Use our 2023 Falmouth Stakes trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. The valuable Group One race has seen 95% of the last 21 winners aged 3 or 4, while 76% of those winners also came from stalls 5 or lower.
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Falmouth Stakes Trends to Help You Find The 2023 Winner
The first of two Group One races at this week’s Newmarket July Festival comes on Friday in the shape of the Falmouth Stakes – a race with £165k on offer to the winner.
12 months ago, we saw a shock win for the Ralph Beckett-trained Prosperous Voyage, who slammed the 1/7 favourite Inspiral, and is back to try and defend her crown. She’ll be looking to become the first ‘back-to-back’ Falmouth Stakes winner since Soviet Song (2004 and 2005).
However, it’s the George Boughey-trained Via Sistina that is likely to be sent off as favourite with the best UK horse racing bookmakers after facile wins in the Dahlia Stakes and the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last time out.
But does this in-form mare tick all the Falmouth Stakes stats?
To help find the winner – let’s look at the key 2023 Falmouth Stakes trends to look out for and hopefully by applying these to the final runners it will help point you in the direction of Friday’s big Newmarket Group One.
When Is The 2023 Falmouth Stakes?
📅Time/Date: Friday 14th July 2023
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket (July course), Suffolk (1m)
📺 TV: ITV/ Racing TV
💰 Winner: £165,347
🎲 Falmouth Stakes Odds: Via Sistina 2/1 | Nashwa 10/3 | Remarquee 7/2 | Coppice 6/1 | Prosperous Voyage 6/1
2023 Falmouth Stakes Trends
- 20/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 19/21 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
- 17/21 – Had 2+ runs that season
- 16/21– Won over at least 1 mile previously
- 16/21 – Won from stall 5 or lower
- 16/21 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
- 15/21 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
- 12/21 – Favourites placed
- 7/21 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
- 7/21 – Previous Group One winners
- 7/21 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
- 6/21 – Won their last race
- 3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 9)
- 2/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 7 runnings)
- 2/21 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 11 runnings)
- 2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (6 wins in total)
- 2/21 – Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 9 runnings)
- 2/21 – French-trained winners
- Since 1979 all bar 2 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 4 (4)
- Prosperous Voyage (16/1) won this race in 2022
RELATED: Newmarket Free Bets: Claim £250 July Festival Betting Offers For Horse Racing
Age Concern: 95% Of The Last 21 Winners Aged 3 or 4 Years-old
First up is the age as a massive 20 of the last 21 Falmouth Stakes winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old. The last 5 year-old to win the big Group One prize was Soviet Song in 2005, while since 1979 all bar two of the winners were aged 3 or 4 too.
This is, therefore, a huge Falmouth Stakes trend against the hot favourite Via Sistina, who heads into the race aged 5. Random Harvest is the other 5 year-old in the contest.
Trip: 16 Of The Last 21 Winners Had Won Over a Mile
Winning form over the Falmouth Stakes trip of a mile is another thing to look for. Most will fit the bill here, but it’s interesting that this is another negative for the likely market leader Via Sistina. Her 5 career wins have come over further – 1m1f, 1m2f and 1m 2 1/2f.
It would also be a negative for the lightly-raced Remarquee, who has only won over 7f to date.
Runs This Season: Having 2+ Outings This Term a Plus
Having at least two runs this season is next up as 81% of the last 21 Falmouth Stakes winners ticked this stat. Again, a lot of the runners will be fine here, but outsider Ameynah, who has not been on the track for 439-days, does fall down.
Price: 71% Of The Last 21 Winners Returned 13/2 Or Shorter
Last year we saw a shock 16/1 winner in Prosperous Voyage, but the Falmouth Stakes is a race that tends to go to those horses at the other end of the betting market. 15 of the last 21 winners returned 13/2 or shorter and this has also been backed up with 80% of the last 10 winners falling into this SP price range.
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Favourites: The Market Leader Has Won 33% Of Recent Renewals
The first positive trend for this year’s Falmouth Stakes big fancy Via Sistina is that this Newmarket race has been kind to favourite backers over the years. We’ve seen 7 of the last 21 market leaders win, with 57% placed too.
That said, the race is on a four-year run without a winning favourite – with Alpha Centauri in 2018 the last jolly to land the prize.
Draw: Horses From Stalls 5 or Lower Have Fared Best
Once the draw is out then this can often help too in finding the winner. 16 of the last 21 successful horses came from stalls 5 or lower, with 7 of the last 8 winners also hailing from berths 1-4 (inc).
Stalls 1 and 4 have been the magic numbers since 2013 – with three winners from stall 1 and four from stalls 4.
The draw will be announced on Wednesday 12th July.
Royal Ascot Form: A Run at The Royal Meeting Last Time a Plus
Looking back at a horses last run is worth doing too as 76% of the last 21 winners of the Falmouth also ran at Royal Ascot last time out.
Several of the main players tick this box – including Coppice, Remarquee and Random Harvest – but this is another big stat against Via Sistina, who was last seen at the Curragh in Ireland.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien and Jockey Ryan Moore Are Respected
Trainer Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore have teamed up to win 2 of the last 7 runnings of the Falmouth Stakes (Alice Springs, 2016 & Roly Poly 2017), while Moore also won the race for Stoute in 2014 on Integral.
This year, they are likely to team up with Never Ending Story, who is set to be one of the bigger-priced runners but coming from these powerful connections can’t be ruled out.
Trainer John Gosden is another yard to note – he’s won the Falmouth twice in the last 10 years with Elusive Kate (2013) and Nazeef (2020). He’ll be trying to add to that tally with Nashwa, with Hollie Doyle riding.
Past Winners: How Have The Current Champs Fared?
In short, not that great. Prosperous Voyage, who won the 2022 running, will be the latest returning winner, but you have to go back to Soviet Song in 2004 and 2005 to find the last back-to-back Falmouth Stakes winner.
Before that it was a horse called Sonic Song from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, that did the double under jockey Walter Swinburn in 1986 and 1987.
Recent Falmouth Stakes Winners
- 2022 Prosperous Voyage (16/1
- 2021 Snow Lantern (6/1)
- 2020 Nazeef (9/2)
- 2019 Veracious (6/1)
- 2018 Alpha Centauri (4/9 fav)
- 2017 Roly Poly (6/4 fav)
- 2016 Alice Springs (5/2)
- 2015 Amazing Maria (17/2)
- 2014 Integral (15/8 fav)
- 2013 Elusive Kate (3/1)
Falmouth Stakes Betting Odds
We take a look at the latest 2023 Falmouth Stakes betting odds from BetUK, where you can also get a £30 free bet to use on the race.
- Via Sistina @ 2/1
- Nashwa @ 10/3
- Remarquee @ 7/2
- Coppice @ 6/1
- Prosperous Voyage @ 6/1
- Random Harvest @ 10/1
- Never Ending Story @ 14/1
Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request
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WATCH: Prosperous Voyage Winning The 2022 Falmouth Stakes
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