Which Horse Will Win The 2023 Grand National Based On The Key Trends? Grand National Tips

Which horse will win the Grand National? Is the million-dollar question doing the rounds this weekend as horse racing fans and ‘once-a-year’ punters gear-up for the latest renewal of the world-famous horse race on Saturday.

As always, we’ll see 40 Grand National runners heading to post and EVERY horse will have someone, somewhere placing a wager on them.

So, Which Horse Will Win The 2023 Grand National?

If you’re having a bet on Saturday’s 2023 Grand National, then over the next 24 hours you’ll likely to be bombarded with tips and views from anyone from ex-jockeys like Ruby Walsh and racing pundits like Matt Chapman.

However, you could also look at the key Grand National trends (below) and try and put history on your side. These Aintree stats will tell us the top profile of horses to look for and the ones that have the best chance of winning the 2023 Grand National.

Grand National Trends To Note

• Age: Horses Aged Between 8-11 Have The Best Recent Records

We saw a 7 year-old win the Grand National last year (Noble Yeats), but that was the first time a horse of that age has won since 1940. So, still a significant trend that means we can rule out all the 7 year-olds (six of them) – A Wave Of The Sea, Cape Gentleman, Capodanno, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Mr Incredible and Velvet Elvis.

Horses aged between 8-11 have won 15 of the last 16 runnings.

• Weight: Horses With 11st 6lbs Or More Have Struggled

Weight stops trains – so they say – and that seemingly applies to horses in the Grand National too. Since 1978, 134 horses have tried to win with more than 11st 5lbs and only two horses have been successful – Many Clouds (2015) and Neptune Collonges (2012).

Therefore, we can also put a line through those with the big weights – Any Second Now, Noble Yeats, Galvin and Fury Road.

• Cheltenham Form: Recent Cheltenham Festival Winners Don’t Have A Great Record

Since 1961, only three horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season have won the Grand National. If this trend continues, then Gaillard Du Mesnil, Corach Rambler and Delta Work can be overlooked having all won at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.

• Fitness: Look For Horses That Ran Within The Last 40 Days

The Grand National trends also tell us that having had a recent run is another plus. 93% of the last 31 winners had raced in the last 55 days, while 77% had run within the last 34 days.

It’s always best to give this stat a bit of give either side as the National date does vary from year-to-year slightly. With that in mind, really we are really looking for horses that ran in the last 40 days.

You can find this info out by looking for the little number next to the horse’s name on the race card.

Horses like The Big Dog, Capodanno, Carefully Selected, Coko Beach, Darasso, Le Milos, Cape Gentleman, Diol Ker, Vanillier, Enjoy D’Allen, Recite A Prayer, Eva’s Oskar, Our Power and Fortescue are all runners that last raced 40+ races ago.

Which Horses Fit The Most Grand National Trends?

Main Grand National Trends Tips:

• Ain’t That A Shame @ 8/1
• Longhouse Poet @ 16/1
• Lifetime Ambition @ 33/1

Grand National Trends Outsiders:

• Gabbys Cross @ 66/1
• The Big Breakaway @ 50/1
• Roi Mage @ 28/1

Note: Odds are subject to change

Grand National Trends

• 30/31 – Officially rated 137 or higher
• 29/31 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
• 27/31 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
• 27/31 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
• 25/31 – Returned a double-figure price
• 24/31 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
• 24/31 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
• 24/31 – Aged 9 or older
• 23/31 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
• 19/31 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
• 19/31 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
• 20/31 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
• 18/31 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
• 17/31 – Placed favourites
• 17/31 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
• 15/31 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
• 12/31 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
• 12/31 – Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 16 years)
• 7/31 – Ran in a previous Grand National
• 7/31 – Won last time out
• 6/31 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
• . 3/31 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
• 2/31 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
• 1/31 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

• Since 1978, 134 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 18 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
• Only 3 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
• The just one 7 year-old or younger to win since back in 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
• 13 of the last 25 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
• No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
• 3 of the last 13 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
• 10 of the last 19 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
• 5 of the last 20 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
• Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 27 renewals (but 4 in the last 7 years)
• Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 36 years (80 have attempted)
• 23 of the last 25 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
• Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

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