Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY ONE: Including Champion Hurdle & Arkle Chase

See below our in-depth ‘positive and negative’ Cheltenham Festival trends 2024 for DAY ONE of the meeting, which kicks-off on Tuesday 12th March this year.

Cheltenham Festival Trends on Day One: Tuesday 12th March 2024

The wait is almost over for horse racing fans as the biggest four days of jumps action anywhere on the planet – the Cheltenham Festival 2024 – starts on Tuesday 12th March.

We’ve seven races on each of the four days to enjoy and, as always, on the opening day the Cheltenham roar can be heard all across the Cotswolds when the tape goes up for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

By using the key Cheltenham Festival trends below, you can put history on your side and find the best profile of past results and winners and hopefully these stats can point you in the direction of many winners.

Afterall, if a certain horse, weight, age, trainer, jockey or owner has done well in a race in the past – there’s a decent chance they will again.

More 2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY TWO: Including Champion Chase & Cross Country
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY THREE: Including Stayers’ Hurdle & Ryanair Chase
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY FOUR: Including Gold Cup and County Hurdle

WATCH: All the 2023 Cheltenham Festival Day One Finishes

Cheltenham Festival Trends on Tuesday

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2023 Winner: Marine Nationale
Trainer – Barry Connell
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish

2024 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends

The Festival curtain-raiser will also get the biggest ‘Cheltenham Roar’ as the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle gets the 2024 Meeting going. Trainer Willie Mullins is the leading handler with seven Supreme wins, while Nicky Henderson has landed three of the last eight.

Meaning since 2013, Mullins have Hendo have mobbed up eight wins between them (from 11).

POSITIVES

• 24 of the last 27 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 20 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 12 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 11 of the last 12 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
• 21 of the last 29 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 18 of the last 32 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 17 of the last 19 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 11 years
• 8 of the last 11 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
• 26 of the last 29 winners had raced that same calendar year
• 6 of the last 10 winners had been rated 153 or more
• 10 of the last 11 winners returned a single-figure price
• 10 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper winners
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 11 runnings

NEGATIVES

• Just 4 of the last 21 winners came here unbeaten
• Just 1 of the last 21 winners aged 7 or older
• Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 19 runnings
• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 27. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade

2.10 – Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2023 Winner: EL FABIOLO (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

2024 Arkle Novices’ Chase Trends

Another top race for Nicky Henderson – winning the race seven times and more than any other trainer. Willie Mullins is catching him up though – with 5 wins in the last nine – plus it’s been a decent race for the favourite with 9 of the last 12 winning.

POSITIVES

• Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
• Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 9 runnings (all French-bred)
• 9 of the last 12 winners trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Nicky Henderson (4)
• 14 of the last 19 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 18 of the last 24 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• The last 14 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
• 22 of the last 24 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 14 of the last 18 winners had won at least twice over fences before
• 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 15 of the last 21 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 14 of the last 20 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
• 9 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over fences
• 9 of the last 12 favourites have won

NEGATIVES

• 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
• Only 2 of the last 37 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 33 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 4 of the last 32 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• Ex-flat horses have a poor record
• Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
• Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

    2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2023 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer – Lucinda Russell
Jockey – Derek Fox
UK/Irish: UK

2024 Ultima Handicap Chase Trends

Won for the last two season’s by Corach Rambler and after his 2023 success franked the form by landing the Aintree Grand National. However, the Liverpool hero is expected to run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year as he hunts his third Festival success.

Unlike the first two day one races, the Cheltenham Festival trends for the Ultima Chase tell us that Willie Mullins is still to win this prize.

POSITIVES

• 18 of the last 24 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 16 of the last 23 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 19 of the last 23 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 17 of the last 23 were novices or second season chasers
• 9 of the last 21 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 10 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 16 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 15 of the last 23 runnings
• 10 of the last 14 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• Northern-based runners have a good record
• 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
• 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
• 12 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before

NEGATIVES

• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 19 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Corach Rambler in 2023 carried 10st 5bs)
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 55 to even get placed
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 55 runnings (since 1967)
• Irish-trained runners are 0-38 in the last 17 runnings
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 25
• Only 3 winners in the last 15 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1

    3.30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2023 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL (1^st 4/11 fav)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK

2024 Champion Hurdle Trends

The Champion Hurdle has been in the news in the build-up to the race with last year’s winner Constitution Hill a big doubt.

