Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has four selections at Ayr (the first day of the Western meeting), Chelmsford and Newcastle on Thursday, September 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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AYR 1.20
TWO RIVERS (system – Keith Dalgleish, second-time out 2yos)
Since the beginning of 2014, Keith Dalgleish is 33 from 190 with his second-time-out juveniles (17.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners was just over 22 and had we only bet those who were in the top seven on their debuts we’d have made a profit of £66.15. TWO RIVERS finished well held when seventh at Carlisle on his debut but was very green that day and is likely to improve significantly for that initial experience. His yard is in good form and second-time out is usually when to back progeny of Churchill.
AYR 3.00
FIRST IMPRESSION (system – John Quinn, Ayr)
In-form John Quinn has a fine record at Ayr (Flat and jumps combined), scoring with 42 of his 224 runners since 2010 (18.8%) for a profit of £65.46. FIRST IMPRESSION contributed when taking this Class 2 handicap at odds of 17-2 in 2020 and he also won his only other course start – a maiden back in October 2019 – at 16-1. He obviously goes well in the autumn months and fared best of the prominent racers when third of 15 under a big weight at York last time.
CHELMSFORD 5.00
MOVING FOR GOLD (system – Henry Spiller stable switchers, all-weather)
Henry Spiller does well at the first-time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially on the all-weather. He’s scored with seven of the 33 qualifiers for a profit of £23.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Four of the qualifiers wore first-time headgear, as MOVING FOR GOLD does here, and two of them won (11-1 and 8-1). He looks well drawn and is worth chancing at big odds (25-1 at the time of writing).
NEWCASTLE 6.15
TREGONY (system – New Bay handicappers, top three last time out)
Progeny of New Bay have a great record when arriving at the races on the back of top-three finish, especially in handicap company. No less than 55 of the 147 qualifiers have won (37.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £115.99 to a £1 level stake at SP. Two of today’s four qualifiers run in this contest, with TREGONY preferred to WHITE WILLOW as his patient running style is likely to be more effective.
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RELATED: Today’s NAP of the Day – Horse Racing Best Bet on Thursday 15th Sept
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Related
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