See below Andy Newton’s Kempton racing tips for the LIVE racing on Saturday, where the ITV cameras are at the Sunbury-On-Thames track to show three races. You can also sign-up with BetMGM ahead of the horse racing with a £40 free bet (see below).
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Kempton Tips For ITV Racing On Saturday 13th January 2024
As we head into the second horse racing Saturday of 2024 – as long as the weather plays ball – there’s a lot to look forward too.
The ITV Racing cameras will be showing EIGHT races across Wetherby, Warwick and Kempton Park, with the action getting underway at 1:10pm and running till 3:35pm.
On this page Andy Newton is on hand to take you through the three LIVE ITV races from Kempton, that include the super-competitive Lanzarote Hurdle (2:42pm) – a race the Dan Skelton yard won 12 months ago and will be trying to follow-up with Langer Dan and Jay Jay Reilly entered.
At Kempton we also have the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase (2:07pm) and a fascinating race in prospect between the former Arkle Chase winner Edwardstone, last year’s winner Pic D’Orhy and the Joseph O’Brien runner and former Cheltenham Festival winner Banbridge.
You can also keep updated with the latest Kempton going report and weather here. Plus, we’ve also got all the key horse racing trends for the LIVE ITV races this Saturday here.
Kempton Racing Tips On Saturday 13th January 2024
Andy Newton gives you his Kempton tips and 1-2-3 best bets for the three LIVE ITV races.
1:30 Kempton: New Bet-In-Race With Coral Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 3m ITV4
Just the seven runners heading to post here but barring the out-of-form Minella Trump they all have a chance. The Kim Bailey hat-trick-seeker Chianti Classico will be popular after impressing in his first two chase starts at Chepstow and Ascot, plus is only up another pound here.
However, this looks harder than his recent wins and threat Bailey runners are a shade out-of-form at the moment, while we’ve also seen 8 of the last 11 winners aged 8 or 9, so this 7 year-old has this Kempton trend to overcome.
Dan Skelton Has A 24% Strike-Rate With His Chasers At Kempton
The only three in the race that tick the age trend are FLEGMATIK (9), Latitude (8) and Gustavian (9). That trio all come here off the back of decent top-three runs last time too, but the Skelton-trained CD winner Flegmatik is the one of most interest.
This 9 year-old has a decent overall record at Kempton, with two wins and four top three finishes over the years. Yes, he’s not won a race since February 2022, but that also came at the Sunbury-On-Thames track when bolting up by 8 lengths.
A recent close third at Ascot, on what was his third run this season, will have him spot-on and the useful Tristan Durrell is also booked to take off 3lbs. The final plus is the Skelton yard having a solid 24% strike-rate at the track with their chasers.
Of the rest, the former Hennessy Gold Cup winner De Rasher Counter could defy his age (12) after showing he’s still in love with the game with a 2-length second to Good Boy Bobby in November at Sandown. He’s still with the Emma Lavelle yard that boast a tasty 26% strike-rate with their chasers here.
Gustavian, who ran well (2nd) at Aintree last month, makes up the top three for the Honeyball team that won this race in 2018.
Kempton Racing Tips
- FLEGMATIK
- De Rasher Counter
- Gustavian
Bet On FLEGMATIK With BetMGM here
2:05 Kempton: Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4½f ITV4
Quality over quantity here for the Silviniaco Conti Chase with only five runners but some well-known faces still make this a nice renewal.
Full marks to the Joseph O’Brien camp for sending over their former Cheltenham Festival winner Banbridge who makes his seasonal reappearance here and is yet to finish out of the top three (3 wins) from five runs over fences. He was last seen winning the G1 Manifesto Novices Chase at the Aintree Grand National Meeting and at just 8 has plenty of scope for more.
We’ve also got the past Arkle Chase winner Edwardstone in the race and being the top-raced in the field is hard to ignore. However, at the age of 10 now you feel there is a slight decline in his form and that’s backed up with no wins from his last five now. With his last success coming in the 2022 Tingle Creek Chase.
Janidil could also come over from Ireland but, for me, is a horse that doesn’t win enough of late, while Notlongtillmay was a fine second to Stage Star in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November to give him a squeak. But that form has taken a knock since with the winner bombing out next time at Prestbury Park.
Last Year’s Champ Back For More
So, this leaves us with last year’s winner – PIC D’ORHY. This Paul Nicholls runner is the second top-rated in the field, just 2lbs behind Edwardstone, and with eight wins from his 16 chase starts certainly knows how to get his head in front.
He impressed to win the Marsh Chase at Aintree last April and returned to take the 1965 Chase at Ascot, albeit with his chance made easier with the Shishkin antics at the start. This 9 year-old is also a two-time course winner and was super-impressive when bolting up by 16-lengths in this event 12 months ago (watch below).
Yes, this looks a harder renewal, but he’s taken the defend his title and give trainer Paul Nicholls his fourth success in the race since 2020.
Kempton Racing Tips
- PIC D’ORHY
- Banbridge
- Edwardstone
Bet On PIC D’ORHY With BetMGM here
2:40 Kempton: Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4
With 19 intended runners the 2024 Lanzarote Hurdle will be a ‘hot’ renewal. With 19 of the last 22 winners aged 7 or younger then this is a good stat to help whittle down the runners – with Up For Parol, Good Luck Charm, Quinta Do Mar, Wonderwall, Aucunrisque, Jay Jay Reilly and Langer Dan all aged 8 or older.
This leaves us with 12 runners.
Next up is to look at horses with exactly two past wins over hurdles as 77% of the last 22 ticked this stat. And actually, there are only two that fit the bill. Both are nice prices and both are also trained by Gary Moore, who has a fine record in the race (3 wins) – HERMINO AA and TEDDY BLUE.
Hermino AA was last seen running third to a fair sort in White Rhino at Cheltenham in December and with that run over 3m we know he’ll stay further than this 2m5f trip. He’s also run just five times over hurdles (2 wins) and is yet to finish out of the first three, so if building on that last run off the same mark could go well at a fair price.
The other Moore runner, Teddy Blue has a lot more to prove after some poor runs of late. However, the first-time cheekpieces are on here and has also been dropped another 2lbs – both factors that could spark him back to life. The longer trip is also an unknown, but connections must feel he’s worth a crack over it.
Henderson Has Won Three Of The Last 11 Lanzarote Hurdles
Of the rest, it’s also a race the Nicky Henderson yard does well in – having won three of the last 11 – plus it’s not been a bad race for the favourites either. We’ve had five winning market leaders in the last 22 runnings (23%) and 13 of the last 22 winners also came from the top three in the betting.
With all this in mind, the Henderson-trained IMPOSE TOI is also very much respected. This JP McManus runner was just a neck second in the Betfair Trophy Hurdle at Ascot over Christmas (watch below) and has now been first of second in all his six starts over hurdles. He’s also up in trip here but has won over 2m 5 1/2f in the past so that’s not a worry. Henderson also runs King Alexander.
Kempton Racing Tips
- HERMINO AA (e/w)
- Impose Toi
- Teddy Blue
Bet On HERMINO AA With BetMGM here
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