Use our Craven Stakes trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. The last two winners of this Newmarket Group Three have gone onto run close seconds in the 2000 Guineas, while the 2018 winner landed the Epsom Derby.
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Craven Stakes Trends to Help You Find the Newmarket Winner
We’ve looked back at the key trends from the last 19 runnings of today’s feature Newmarket contest – the Group 3 Craven Stakes – on the final day of their Craven Meeting.
The William Buick-ridden Mysterious Night is the likely favourite for the 1m race, that is also a decent trial for the 2,000 Guineas. The last two winners have gone onto be close runners-up in the Guineas, but just the one winner in the last 19 runnings has also taken the Newmarket Classic – Haafhd in 2004.
It’s also worth noting, the 2018 Craven Stakes winner Masar went one better and won that year’s Epsom Derby.
What Date & Time Is The 2023 Craven Stakes?
📅Time/Date: 3:35pm (Thursday 20th April 2023)
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket
💰 Purse/Winner: £45,368
📺 TV: ITV4 / Racing TV
89% Of Craven Stakes Winners Were Having Their First Runs of The Season
17 of the last 19 Craven Stakes winners were having their first runs of the season. However, the bad news here is that of the 8 runners we can’t rule any out – they are all coming back from a break.
79% Of Recent Winners (last 19) Were Yet To Win Over 1m
The Craven Stakes is run over a trip of 1m, but don’t worry if your fancy is yet to taste success over this trip. In recent times, 15 of the last 19 winners hadn’t won over 1m in the past, which would be a plus for Indestructible, Ancestral Land, Dancing Magic and Mr Mistoffelees.
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Horses From the Three In Betting Have a Good Record
The market is often a good guide towards the winner of the Craven Stakes too. In the last 19 runnings the winner has come from the top three in the betting 15 times (79%).
This is backed up with the same number of winners returning 9/2 or shorter in the betting – this would be a big tick for the Craven Stakes favourite Mysterious Night, Mostabshir and The Foxes, who are all likely to be 9/2 or less in the betting.
Look For Horses That Have Won No More Than Twice
Being unexposed is another positive with 13 of the last 19 winners having only one or two previous wins to their name.
Most fit the bill here, but the one big horse that doesn’t is the favourite – Mysterious Night, who has already won three times.
Horses From Stall 5 Or Lower Have Won 92% Of the Last 19 Runnings
Another big Craven Stakes trend the market leader Mysterious Night will need to overcome is the draw. This is because this Godolphin runner has been handed stall 8 and a massive 11 of the last 12 winners (92%) have come from gate 5 or lower.
This would also be a negative for The Foxes (6) and Indestructible (7).
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Previous Track Experience at Newmarket a Plus
Having run at Newmarket in the past has been a help to finding the Craven Stakes winner too. In fact, 12 of the last 19 winners raced at HQ last time out, while 11 of those had run on the Rowley Mile before with 5 winning.
The Foxes is the only proven CD winner in the field, with Dancing Magic the only other horse to have raced on the Rowley Mile before.
Trainer Charlie Appleby Is Respected
The Charlie Appleby yard have a top record in the Craven Stakes – winning three of the last four. Therefore, his big hope Mysterious Night will have this big trend in his corner.
In contrast, and slightly surprising, is that the powerful John Gosden camp have only won the race once and that came way back in 1993 with a horse called Emperor Jones.
Gosden runs Mostabshir this year in a bid to try and break his run without a win.
How Have the Craven Stakes Favourites Fared?
The last two Craven Stakes favourites have been successful and in the last 10 runnings we’ve had four market leaders go in.
Over the last 19 runnings, the race has produced 8 winning jollies, which works out at a not too shabby 42% favourites strike-rate.
Mysterious Night will be the 2023 Craven Stakes favourite and looking to uphold this stat.
Craven Stakes Trends: The Last 19 Runnings
See below our in-depth Craven Stakes trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these Newmarket stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 17/19 – Having their first run of the season
- 16/19 – Rated 110 or higher
- 15/19 – Yet to win over a mile
- 15/19 – Came from the top three in the betting
- 15/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
- 14/19 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
- 14/19 – Had won over 7f before
- 13/19 – Had won no more than twice before
- 12/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
- 12/19 – Placed favourites
- 12/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
- 11/19 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (5 won)
- 8/19 – Winning favourites
- 7/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
- 6/19 – Won last time out
- 5/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (4 of the last 12)
- 3/19 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of the last 4)
- 2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 1/19 – Irish-trained winners
- 1/19 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
- Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
- 11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or less
- 4 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1
- Trainer John Gosden has only won the race once (1993)
- Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
- The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 4/1
Craven Stakes Recent Winners
- 2022 – NATIVE TRAIL (1/4 fav)
- 2021 – MASTER OF THE SEAS (11/4 fav)
- 2020 – No Race (Covid)
- 2019 – SKARDU (3/1)
- 2018 – MASAR (7/2)
- 2017 – EMINENT (8/1)
- 2016 – STORMY ANTARCTIC (9/2)
- 2015 – KOOL COMPANY (14/1)
- 2014 – TOORMORE (Evs fav)
- 2013 – TORONADO (8/11 fav)
Craven Stakes Betting Odds
See below the latest 2023 Craven Stakes betting odds with bet365 that you can use at the best horse racing betting sites.
- Mysterious Night @ 5/4
- Mostabshir @ 10/3
- The Foxes @ 7/2
- Indestructible @ 8/1
- Ancestral Land @ 14/1
- Dancing Magic @ 20/1
- Mr Mistoffelees @ 50/1
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WATCH: Native Trail winning the 2022 Craven Stakes at Newmarket
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