You can use our Epsom racing trends to narrow down the search for the winners for the LIVE ITV action on Derby Day this afternoon (Sat, 3rd June) – which also includes the Epsom Dash.
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Epsom Racing Trends: Saturday 3rd June 2023
It’s Derby Day this Saturday horse racing fans – one of the biggest afternoons on the calendar.
This year the ITV racing cameras are also at Epsom to show ALL 8 of the Derby Day races, which of course includes the Betfred Derby at 1:30pm.
The race will be earlier this year so it doesn’t clash with the 3pm KO FA Cup Final at Wembley between Manchester City and Manchester United.
The powerful Aidan O’Brien yard will be looking for their nineth Derby success and look to hold a strong chance of getting that with one of the favourites in the betting Auguste Rodin. It will also be Frankie Dettori’s final ride in the Derby as he’s retiring at the end of the season – he will get the leg-up on the John Gosden-trained Arrest as the pocket Italian looks for his third Derby winner.
Add in Godolphin’s recent Lingfield Derby Trial winner Military Order, Dante winner The Foxes, plus the recently supplemented Passenger, who will represent last year’s winning trainer and rider – Sir Michael Stoute and Richard Kingscote – then it’s all set up for a top renewal with many chances.
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Epsom Racing Trends: Live ITV Racing Stats for Derby Day on Saturday 3rd June 2023
12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV
With 13 of the last 19 winners aged 5 or older, so the 3 year-old Kolsai has this to overcome. It’s a race the Andrew Balding yard have a good record in so at a good price their Imperial Fighter, with Oisin Murphy riding, might be worth an interest. While jockey William Buick has won the race 3 times before too and his Godolphin ride – Highland Avenue – who was third to the 2021 Derby winner Adayar last time out, brings the best form to the table.
- 19/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
- 17/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
- 17/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
- 16/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
- 14/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
- 14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/19 – Aged 5 or older
- 12/19 – Had raced at Epsom before
- 9/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
- 6/19 – Won last time out
- 5/19 – Winning favourites
- 3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
- 3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
- 2/19 – Trained by the Crisford stable
1.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV
The Dante Stakes is often a good guide to the Derby – last year’s York winner went onto win the big one at Epsom. Therefore, Two Foxes (1st), White Birch (2nd) and Passenger (3rd) all command respect. Trainer Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the history of the race and his best chance (from 3 runners) looks to be Auguste Rodin – but with 19 of the last 21 winners placed 1st or 2nd last time out the 2000 Guineas flop has this to overcome.
9 of the last 10 Derby winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc), so Passenger, Artistic Star, Military Order, Auguste Rodin, Waipiro and San Antonio all have this draw trend on their side.
Of that bunch a chance is taken on Godolphin’s Military Order, who was a gusty winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial last time out. Yes, the form of the Charlie Appleby yard could be better but the ‘boys in blue’ have won 2 of the last 5 runnings of the Epsom Derby too and with this Frankel colt having already won over 1m4f we know he stays.
Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats
- 20/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
- 19/21 – Raced no more than 5 times before
- 19/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 17/21 – Had won a Group race before
- 17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/21 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
- 14/21 – Won last time out
- 13/21 – Won from a single-figure stall
- 13/21 – Favourites that were placed
- 12/21 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
- 10/21 – Irish-trained winners
- 8/21 – Had won a Group One before
- 7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
- 7/21 – Won by the favourite
- 5/21 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
- 5/21 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
- 5/21 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
- 4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
- 2/21 – Won over 1m4f before
- 1/21 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
- 0/21 – Run at the course before
- The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7-12 (5 of the last 10 from stalls 10 (2) or 12 (3))
- 11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
- Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
- Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
- Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020
RELATED: Epsom Derby Runners 2023: Auguste Rodin Heading The Betting
2.10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV4
With 15 of the last 20 winners coming from stalls 4,5,6,7 or 8 – then Potapova, Prosperous Voyage and Random Harvest are interesting with the race only having 6 runners this year. It’s also a prize the Cheveley Park Stud like to win – landing 4 of the last 20, so their already mentioned Potapova gets another tick here.
