Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the afternoon Flat meeting at Thirsk for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, April 9th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
THIRSK 3.45
PURPLE MARTINI (system – Mayson, sprint handicaps on turf, fresh)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have a good record in 5f-6f handicaps on turf, landing 177 of their 1247 starts (14.2% strike-rate). We’d have made a loss by backing the blind at SP (-£42.06, -3.4% on turnover) but that loss would have been a profit of more than £300 had we taken the best early price the night before racing. Backing only the fresh qualifiers – those rested for six weeks or longer – would have found 39 winners from 257 bets (15.2%) for a profit of £121.45 to a £1 level stake at SP. PURPLE MARTINI contributed with a 6-1 soft-ground Redcar win on her reappearance in the corresponding week last year and first time out might be when to catch her.
THIRSK 4.15
SHOWALONG (system – Tim Easterby, April, second run after a break, 4yo+)
Tim Easterby’s race-fit older runners (4yo+) do well in the month of April, with those having their second run after a break of at last 120 days landing 19 of their 141 starts (13.5%) since 2012 for a profit of £49.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. The sprint handicappers were nine from 52 (+£58.00) and SHOWALONG looks very solid in this 5f contest. The six-year-old had a spin at Doncaster 16 days ago – his first start since early November – and his record on his second start of the season reads 1121 (3-4), with the defeat by half a length at odds of 14-1.
THIRSK 5.15
LOVE YOUR WEEK (system – Helmet, heavy going)
At the time of writing the ground at Thirsk was described as soft but with 14mm of rain forecast before the opening race it’s likely to be heavy by the time they go to post for this 1m handicap. Flat progeny of the sire Helmet have a ten from 55 record on actual heavy ground (based on Proform’s going allowance) for a profit of £23.83 to a £1 level stake at SP and LOVE YOUR WEEK, who represents in-form Darryll Holland, was beaten by half a length into second place at Chester last September on his most recent start on this sort of ground and looks the one to beat.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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