The wait is over folks as the top horse racing action is back at Prestbury Park and to help find the winners you can use our key Cheltenham November Meeting trends 2023 to highlight the best profiles in each of Friday’s four LIVE ITV Racing contests.
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Cheltenham November Meeting Trends: Day One Stats To Find The Friday ITV Racing Winners
The tapes go up for the 2023 Cheltenham November Meeting on Friday (17th Nov) and to help narrow down your search for the winners, here at SportsLens we’ve pinpointed the key big race trends and stats for each of the LIVE ITV4 races.
We get going on day one of the Cheltenham November Meeting with FOUR LIVE races in the ITV network. These include the SSS Super Alloys Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (2:20pm), where the exciting Joe Tizzard-trained JPR One is back in action.
Another of the big opening day Cheltenham highlights is the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (2:55pm), which is run over the unique inner cross-country course and sees the winner of the last two runnings, Back On The Lash looking to hit the back of the net for a third time for his famous part-owner Harry Redknapp.
See below the best Cheltenham trends and stats for each of the four LIVE ITV races – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best horse profiles based on previous winners.
You can also get ahead of the game by heading over to our Paddy Power Gold Cup trends page, ahead of Saturday’s big Cheltenham race. Plus see our Friday 1-2-3 best bets and top Lucky 15 Cheltenham pick for day one.
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends: Friday 17th November 2023
1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m ITV4
A tricky opener, with many chances, but the trends tell us that having 11st 7lbs or less has helped in recent years with 80% of the last 20 winners ticking this stat.
Looking for horses in the top three in the betting (9/1 or less) and that had track experience too are further pluses, as is having at least five runs over fences in the past.
With all this in mind, the Tizzard-trained TRIPLE TRADE at 4/1 with BetMGM seems to have plenty in his favour. This 7 year-old blew away the cobwebs here at Cheltenham last month with a fine second to Dancing On My Own and is up just a pound for that. That first run at the track will be a big positive.
This will also be his tenth run over fences but has already hit the top two five times (2 wins) and the icing on the cake being the stable also won this prize 12 months ago with Amarillo Sky.
- 19/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- 17/20 – Had run at Cheltenham before
- 17/20 – Ran 5+ times over fences
- 16/20 – Carried 11st 7lb or less in weight
- 16/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
- 12/20 – Unplaced last time out
- 11/20 – Placed favourites
- 11/20 – Came from top 3 in the betting
- 11/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
- 10/20 – Having their first run of the season
- 8/20 – French-bred horse
- 4/20 – Favourites
- 3/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
- 3/20 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 2/20 – Won their most recent race
- 0/20 – Irish-trained winners
- 3 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
2.20 – SSS Super Alloys Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m4f110y ITV4
Just the four runners here, which is a shame – but it’s still a tight little race with all of the quartet having chances. Petit Tonnerre has a good record fresh. Therefore, the 245-day break isn’t too much of an issue and this Jonjo O’Neill runner, who was 7th in the County Hurdle, could be interesting on chase debut.
Irish raider Mighty Tom and recent Wetherby scorer Public Homme will have their backers too, but with 11 of the last 15 runnings being taken by a 6 year-old JPR ONE at 6/4 with BetMGM is the call.
This Tizzard runner caught the eye when winning at Newton Abbot on his first run over fences last month and with that also coming with give underfoot the soft ground will be fine. He was well back in the 2022 Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival but has improved since and is shaping up to be a better chaser than hurdler. Will also head here having won 50% of his eight career starts.
- 20/20 – Aged 5 or older
- 18/20 – Won between 0 and 1 times over fences before
- 18/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
- 17/20 – Raced between 0 and 2 times over fences
- 17/20 – Top three finish last time out
- 15/20 – Ran at Cheltenham before
- 15/20 – Finished in the first two last time out
- 14/20 – Placed favourites
- 12/20 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old (11 of last 15 runnings)
- 11/20 – Had a run already that season
- 10/20 – Irish-bred horse
- 10/20 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
- 10/20 – Won their latest race
- 8/20 – French-bred horse
- 8/20 – Ran at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) last time out
- 8/20 – First run over fences
- 8/20 – Favourites
- 7/20 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
2.55 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m4f ITV4
The Cross Country races at Cheltenham are not everyone’s cup of tea, but what they have told us over the years is that previous course experience is a huge plus.
We’ve also got a top renewal in prospect with the Irish sending over both Delta Work and Galvin, who were first and second in the Festival Cross Country back in March. There was 2 1/2 lengths between the Gordon Elliott pair that day on level weights and shouldn’t be a lot between them again.
However, it’s also hard to ignore the winner of this race for the last two years – BACK ON THE LASH (e/w) at 6/1 with BetMGM and he looks the better value – as, don’t forget, unlike the Festival X-Country, this race is a handicap. Therefore, this Martin Keighley runner gets in here with just 10-3 to carry and receives a monster 25lbs from Galvin and 24lbs off former Grand National third Delta Work.
Part-owned by Harry Redknapp too and is taken to use his light weight to score again and land the hatrick.
- 19/19 – Ran Cheltenham before
- 16/19 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
- 15/19 – Either Irish (9) or French (6) bred
- 14/19 – Unplaced last time out
- 14/19 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
- 14/19 – Had run already that season
- 13/19 – Won 5+ times over fences
- 13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 13/19 – Ran over this Cross County course previously (9 won)
- 13/19 – Placed favourites
- 13/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
- 10/19 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
- 10/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
- 7/19 – Favourites (5 of the last 10)
- 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-2 or less in weight
- 7 of the last 10 winners aged 8 or older
- 6 of the last 10 winners carried between 10st – 10st 11lbs
- 4 of the last 10 runnings won by a previous winner
- Martin Keighley and Sean Bowen have teamed up to win the last two
- The Philip Hobbs stable have won 2 of the last 10 runnings
3.30 – Trustatrader Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
This is a race the Paul Nicholls yard won 12 months ago with Hermes Allen and they look to have another big chance of adding to that with CAPTAIN TEAGUE at 8/13 with BetMGM.
A winner at Chepstow last time out in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdles, when powering away by 9 1/2 lengths and despite some sketchy jumps at times looks to have a real engine, while the stiff Cheltenham finish looks sure to play to his strengths.
He can take this and then have the Challow Hurdle over Christmas at Newbury in his sights – a race Hermes Allen also won last season.
- 18/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
- 18/18 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
- 16/18 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
- 13/18 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
- 13/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 13/18 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
- 13/18 – Aged 5 years-old
- 12/18 – Raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
- 12/18 – Won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
- 11/18 – Won last time out
- 10/18 – Won just once before (under rules)
- 6/18 – Ran at Cheltenham before
- 4/18 – Favourites
- 2/18 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Note: Odds are subject to change
Cheltenham November Meeting Running Order: Friday 17th, Nov 2023
See below the full Friday Cheltenham November Meeting times and running order – plus you can see all this week’s races and schedule for the whole three-day fixture here.
- 1:10 – Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Series Qual’) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-125) 2m5f RTV
- 1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-150) 2m ITV4
- 2:20 – SSS Super Alloys Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
- 2:55 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m5½f ITV4
- 3:30 – Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Hyde Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4
- 4:05 – Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-125) 2m½f RTV
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