- 20/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 19/20 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
- 17/20 – Favourites placed
- 16/20 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
- 16/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 15/20 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
- 15/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
- 15/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
- 15/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
- 13/20 – Had won between 4-6 times before
- 12/20 – Aged 4 years-old
- 11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 10/20 – Winning favourites
- 9/20 – Had raced at Epsom before
- 9/20 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
- 8/20 – Won last time out
- 7/20 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
- 4/20 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
- 4/20 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
- 2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
- 2/20 – Trained by the Channon yard
- 2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
- Jockeys Tom Marquand (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
- Godolphin have won 4 of the last 13 runnings
- The last 10 winners were drawn 8 or lower (7 of the last 10 drawn 5 or lower)
2.45 Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f ITV4
A new race to the Derby Day roster so not much to go on trends-wise. But with trainer Andrew Balding (23%) and jockey Oisin Murphy (21%) having decent strike-rates at the track with their 3 year-olds – the fact they teams up with Estate could be interesting. In contrast, the Roger Varian yard are 0-from-15 with their 3 year-olds at Epsom so their Russet Gold will be looking to overcome this.
- No previous runnings
- Trainer Andrew Balding has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
- Trainer Roger Varian is 0 from 15 with his 3 year-olds at the track
- Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 21% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track
RELATED: The Last Five Epsom Derby Winners: Where Are They Now?
3.20 – Aston Martin “Dash” (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV
Blink and you’ll miss this – the 5f track at Epsom is billed as one of the fastest in the world. 18 of the last 20 winners didn’t win last time out, while with 15 of the last 20 winners coming from stalls 8 or higher, aged between 5-8 and carrying 9-1 or less in weight these are stats to note. Taking these into account there are several that tick the boxes, but a chance is taken on the 2021 winner Mokaatil, Live In The Moment and Ancient Times.
Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats
- 18/20 – Didn’t win last time out
- 18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)
- 16/20– Unplaced favourites
- 15/20 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
- 15/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
- 15/20 – Came from stall 8 or higher
- 13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 12/20 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)
- 5/20 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
- 1/20 – Winning favourites
- Mokaatil won the race in 2021
3.55 – Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y ITV4
With 14 of the last 20 winners from stalls 5 or higher, then the lower drawn horses have struggled a bit here. But it’s another race the Andrew Balding yard have done well in – winning 3 of the last 5 – so it’s hard to ignore their Kadovar, who will also be ridden by top jockey William Buick. Stall 2 has only 3 placed finishes (1 win) in the last 20 runnings too – not great news for Fox Journey, who is one of the market leaders.
- 20/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
- 18/20 – Had won over 1m before (6 over 1m2f)
- 17/20 – Never run at Epsom before
- 14/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
- 13/20 – Placed last time out
- 12/20 – Carried 8-10 or more
- 11/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
- 9/20 – Favourites that were placed
- 8/20 – Horses placed from stall 1
- 6/19 – Won their previous race
- 3/20 – Winners from stall 1
- 3/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
- 3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
- 3/20 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
- 3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 5)
- Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 20 runnings
RELATED: What Is The Prize Money For The 2023 Epsom Derby – How Much Does The Winner Get?
4:30 Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4
4 and 5 year-olds here have the better record, so the older runners – Jungle Cove, Lucander and Haliphon are overlooked. The Sir Mark Prescott yard have their horses in great form at the moment so Sea King in the first-time cheekpieces is interesting. But it’s hard to ignore the Ryan Moore ridden Caius Chorister here. The horse is a proven CD winner and his overall form at Epsom is top-notch 1-1-2.
- 9/9 – Aged 6 or younger
- 8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 2/9 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)
- 2/9 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2)
- 2/9 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
- 2/9 – Winning favourites
5:05 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4
Mr Wagyu won this race last year and is back on just a 2lb higher mark. 7 of the last 9 winners carried 9st or less and were also aged between 4-6 years-old. A horse that ticks both is Indian Creak, from stall 9. This Channon runner will have the useful Rose Dawes taking off 5lbs too and his form at the track is impressive 1-2-2. Spring Bloom is another of interest from stall 6 and coming here having won well at Newmarket last time out. Andrea Atzeni rides.
- 9/9 – Drawn in stalls 4 or higher
- 7/9 – Drawn between stalls 4 and 10
- 7/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
- 7/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
- 3/9 – Winning favourites
- 2/9 – Trained by John Spearing
- 2/9 – Ridden by Jason Hart (2 of the last 5)
- 2/9 – Trained by John Quinn (2 of the last 5)
- 2/9 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 4)
- Mr Wagyu won the race last year
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