Use our 2023 Royal Ascot trends on day three (Thursday 22nd June) as we give you the key stats for ALL SEVEN of the races. You can use these trends to put history on your side and find the best profiles of horses based on previous winners of each race.
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2023 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends: Thursday 22nd June 2023
The Royal Ascot 2023 action moves into Thursday 22nd June as the biggest flat horse racing meeting around heads into day three and Ladies Day.
On Thursday, there are seven more races that include the Group Two Norfolk and Ribblesdale Stakes, but it’s the Ascot Gold Cup that is the feature at 4:20pm – many people’s idea of the biggest race of the entire five days.
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Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends: Live ITV Racing Stats on Thursday 22nd June 2023
2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV
This has been a good race for US trainer Wesley Ward with wins in 2013 and 2018 – he runs the speedy-looking American Rascal. It’s also a race Frankie Dettori has won 4 times (No Nay Mets) and Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 8 – he’s got His Majesty running, which is sure to attract interest with a name like that. The Fahey camp have also won the last two and run Malc to try and land the three-timer – he could surprise at a price. But it’s hard to ignore Elite Status here after winning both starts impressively – the last being a 5 length Listed win at Sandown. His owner, Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has also been in the winners’ enclosure this week at Royal Ascot.
Norfolk Stakes Trends
- 20/20 – Had at least 1 previous run
- 19/20 – Previous winners over 5f
- 18/20 – Had never raced at Ascot before
- 17/20 – Had a RPR of 105+
- 16/20 – Won their previous race
- 14/20 – Foaled in March or April
- 11/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
- 11/20 – Favourites placed
- 7/20 – Returned a double-figure price
- 3/20 – Winning favourites
- 3/20 – Ran at Windsor last time out
- 2/20 – Trained by Wesley Ward
- 2/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (4 wins in total)
- 2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 8 winners
- Paul Hanagan and Richard Fahey have won the last 2 runnings
- 11 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)
3.05 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV
80% of the last 20 winners carried 8st 13lbs or less, while 55% won last time out and returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting. However, the big stat here is to look out for any Charlie Appleby, Sir Michael Stoute or Johnston (now Charlie) runners as between them they’ve won 8 of the last 20 runnings. Appleby has Tagabawa, Stoute runs Perfuse, while the Johnston camp have Struth and Crackovia.
King George V Stakes Trends
- 19/20 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
- 19/20 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
- 19/20 – Never raced at Ascot before
- 19/20 – Placed last time out
- 16/20 – Carried 8-13 or less
- 14/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
- 11/20 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
- 11/20 – Favourites placed
- 11/20 – Won their previous race
- 6/20 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or the Johnston yard (4)
- 4/20 – Ran at Haydock last time out
- 4/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
- 3/20 – Godolphin-owned (Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 8)
- 11 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
- 8 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)
3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £77,092 1m4f ITV
A race that has been kind to Frankie Dettori over the years – winning it 8 times – and in his final spin in the contest he’ll be trying for another on the Ralph Beckett runner Bluestocking, who can go well. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 3 of the last 9 too and has Warm Heart going for more glory, but it’s also a prize John Gosden has won 5 times. He runs the promising Al Asifah, who is 2-from-2 after wins at Haydock and Goodwood this season. The last was an easy 6 1/2 length win in a Listed race and with connections supplementing her for the race recently this is another clear sign she’s ready to rumble.
Ribblesdale Stakes Trends
- 17/20 – Had never raced at Ascot before
- 16/20 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
- 15/20 – Placed in their previous race
- 14/20 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
- 14/20 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/20 – Placed favourites
- 11/20 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
- 7/20 – Won their last race
- 7/20 – Irish-trained winners (6 of last 11)
- 5/20 – Winning favourites
- 5/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (8 wins in total)
- 4/20 – Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
- 3/20 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (5 in total)
- 3/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 9)
- 3/20 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
- 3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
- 9 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
4.20 – Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV
The Ascot Gold Cup trends tell us that horses aged 6 or younger have the best record – winning 90% of the last 21 – which means the older runners, Echoes In Rain, Broome, Trueshan and Nate The Great have this age stat to overcome. With 8 wins in the race, Frankie Dettori will also be looking to grab the headlines in what will be his last ride in the contest – he gets the leg-up on Courage Mon Ami and is sure to be popular.
Godolphin have won the race 5 times and try again with Yibir, but Megan Nicholls doesn’t think the horse will stay. Aidan O’Brien has past wins in the race and has Broome and Emily Dickinson – the later looks interesting now upped in trip and is certainly one for the shortlist.
Last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov has been popular in the betting, but needs to prove he’ll stay this far, but the other at the head of the market is Coltrane and he looks solid. He won the Ascot Stakes at this meeting last year over 2m4f and since then has improved into a top ‘cup horse’. He landed the Sagaro Stakes last time here too over 2m and with 17 of the last 21 winners having won previously over 2m, assured stamina is often a plus here. He can go close to giving Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy their first Gold Cup wins.
