A month out from Boxing Day’s big race at Kempton, and the first two in the King George betting appear there on sufferance. Some 90 minutes after Shishkin refused to jump off at Ascot, Bravemansgame suffered a second odds-on defeat of the season at Haydock.
In the time it takes to play a football match, the reputation of two of jumps horse racing‘s brightest stars suffered further damage. Bravemansgame and Shishkin, rated by the handicapper in the rarefied air of the 170s as steeplechasers, flopped.
Ask anyone who has ever put their leg over a horse or pony, and they’ll you this; if an equine animal plants itself, then you can’t move it. Equipped with first-time cheekpieces, that’s precisely what happened with Shishkin in the 1965 Chase at Ascot races, which must have become Nicky Henderson’s least favourite event.
It was the contest that bottomed Altior when the Seven Barrows supremo bowed to public pressure and stepped his champion two-miler up in trip back in 2019. Fast forward four years, and Shishkin refused to race in the 2m 5f Grade 2 contest, yet remains second-favourite in the King George betting despite connections scrambling for an alternative prep.
Shishkin – “I Don’t Know What to do”
Henderson has been training horses in his own right for 45 years, but his bemused words to the press after the Ascot debacle sound alarm bells. “I don’t know what to do and I’m not sure where you can go with him,” he told reporters after Shishkin’s uncharacteristic behaviour in Berkshire.
“I’ve got to find where there’s an open handicap, as there are no conditions races for him.” That’s not entirely true, Nicky. The Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle races on Saturday, 2 December won last year by a topweight rated 164 could provide the answer. Henderson could also wait another week and run Shishkin in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon.
What next for Shishkin? @sevenbarrows is left scratching his head… pic.twitter.com/KRn4HMzh16
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) November 25, 2023
Neither is ideal prep, but nor is seeing a leading contender in the King George betting anchoring themselves at the start of their intended target. A 16-day turnaround form Peterborough Chase to the showpiece Kempton race is probably too tight for comfort. The challenge for a creature of habit like Henderson will be if and how he can think outside the box.
Shishkin, such an impressive winner of the Ascot Chase in February, could go for a racecourse gallop somewhere instead. He’ll need to be in the mood for it, of course, but a top-price 5/1 in the ante post betting for Boxing Day certainly comes with risks attached. Punters will be wondering, “will I get a run for my money?” And rightly so.
King George Betting Headed by Twice Beaten Favourite
It would be all too easy to give Paul Nicholls less criticism when he saddled a four-timer at Ascot. That’s where the master of Ditcheat sent stable jockey Harry Cobden, handing the reins of Bravemansgame over to old ally Daryl Jacob.
Nicholls was the beneficiary of the reluctant Shishkin rooting himself to the spot as Pic D’Orhy took full advantage. The satisfaction of a great day in Berkshire must be tempered by Haydock races and a disappointment which seriously brings the stamina of Bravemansgame into question.
Turned over at odds-on not once, but twice now this autumn, blind faith in Nicholls alone ensures he remains the King George betting favourite at 11/4. Bravemansgame won the race well enough 12 months ago, but hasn’t repeated the 14-length romp in four starts since.
“He was not good enough on the day, it’s as simple as that,” Nicholls said after Royale Pagaille outstayed his horse in the Betfair Chase. “No excuses. He jumped well and travelled well. I thought he was going to win four out, but he didn’t quite pick up.”
Bravemansgame Not Living up to His Mark
Nicholls believes we’ll see a better, fully tuned up Bravemansgame for a defence of the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. On Betfair Chase evidence and from Wetherby races when his Charlie Hall crown was lost on reappearance to similarly named Irish raider Gentlemansgame, there are question marks.
Defeat in West Yorkshire to a rival so light on steeplechasing experience was embarrassing, but not damaging because a final fence error settled the contest. Nicholls assured us Bravemansgame would come on for that run on testing ground, but did he? There’s merit behind the uneasiness in the King George betting over the favourite.
The facts are that on adjusted ratings and official figures respectively, Bravemansgame had 12lb in hand over Gentlemansgame and Royale Pagaille, but couldn’t beat either of them. He was race-fit compared to the Haydock specialist, yet that didn’t make a difference.
Just as horse racing betting sites have reassessed Bravemansgame odds for a Boxing Day repeat, the handicapper needs to do likewise. On what we’ve seen this autumn, he isn’t a 172-rated horse unfortunately. Nicholls’ superb record is keeping Bravemansgame at the head of the market and King George betting, but there’s another aspect to consider.
Doubts over Irish Challenge
As if anyone needed a reminder of the power amassed in Ireland, the first two home in the Stayers’ Premier Handicap Hurdle at Haydock were trained by Emmet and Willie Mullins respectively. It didn’t matter that Slate Lane carried a whole stone more than his mark in the Emerald Isle. He still won anyway.
With a month to go until the King George, we can’t be sure of how many, if any Irish raiders entered will come. Some 48 hours later, Leopardstown hosts its on festive staying steeplechase at Grade 1 level. The Savills Chase is an obvious target to keep those runners at home.
Down Royal Champion Chase hero Gerri Colombe probably won’t be suited by Kempton. The great Galopin Des Champs looks likely to have Christmastime off with the John Durkan and Irish Gold Cup again on his agenda. If there’s to be a representative from the Emerald Isle on our shores come Boxing Day, then the King George betting indicates Allaho.
😍 Love to see it!
🐎 ALLAHO IS BACK!! He wins the Clonmel Oil Chase @ClonmelR for @WillieMullinsNH & @PTownend
🎉 561 days off the track and he’s back with a bang! pic.twitter.com/le8XCQ0LgA
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) November 9, 2023
Mullins has prepared his dual Ryanair Chase winner for the Cheltenham Festival at Thurles in a lower grade before, however. Allaho is now into joint second-favourite with some of the leading betting sites for the King George at 4/1. An easy 3m should suit him.
Williams Has Strong Hand
If not Allaho, Bravemansgame or Shishkin, then who? Venetia Williams pair L’Homme Presse and Royale Pagaille have claims. The former unseated in the King George at the final fence last year with the latter inheriting second place. Royale Pagaille has reversed that form with his Haydock heroics.
We haven’t seen L’Homme Presse since last Boxing Day at the time of writing. Williams takes her time with horses that have had falls or other problems. The impressive weight-carrying performance of L’Homme Presse at Gosforth Park in the Rehearsal last season marked him down as a serious horse. He’s at 8/1 in the King George betting now.
Royale Pagaille obviously threw his hat into the ring for a bid at going one better at Kempton than last season. Haydock is the track where Rich & Susannah Ricci’s horse wins most often, but soft ground is a major help. Royale Pagaille was still 14/1 in a couple of places after his Betfair Chase triumph.
Seldom in recent years has the King George betting looked so clouded by difficulty and uncertainty. Many punters won’t be prepared to bet against Nicholls adding a record-extending 14th win in the race. It is a genuine Christmas puzzle for punters this time around.
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