We’ve got the main Haydock horse racing trends and tips ahead Saturday’s top card at the Lancashire track that is headlined by the Grade One Betfair Chase that includes last season’s winner Protektorat, King George hero Bravemansgame and the current Grand National victor Corach Rambler.
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Haydock Horse Racing Trends (Sat 25th Nov 2023): Including Stats For The Betfair Chase
Top class jumps action at Haydock Park on Saturday and the ITV horse racing cameras are at the track to take in five of their seven race Betfair-sponsored card.
The card starts at 12:05pm, but the LIVE ITV coverage begins at 1:15pm with a competitive handicap – a race that Stainsby Girl won last year and is back for more.
However, it’s the Betfair Chase (3:00pm) that spearheads the Haydock action on Saturday and despite only four runners for the Grade One affair it’s quality over quantity with a quartet of well-known names.
Last year’s winner Protektorat tries to defend his title, we also see the 2022 King George VI winner Bravemansgame heading to Haydock as trainer Paul Nicholls looks to win the prize for a seventh time.
We also have course specialist Royale Pagaille, who will love conditions, and last year’s Grand National hero Corach Rambler taking on the big-boys for the first time.
It’s all set for a cracking renewal and to help find the Haydock winners from the LIVE ITV races on Saturday we’ve got all the big race stats.
Plus, the ITV racing cameras are also at Ascot on Saturday and you can see all the key trends there too.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Saturday 25th November 2023
1.15 – Best Odds On Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV
A tricky opener for the live ITV races so last year’s winner Stainsby Girl has to be on the shortlist as one of just two past CD winners in the race – the other being Albert’s Back.
However, it’s the 5 and 6 year-olds that have the best recent record here and with that in mind, Park Hill Dancer, Carnfunnock, Park Annonciade and Lunar Power are the four that tick this age stat.
Of that bunch, the Nicky Henderson-trained Park Hill Dancer at 4/1 with BetMGM ticks a lot of boxes and impressed last time at Uttoxeter with a facile 4-length win. He’s up 8lbs for that, so more on his plate, but still looks fairly well-treated off a mark of 123 and this will also only be his sixth career hurdles run – should have more to come.
- 9/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
- 8/11 – Carried 10-12 or more
- 8/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 8/11 – Won between 1-2 times before
- 8/11 – Irish bred
- 7/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd in last race
- 7/11 – Won over at least 2m2f before
- 4/11 – Ridden by a conditional claiming jockey
- 3/11 – Favourites
- Stainsby Girl (16/1) won the race in 2022
1.50 – Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Graduation Chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV
A race the Paul Nicholls yard have a top record in with 9 of the last 12 winners. However, they are giving the others a chance this year with no runners entered.
We’ve a rare Haydock runner for the Willie Mullins yard in Cheltenham Festival winner Gaillard Du Mesnil, who was also last seen running a blinder to take bronze in the Grand National at Aintree. Conditions will be ideal, but will the drop back to 2m 5 1/2f suit is the big question as this horse is very one-paced and all about stamina. If Patrick Mullins can keep in in touch, then he’d be hard to beat staying up the Haydock straight.
He’ll face stern test though from the improving Grey Dawning, who blew away the cobwebs at Exeter (3rd) last month and will love the ground.
While Apple’s Away at 15/8 with BetMGM could be interesting over fences for the first time. This talented hurdler from the Lucinda Russell yard was also going to progress over fences this season and heads here having won four of her last seven hurdles starts.
The horse is sure to have been well-schooled for this and we know she stays further having won over 3m over hurdles, which will help in the ground. If her jumping holds up then with ust 10-7 to carry with the mares’ allowance, she’s worth chancing.
- 12/12 – 0-2 wins over fences
- 11/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 11/12 – Priced 7/2 or shorter
- 10/12 – Finished in the top 2 in last race
- 9/12 – Rated between 144-149
- 8/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 7/12 – 0-2 runs over fences
- 7/12 – Favourites
- 6/12 – Won last race
2.20 – Betfair ‘Serial Winners’ Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ½f ITV
The Haydock trends here tell us that horses aged between 5 and 7 have done best here, plus those rated between 132 and 144. With that in mind, the top five on the card tick these boxes – Bod Endeavour, Wakool, Howlingmadmurdock, Gowel Road and Crambo.
Of that bunch, the Fergal O’Brien-trained Crambo at 3/1 with BetMGM returned at the end of last month with a nice win at Aintree and a 6lb hike for that doesn’t look too harsh. He’s won on heavy ground in the past too and will come here having now won four of his six starts over hurdles.
