Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Saturday (January 27th) and Andrew has five stats-based selections at Cheltenham, Newcastle and Kempton. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHELTENHAM 3.35
STRONG LEADER (system – Olly Murphy, first-time cheekpieces, hurdles)
With three of the first four in the betting for the Cleeve Hurdle aged 12, 12 and 11, the race could be ideal for a young pretender to take a step forward. I’m going to chance seven-year-old STRONG LEADER, the youngest horse in the line-up, in the hope that the first-time cheekpieces bring about improvement. Since the start of 2021, Olly Murphy has a 12 from 51 record when using this headgear on a hurdler for a profit of £33.83 to a £1 level stake at SP and the drying ground will suit.
NEWCASTLE 4.45
RETIREMENT BECKONS (system – Linda Perratt, all-weather, two or more recent runs)
Since the beginning of last year, Linda Perratt is 20 from 58 with her all-weather runners who had had at least two runs in the past three months (expected winners = 8.81, A/E = 2.27). Backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £89.75 and RETIREMENT BECKONS, well drawn ins stall 8, can add to recent gains.
NEWCASTLE 5.45
INNS OF YORK (system – Nigel Tinkler, first-time visor)
Nigel Tinkler’s INNS OF YORK has beaten only one rival in her three previous starts, but all came when big prices in novice company on turf and the switch to the all-weather and application of a first-time visor could help to bring about the necessary improvement on her handicap debut. Since the spring of 2016, her trainer is five from 27 with this headgear for a profit of £66.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Eight of the 19 beaten horses also made the frame, often at big prices.
KEMPTON 6.30
HIERONYMUS (system – George Baker, 7f handicaps, Kempton)
George Baker has a 20 from 110 record (18.2%) in 7f handicaps at Kempton and backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £69.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. HIERONYMUS has form figures over today’s course and distance of 1161 (3-4), including a last-time-out success, and can follow up.
KEMPTON 8.30
ZIVANIYA (system – Hugo Palmer, first-time blinkers)
Hugo Palmer has a 16 from 116 record (13.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £18.13 to a £1 level stake at SP, including a ten from 51 haul with the geldings for a profit of £36.38. ZIVANIYA is an 11-race maiden but finished a close-up third in a first-time visor at Newcastle in October and the new headgear could bring about the required improvement.
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