Ascot Gold Cup Trends
- 19/21 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
- 19/21 – Aged 6 or younger
- 18/21 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
- 17/21 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
- 16/21 – Favourites that were placed
- 16/21 – Won their last race
- 14/21 – Previous Group 1 winners
- 12/21 – Won by the favourite
- 10/21 – Aged 4 years-old (8 of the last 11)
- 9/21 – Irish-trained winners
- 8/21 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
- 5/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (8 wins in total) (3 of the last 5)
- 5/21 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
- 3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 10)
- 15 of the last 17 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 11 of the last 17 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
- 10 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc) (last 6 winners came from stalls 7 or lower)
- Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004 & 2012
- Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2022, 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
- John Gosden has trained the winner in 2018, 2019 and 2020
- Since 1949 there have been 15 multiple winners of the race
5.00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m ITV4
30 runners heading to post here, so many chances. It’s a race Frankie Dettori has only won once before (1998, Plan-B) – he’ll be trying to add to that with Quantum Impact, who has been popular in the betting. 80% of the last 20 winners were placed last time out and 70% carried 8-13 or less in weight. Jockey’s Ryan Moore (3) and Jamie Spencer (4) also love to win this race, so their rides Carracci and Benacre must be respected too. Two of the last 3 winners came from stall 19 too (Dark Thirty), plus 13 of the last 17 hailed from a double-figure berth.
However, one horse at a price that ticks a lot of the stats is Metal Merchant for the Channon yard – drawn high and has a low weight, while with just 8 career runs might just have more to come. Recent thirds – Highbank and Ramazan – are also interesting with the later sure to have come on for his return run at York and Godolphin’s Highbank is yet to finish out of the top three from 6 runs.
Britannia Stakes Trends
- 18/20 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
- 16/20 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
- 16/20 – Placed last time out
- 14/20 – Failed to win their previous race
- 14/20 – Carried 8-13 or less
- 13/20 – Had never run at Ascot before
- 13/20 – Returned a double-figure price
- 11/20 – Unplaced favourites
- 8/20 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
- 7/20 – Had only won over 7f previously
- 4/20 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
- 3/20 – Ran at Haydock last time out
- 3/20 – Winning favourites
- 3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
- 13 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure stall (2 of the last 3 winners from stall 19)
5.35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f ITV4
60% of the last 20 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out, plus it’s not been a bad race for the favourites with 35% of the last 20 winning. It’s also another race the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard have won 4 times in the last 20 and in Drumroll they have another big chance. This 3 year-old won at the Curragh at the end of May, but before that was second (1 1/2 lengths) to a certain Paddington, who won Tuesday’s St James’s Palace Stakes, and that form now looks rock solid. With 10 of the last 16 winners also coming from stalls 5-9, this is something to note – Drumroll, Canberra Legend, Waipiro, Bolster and Torito all have this in their favour, with the last-named of most interest after a lovely win at Epsom last time out.
Hampton Court Stakes Trends
- 19/20 – Had not raced at Ascot before
- 17/20 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
- 17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/20 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
- 12/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 11/20 – Had won over 1m2f before
- 8/20 – Unplaced favourites
- 7/20 – Winning favourites
- 4/20 – Ran at Epsom last time out
- 4/20 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
- 4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
- No winner from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
- 13 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
- 10 of the last 16 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)
6.10 – Buckingham Palace Handicap (3yo+) 7f ITV4
The horse from stall 29 has done well in this, so the big-priced Toimy Son might be worth a very small saver. 88% of the last 8 winners carried 9-4 or less and were rated between 92-98, plus had run at Ascot before and raced in the last 6 weeks. A double-figure draw is also something to look for and we are yet to see a winning favourite (8 runs).
Taking these into account, Barador is interesting having run a fair 6th here at Ascot last time out – beaten just 5 lengths – but fluffed the start that day so did well to finish where he did. The other to note is Ropey Guest despite being drawn 9. This 6 year-old was 2nd in the race last year from stall 6 and is only 3lbs higher this time.
The final one is Rhoscolyn as this horse is dropping to a fair mark (93) having been rated in the 100’s only last October. He was also third in this race last year but returns on a 10lbs lower mark.
Buckingham Palace Handicap Trends
- 8/8 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
- 8/8 – Unplaced favourites
- 7/8 – Had run at Ascot before
- 7/8 – Had won over at least 6f before
- 7/8 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
- 7/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
- 7/8 – Rated between 92-98
- 6/8 – Had 5+ wins before
- 6/8 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
- 4/8 – Bred in Ireland
- 4/8 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 2/8 – Came from stall 29
- 2/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
- 0/8 – Winning favourites
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New customer offer only. A qualifying bet is a real money sports bet of at least £10 win or £0 each way at minimum fractional odds of evens (2.0 in decimal odds). We’ll credit your account with 1 x 10 free bet upon settlement of qualifying bet. Promotion runs from 25/02/2022 until 31/06/2022. If this promotion is withdrawn it will not impact any qualifying bet you have placed during promotional period
New customer offer only. A qualifying bet is a real money sports bet of at least £10 win or £0 each way at minimum fractional odds of evens (2.0 in decimal odds). We’ll credit your account with 1 x 10 free bet upon settlement of qualifying bet. Promotion runs from 25/02/2022 until 31/06/2022. If this promotion is withdrawn it will not impact any qualifying bet you have placed during promotional period |
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