the spring. Meant as a one-off, just like going to five days in 2002, it stuck. While it’s not the largest sample size to draw conclusions from, there are still takeaways from statisticians and data experts for.
In 2022, 14 Royal Ascot favourites or joint-favourites obliged for punters. The two years prior to that, it was nine market leaders apiece who delivered on the track. That creates a mean average of 10, and a median and mode of nine. Eight horses that headed the betting obliged this year. Whichever way you slice it, that’s just below average and last year well above.
If ever there was an advert for laying the market principals, then this edition of the Royal meeting was it. Taking the favourite on through betting exchanges by wagering on it not winning would certainly have garnered profits in 28 races no less.
Shortest-Priced Beaten Royal Ascot Favourites in 2023
- Al Asifah 5/6 (Ribblesdale Stakes)
- Little Big Bear 10/11 (Commonwealth Cup)
- Free Wind 6/4 (Hardwicke Stakes)
- Chaldean 13/8 (St James’s Palace Stakes)
- Bring On The Night 13/8 (Ascot Stakes)
- Modern Games 7/4 (Queen Anne Stakes)
- Highfield Princess 7/4 (King’s Stand Stakes)
- Elite Status 7/4 (Norfolk Stakes)
- Pearls And Rubies 7/4 (Chesham Stakes)
No fewer than the nine above hot favourites returned under 2/1 didn’t run up to expectations. There are always individual excuses, but those aren’t just reserved for market leaders. For clock watchers, only two races dipped inside the Racing Post standard with fast times recorded in two 1m 4f contests, the King George V and Hardwicke Stakes.
From Wednesday onwards, however, there were a dozen events less than a second outside of standard. This coincides with good to firm appearing all over the turf and Royal Ascot results, regardless of whether it was the Straight or Round course. Winners by and large haven’t been scorching the track in sweltering heat, then, but going close to decent times.
Good to firm ground wouldn’t have necessarily suited all Royal Ascot favourites with conditions as quick as some may have encountered in their careers to date. Those seeking answers can’t always use time as an excuse either. Some races were more slowly run than others.
Horse racing is a sport when bookmakers, connections, punters and tipsters alike are learning all the time about the quine athletes taking part. This Royal meeting is one best chalked down as an experience that teaches us to looks beyond the favourite and consider outsiders more carefully.
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