This has paved the way for the 2023 runner-up State Man, who has also won the last two Irish Champion Hurdles, as the clear one to beat.

Remarkably, the Cheltenham Festival trends here also tell it’s a race either the Irish or Nicky Henderson have won a staggering 21 times in the last 25 (84%).

Gordon Elliott has never won the Champion Hurdle.

POSITIVES

• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 runnings between them
• 10 of the last 15 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• 34 of the last 40 won last time out
• 10 of the last 14 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (11 of last 13)
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 25 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 14 (9 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
• 28 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)
• 15 of the last 25 winners had won at the Festival before
• 26 of the last 39 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 16 runnings)
• 14 of the last 28 winners started as flat horses
• The last 9 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 7 years
• 7 of the last 15 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 8 runnings
• 8 of the last 11 favourites won

NEGATIVES

• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26^th Dec) winners are just 5 from 33, but – Epatante 2020 & 2023 Constitution Hill) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 20 years)
• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 112 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 41 runnings)
• Just 1 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Only 2 of the last 25 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
• The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 52 years ago (Bula)

    4.10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2023 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

2024 Mares’ Hurdle Trends

Shock-horror folks – yet another Cheltenham Festival day one contest a certain Willie Mullins likes to farm – winning the prize no fewer than nine times.

And with his star grey Lossiemouth one of the meeting bankers it will be a brave punter that says Mullins won’t be getting his tenth win in the race

POSITIVES

• Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 16 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• Follow Irish-trained mares (13 of last 16)
• The favourite (or 2^nd fav) have won 12 of the last 16 runnings
• 9 of the last 16 favourites have won
• 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 15 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 12 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
• 12 of the last 16 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 13 of the last 16 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

NEGATIVES

• Just one winner from last 32 runners to wear headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 3-90
• Just 1 outright favourite in the last 9 runnings
• Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)

    4.50 – Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2023 Winner: JAZZY MATTY (18/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish

2024 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle Trends

The Boodles – or Fred Winter to some still – is always a competitive handicap hurdle to unravel.

However, the key trends here tell us you can’t go too far wrong backing trainers Gordon Elliott (4) and Paul Nicholls (3) – the pair have seven wins in recent times between them.

Over the years though, Willie Mullins has seemingly given the others a chance here – he’s yet to win the race.

POSITIVES

• 12 of the last 19 winners carried 11st+
• 9 of the last 19 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 13 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 19 had run in the last 25 days
• 10 of the last 19 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• 10 of the last 19 winners started their careers in France
• Respect Fillies
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 11) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 12 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 12 priced 25/1+)
• 13 of the last 19 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 16 winners were British-trained
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 14 runnings
• 14 of the last 19 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

NEGATIVES

• Horses bred in Britain are 0-63 (last 14 years)
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 20 (just 3 placed in top 5 too)
• Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 40 between them
• Just 3 of the last 19 winners rated 135+
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 19

    5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

2023 Winner: GAILLARD DU MESNIL 10/11 fav
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish

2024 National Hunt Chase Trends

The final Cheltenham Festival day one race is for the amateur riders and over a stamina-sapping 3m5f trip.

Trainers Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have never won the race, but note Gordon Elliott – he’s got four wins to his name. Also respect Willie Mullins again with four wins since 2013, including the last two.

Plus, popular owner JP McManus has won the race six times over the years too.

POSITIVES

• 10 of the last 14 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 9
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 13 runners
• 13 of the last 22 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (24 of the last 33)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had run 5+ times over fences
• 11 of the last 13 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
• 7 of the last 13 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 8 of the last 17 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 10 of the last 13 winners returned a single-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 9 of the last 13 winners Irish-trained
• 10 of the last 13 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 5 places (from 17 rides)
• Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 9 of the last 13 (4 Mullins, 3 Codd, 2 O’Connor)
• 3 of the last 6 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett

NEGATIVES

• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race – he’s currently 0 from 19
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 83 since 1989
• Just 5 of the last 13 winners were top-rated
• Favourites have won just 4 of the last 14 runnings
• Just 2 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 years-old
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 15)
• Just 2 winners in the last 15 returned bigger than 12/1