Whizz through our 2023 Cheltenham Festival trends on day two to help whittle the fields down. You can use the key Cheltenham stats to find the best profile of horses based on past winners. Cheltenham trends often repeat themselves – so, this is a superb way to find winners on day two!
Best Cheltenham Sign Up Offers Day 2
Cheltenham Festival Trends on Day Two: Wednesday 15th March 2023
Onto day two at the Cheltenham Festival folks and another jam-packed day with seven more quality races to look forward too.
We get going with the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at 1:30pm, where the Willie Mullins Cheltenham runner – Impaire Et Passe – will be a popular pick.
Next up is the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2:10) and all eyes will be on Gerri Colombe from the Gordon Elliott camp as he looks to keep his unbeaten record intact. The competitive Coral Cup (2:50) is the third race on day two – a race with many chances and last year we had a 50/1 winner in the race.
It’s the main race of the day next – the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3:30) – and we are set for a ‘must-see’ contest. Last year’s winner Energumene will be hoping to defend his crown, but will face a stern test from Edwardstone, who took the Arkle Chase last season. 7 of the last 12 Arkle winners have followed up in this race the next season. Lob in Editeur Du Gite too and it’s a great three-way clash.
The Cross Country Chase (4:10) is not everyone’s cup of tea but we get a chance to see last year’s Grand National third Delta Work back to try and win the race again. Then we end with the Grand Annual (4:50) and the Champion Bumper (5:30) – a race Willie Mullins has won 12 times.
Other Cheltenham Festival Day Two Tips and Previews:
- Ruby Walsh Cheltenham Festival Tips On Day Two: Ex-Jockey Gives His Best Bets On Wednesday
- Cheltenham Day Two Tips: 1-2-3 Cheltenham Festival Best Bets On Wednesday 15th March 2023
- Templegate Cheltenham Tips Day 2: The Sun Racing Tipster Gives His Best Festival Bets On Wednesday
- Cheltenham Festival Placepot Tips For Day Two: Tote Placepot Best Bets On Weds 15th March 2023
- 2023 Champion Chase Trends: Edwardstone or Energumene Based On The Cheltenham Stats?
- Cheltenham Lucky 15 Tips On Day Two: Four Festival Fancies For Wednesday 15th March 2023
- JP McManus Cheltenham Festival Runners: 2023 Main Entries For The Meeting’s Top Owner
- How To Watch The Last Two Cheltenham Races on Wednesday FREE: Cheltenham Festival Live Streaming
1.30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV
2022 Winner: SIR GERHARD (8/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle Trends
POSITIVES
- 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 6 of the last 9 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
- 12 of the last 14 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
- 18 of the last 22 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
- 22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
- 27 of the last 28 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- The Irish have won 13 of the last 20 (8 of last 9)
- Horses rated 150+ do well
- 11 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
- 23 of the last 28 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
- 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 16 of the last 24 had won a graded race before
- Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
- Respect Willie Mullins – 5 winners in last 15 years
- Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5
- 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6
- In the last 11 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 21 of the 33 top 3 places
- 22 of the last 24 were NH bred
NEGATIVES
- Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
- Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
- Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 57 (since 1988) (but was last year’s winner Sir Gerhard)
- Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 17 years)
- Only two of the last 36 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- The last 19 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
2.10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV
2022 Winner: L’HOMME PRESSE (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Charlie Deutsch
UK/Irish: UK-trained
2023 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- 5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Mighty Potter won this year’ race)
- The last 21 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
- 15 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
- 25 of the last 28 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
- Respect 7 year-olds – won 13 of the last 16 (18 of last 23)
- 11 of the last 17 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 13 winners were beaten on their chase debut
- 8 of the last 15 winners had won a bumper before
- 8 of the last 16 favourites won
- The last 8 winners were rated 150+
- 10 of the last 11 winners returned single-figures in the betting
- 20 of the last 22 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
- Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
- 6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (54 of the last 56 winners had)
- 12 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
- The last 8 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
- Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 26
- 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
- 7 of the last 14 winners were trained in Ireland
- Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 19 between them)
- 25 of the last 30 were novice hurdling last season
NEGATIVES
- No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
- Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
- Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
- Just 2 of the last 23 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
- No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
- French bred horses are 1-from-39 (last 16 years, but last year’s winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
- Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
- Horses in headgear have a poor record
- The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 11 years
- Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 23 winners)
2.40 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV
2022 Winner: COMMANDER OF FLEET (50/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Shane Fitzgerald
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Coral Cup Trends
POSITIVES
- 12 of the last 18 were 2nd season hurdlers
- 18 of the last 22 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
- 10 of the last 13 winners had run at the Festival before (8 had top 4 finish)
- 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
- 9 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 140’s
- 14 of the last 23 winners aged 6 or 7
- 9 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- 12 of the last 17 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
- 21 of the last 28 winners won earlier that season
- Respect JP McManus-owned runners
- Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 13 years)
- 10 of the last 21 winners were French-Bred
- Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 14 winners)
- 15 of the last 18 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
- Trainer Gordon Elliott is 3 from 12
- 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
- The last 4 winners wore headgear
- 15 of the last 29 won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 14)
NEGATIVES
- Just one winning favourite in the last 19 years (2020)
