Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew struck with sole surviving selection THOR DE CERISY on Sunday and has three stats-based picks on Monday, March 18th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CURRAGH 1.35
ARIZONA BLAZE (system – Amo Racing newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a fine record with newcomers, regardless of age and who trains them. They’ve scored with 40 of the 180 qualifiers (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £38.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those trained in Ireland had form figures of 214116521214 (5-12) for a profit of £26.00. Adrian Murray’s ARIZONA BLAZE can get the ball rolling for the new turf season in Ireland, though I’ll be saving on stablemate and fellow qualifier CHARANDA at a much bigger price.
CURRGAH 2.35
PROCRASTINATE (system – Paddy Twomey newcomers)
Paddy Twomey has a fine record with newcomers, scoring with 25 of the 106 qualifiers for a profit of £63.93 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s nine from 24 since the start of last year (+£14.88) and PROCRASTINATE can make a winning start to his career in this 7f maiden.
CURRAGH 3.40
PEACE OF MINE (system – Fast Company, soft or heavy going, Flat)
Progeny of Fast Company have a solid record on soft or heavy going on the Flat, landing 140 of their 1030 starts (13.6%) for a profit of £21.10 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 108.70, A/E =1.29). The profit at SP is not great but plenty of the winners were well backed and taking the best early price the night before racing turned the figure into +£494.07. PEACE OF MINE rarely had her conditions for George Boughey and was too keen over 1m2f when well beaten at Bath last time. She’s a huge price on her debut for the McCreery yard but could go well back at 1m.
NEWCASTLE 7.00
BESTIE (system – Newcastle 5f-7f handicaps, stall 1)
The stands’ rail is often the place to be on the straight course at Newcastle, favouring high draws, but we still get plenty of stall 1 winners who often tuck in early and get cover. They also tend to go off at value prices and since the spring of last year, simply backing all stall 1 runners in handicaps over 5f-7f would have found 22 winners from 196 runners for a profit of £82.21. Plenty also run well in defeat, including 66-1 third Lethal Nymph, tipped in this column last week. BESTIE will be a much shorter price but could still be worth an interest in this 6f handicap having run well over 7f here on his handicap debut last month.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
- View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
