Use our 2023 Epsom Oaks trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of today’s race. Including 90% of the last 21 winners placed 1st or 2nd last time out, while 33% of favourites since 2002 have landed the big English Classic horse race.
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Epsom Oaks Trends to Help You Find The 2023 Winner
The fourth English Classic was first run in 1779 – the year before the Epsom Derby – so it’s no shocker many trends have built up over the years.
Last year we and epic tussle between Emily Upjohn and the eventual winner Tuesday up the Epsom straight – with the pair pulling clear of the rest. The win provided Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien with is tenth Epsom Oaks win and his third on the bounce after taking the third English Classic with Love in 2020 and Snowfall in 2021.
Another yard that has dominated the Epsom Oaks in recent years is John Gosden – he’s won 4 of the last 9 renewals too and coupled with O’Brien they’ve won ALL of the last 9 runnings between them.
They are both back for more in 2023 too, with O’Brien having the likely Epsom Derby favourite in Savethelastdance, while Gosden will pin his hopes on the Frankie Dettori-ridden Soul Sister, who won the Musidora Stakes at York, and also the 4-time winner Running Lion.
What Date & Time Is The 2023 Epsom Oaks?
đź“…Time/Date: 4:30pm (Friday 2nd June 2023)
🏇Racecourse: Epsom
đź’° Purse/Winner: ÂŁ297,728
đź“ş TV: Racing TV / ITV
🎲 Odds: Savethelastdance 5/4 | Soul Sister 9/4 | Running Lion 11/2 | Eternal Hope 12/1
86% Of The Last 21 Oaks Winners Finished 1st Or 2nd Last Time
First up when looking at the Epsom Oaks trends is focus on horses that finished 1st or 2nd in their most recent race. Of course, most will fit the bill here, including the easy Cheshire Oaks winners Savethelastdance and Musidora Stakes victor Soul Sister, but we still might be able to rule out some of the lesser-fancied Oaks runners.
Last Time Out Winners Have Won 57% Of Runnings Since 2002
Following on from the last stat, we’ve seen 57% of the last 21 Oaks winners head here having won last time out. Again, the main players in the betting will tick this stat – with the top three in the market all heading to Epsom with a ‘1’ next to their names.
The Average Winning SP In The Last 21 Years Is 10.5/1
In 2015 we saw the 50/1 shot Qualify win the Epsom Oaks and in 2013 Talent was successful, but over the last 21 runnings the average winning SP has been just over 10/1 – with the last 7 winners returning 8/1 or shorter.
RELATED: 2023 Epsom Derby Trends: Key Stats To Find The Big Classic Winner
70% Of The Last 10 Winners Came From Stalls 5 or lower
We had seen 13 of the last 21 Epsom Oaks winners hail from stalls 5 or higher, however this draw stat seems to be taking a turn in the other direction of late.
In the last 10 runnings (since 2013), we’ve seen 70% of winners come from stalls 5 or lower – with Tuesday last season winning from the 1 berth. In fact, 4 of the last 5 winners also came from stalls 5 or lower, while 9 of the last 10 winners hailed from stalls 9 or lower.
We’ll know the draw on Wednesday 31st May.
17 of the last 21 Horses From Stall 1 Unplaced
Yes, last year we saw Tuesday win on Friday from stall 1, but it’s still worth pointing out that 81% of the last 21 horses from the inside berth unplaced.
Horse From Stall 2 Placed In 33% Of The Last 21 Renewals
In contrast, the horses from stall 2 have done well over the years – hitting the money in 33% of the last 21 runnings of the Epsom Oaks – with Qualify winning from draw 2 in 2015 at a stonking 50/1 for trainer Aidan O’Brien.
Irish Trained Horses Have Won 38% Since 2002
Despite being run in England, the Epsom Oaks is a race that the Irish have farmed in recent years – with only trainer John Gosden flying the flag for the UK handlers really (more on that below).
The Irish (Aidan O’Brien) have won the last three runnings and 6 of the last 8.
RELATED: Which Horse will Frankie Dettori ride in the 2023 Derby?
What Is The Epsom Oaks Favourites Record Like?
Since 2002, we’ve seen 6 winning Epsom Oaks favourites win (29%), which is not too bad a record, but it’s worth pointing out that 7 of the last 16 market leaders were unplaced too – suggesting they either win or are placed.
This year’s Epsom Oaks favourite is set to be the Aidan O’Brien-trained Savethelastdance.
Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden Have Dominated
The Ralph Beckett yard have Epsom Oaks wins to their name in 2008 and 2013, but the more recent runnings have been dominated by trainers Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden.
The pair have remarkably won ALL of the last 9 renewals of the Epsom Oaks – with O’Brien winning 6 and Gosden 3.
In total, Aidan O’Brien has won the Epsom Oaks 10 times, with the first of those Shahtoush in 1998 and his most recent last year with Tuesday.
John Gosden has landed the famous race three times in total, with Taghrooda in 2014 his first and Anapurna in 2019 his most recent.
Musidora Winners Have Followed Up In The Oaks Seven Times
Finally, it’s also worth pointing out that the Musidora Stakes has produced 7 Oaks winners over the years. Last year’s winner Emily Upjohn was only just touched off too so this year’s winner of the York race – Soul Sister – will be a popular pick to uphold the trend of this Oaks trial race (watch below).
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Epsom Oaks Trends: The Last 21 Runnings
See below our in-depth Epsom Oaks trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these 2023 Epsom stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 21/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
- 18/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 17/21 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
- 13/21 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
- 13/21 – Favourites that were placed
- 12/21 – Won last time out
- 8/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- 8/21 – Irish-trained winners
- 6/21 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
- 6/21 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
- 5/21 – Returned a double-figure price
- 4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 3/21 – Trained by John Gosden
- 2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
- 1/21 – Had run over 1m4f before
- 0/21 – Had run at the course before
- 7 of the last 16 favourites were unplaced
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
- Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 10 times
- Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 9 runnings.
- The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10.5/1
- 7 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season
- Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
- The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 21 runnings
Epsom Derby Recent Winners
- 2022 – Tuesday (13/2)
- 2021 – Snowfall (11/2)
- 2020 – Love (11/10 fav)
- 2019 – Anapurna (8/1)
- 2018 – Forever Together (7/1)
- 2017 – Enable (6/1)
- 2016 – Minding (10/11 fav)
- 2015 – Qualify (50/1)
- 2014 – Taghrooda (5/1)
- 2013 – Talent (20/1)
Epsom Oaks Runners and Latest Betting Odds
We take a look at the latest 2023 Epsom Oaks odds from BetUK, where you can also get a ÂŁ30 free bet to use on the race.
- Savethelastdance @ 5/6
- Soul Sister @ 5/2
- Running Lion @ 6/1
- Eternal Hope @ 16/1
- Heartache Tonight @ 22/1
- Be Happy @ 33/1
- Red Riding Hood @ 33/1
- Caernarfon @ 40/1
- Maman Joon @ 50/1
- Bright Diamond @ 50/1
- Sea Of Roses @ 50/1
Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request.
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WATCH: Tuesday Winning The 2022 Epsom Oaks
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