- Only 4 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
- Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
- Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 47 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 44 since 2010
- Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
3.30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV
2022 Winner: ENERGUMENE
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Champion Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- 13 of the last 22 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- 4 of the last 10 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 24 of the last 38 had won at the Festival before
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 23 between them
- Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 11
- 28 of the last 36 winners aged between 7-9
- 12 of the last 20 winners were second season chasers
- 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
- 20 of the last 24 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 16 of the last 23 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
- 7 of the last 12 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
- Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once
- 14 of the last 21 winners won last time out
- 17 of the last 20 winners had run that calendar year
- 39 of the last 41 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
- 16 of the last 23 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 16 winners were French-bred
NEGATIVES
- Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 39 years
- Just 1 winner in last 18 had run 4+ times that season
- Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
- Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 1 win in the race (Energumene) (1-from-14)
- Just 1 of the last 21 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 13 of the last 17 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
- Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)
- Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
- Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
- Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 48 years
- Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 44 years
4.10 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV
2022 Winner: DELTA WORK (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Cross Country Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- The Irish have won 15 of the last 18 runnings
- Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
- 15 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
- 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top three in the betting
- 9 of the last 18 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
- 14 of the last 18 winners had run on the course before
- Respect jockeys Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
- 14 or the last 18 winners were aged 10 or younger
- 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or 9
- 10 of the last 18 winners had run in the NH Chase before
- 5 of the last 8 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
- The last 7 winners wore headgear
- 8 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie
- Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 12 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
- 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
NEGATIVES
- Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but last year’s winner (Delta Work) was running for the first time over the X-Country course
- Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 16
- Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
- Just 3 of the last 13 winners won their last race
- Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 100, but the 2020 winner was 6
4.50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV
2022 Winner: GLOBAL CITIZEN
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Kielan Woods
UK/Irish: UK-trained
2023 Grand Annual Chase Trends
POSITIVES
- 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
- 16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Festival before
- 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous renewal
- Irish have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
- 9 of the last 13 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 10 of the last 14 winners novices or second season chasers
- 11 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
- 13 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or older
- Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
- Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 19
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 11 placed)
- 5 of the last 8 winners won after a 91+ day break
- 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-147
- 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 138-150
- 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more in weight
- 11 of the last 12 winners were rated at least 138
- 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
- Novices have won 6 of the last 14 runnings
- 20 of the last 23 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
NEGATIVES
- Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 27 runnings, but last year’s winner was a 10 year-old
- Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
- Last time out winners are just 1 from last 16
- Only 2 of the last 18 winners were favourites
- Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
- Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 34 since 2005
- Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
5.30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
2022 Winner: FACILE VEGA (15/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2023 Champion Bumper Trends
POSITIVES
- 28 of the last 30 had won last time out (all of last 19)
- 23 of the last 30 winners trained in Ireland
- Respect Irish-trained runners (23 from 39)
- 21 of the last 30 came from the top 6 in the betting
- 23 of the last 30 were Irish-bred
- 19 of the last 21 had their debut runs in Ireland
- 12 of the last 20 had been beaten in a race before
- 6 of the last 13 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
- 11 of the last 22 winners were second season horses
- 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 19 of the last 30 winners aged 5 years-old
- Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
- The Irish lead the British 24-7 in the race history
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
- 11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- Mares are 3-19 in the last 18 runnings
- 6 of the last 7 winners had run in February
- 3 of the last 4 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud
NEGATIVES
- Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
- Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
- 4 year-olds are 1 from 65 since 2000 (Cue Card)
- Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
- Just 2 of the last 12 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
- Only 4 of the last 12 winners were won by UK-based trainers
Related Horse Racing Content:
- Best Horse Racing Free Bets Offers at UK Sportsbooks – Top Horse Racing Bonuses for 2023
- Top Free Horse Racing Tips & Advice for UK Betting Today
- Free Horse Racing Lucky 15 Tips for Today – Best Lucky 15 Bet Today
- Today’s Racecards – View Horse Racing Cards Today
- Horse Racing Results Today – See All Recent Race Results & Winners
- The Best Cheltenham Betting Sites for 2023
- Cheltenham Results Past & Present – See All Cheltenham Festival Results 2023
- The Best Grand National Betting Sites for 2023
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