- 16/18– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
- 15/18 – Carried 10-9 or more
- 15/18 – Won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
- 14/18 – Rated between 132 and 144
- 12/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
- 12/18 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019)
- 9/18 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 9/18 – Favourites placed
- 9/18 – From the top 3 in the betting
- 8/18 – French bred
- 8/18 – Won last race
- 6/18 – Ran at Haydock before
- 3/18 – Favourites (1 joint)
3.00 – Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m 1 1/2f ITV
Just the four runners for the 2023 Betfair Chase but they will all have their supporters. Last year’s winner Protektorat goes well fresh and comes here off the back of another wind op after failing to win a race after taking this 12 months ago. He was last seen running 5th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.
Course specialist Royale Pagaille has top form figures at Haydock 1-1-2-1 and will love the ground – he was 6th in the Gold Cup, so closely matched with Protektorat and the Venetia Williams yard have their horses in great form (12 winners from last 28, 43%) at the time of writing. Of those at bigger prices, he’s worth a saver.
The Grand National winner, Corach Rambler disappointed on his return run at Kelso last month and is now in with the big boys off level weights. He’s rated 159 and that’s a full 7lbs lower than last year’s winner of this race and also 13lbs inferior to the favourite Bravemansgame. The jury is also out just to how much that National win took out of him.
Paul Nicholls Looking For Seventh Betfair Chase Win
Bravemansgame at 8/11 with BetMGM is the final runner, for the Paul Nicholls camp, who are looking for their seventh success in this race. He returned earlier this month in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and after looking all over the winner heading to last, fluffed his lines and let the Mouse Morris-trained Gentlemansgame in to win.
Last season’s King George winner still holds the best form in the race though and is the clear top-rated at 172. Yes, he’s not won a race since that Kempton Boxing Day win, but has run solid races in defeat – including a silver in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he had Protektorat and Royale Pagaille well back.
Soft ground is fine too and even though he’s got a tad to prove at the moment is taken to get back to winning ways here before heading back to Kempton on Boxing day for his King George defence. Royale Pagaille can do best of the rest at a venue we know he loves and for a trainer in tip-top form at the moment.
Betfair Chase Trends 2023
- 18 Past runnings
- 16/18 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
- 15/18 – Won a Grade One chase before
- 15/18 – Won by and Irish (4) or French (11) bred horse
- 14/18 – Top three finish last time out
- 13/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
- 13/18 – Ran at Haydock before
- 12/18 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
- 11/18 – Placed favourites
- 9/18 – Aged 8 or older
- 9/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
- 8/18 – Won by a past inner of the race
- 8/18 – Favourites
- 7/18 – Ran at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
- 6/18 – Won last time out
- 4/18 – Ran at Aintree last time out
- The average winning price in the last 18 runnings is 5/1
- Just 1 Irish-trained winner yet
- 10 of the last 11 winners aged 9 or younger
- The Paul Nicholls yard has won the race in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
3.35 – Betfair ‘Free Racing Multiple’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m 1 1/2f ITV
The final race on card is a staying chase over 3m 1/2f and with 10 of the last 11 winners carrying 10-10 or more this will help knock out some. Horses aged between 6-8 have done best too, while also look for those with just 1-3 past wins over fences.
With that in mind, Credo and Docpickedme catch the eye and are worth chancing in a tricky finale. Credo at 4/1 with BetMGM was a good winner at Wincanton last time out and despite a 7lb rise this 8 year-old is an improving stayer and certainly won’t mind the ground.
The 7 year-old Docpickedme at 9/2 with BetMGM returned earlier this month with a fine second at Warwick on his first run for the Richard Hobson team (previously with Harry Whittington) and is only up 3lbs for that.
- 12/12 – Aged 9 or younger
- 11/12 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
- 11/12 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 10/12 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
- 10/12 – Irish (7) or French (3) bred
- 10/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
- 9/12 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
- 8/12 – Raced at Haydock
- 8/12 – Placed in the top 3 in last race
- 8/12 – Won over at least 3m
- 7/12 – Rated between 135 and 145 (inc)
- 7/12 – Favourites placed
- 7/12 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
- 6/12 – Won last race
- 3/12 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
Haydock Full Running Order: Saturday 25th November 2023
- 12:05: Betfair Racing Podcasts Newton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m7½f RTV
- 12:40: betting.betfair.com Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m½f RTV
- 1:15: Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV
- 1:50: Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5½f ITV
- 2:20: Betfair “Serial Winners” Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m½f ITV
- 3:00: Betfair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1½f ITV
- 3:35: Betfair “Free Racing Multiple Today” Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m1½f ITV
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