Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the jumps meetings at Newbury and Leicester for his three stats-based picks on Tuesday, January 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CATTERICK 12.50
INNISFREE LAD (system – David Dennis, veterans’ handicap chases, recent run)
David Dennis does well in veteran’s handicap chases, scoring with nine of his 31 such runners for a profit of £26.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had the benefit of a recent run (within the last 28 days) were seven from 15 for a profit of £32.83. INNISFREE LAD contributed two wins (9-2 and 7-2) from three attempts and will appreciate the return to this grade after his modest third in all-aged company at Ludlow last time.
LINGFIELD 1.10
NOT TOO REAL BAD (systems – Mick Appleby/Jason Hart combination, 5f)
Jason Hart has a fine record when riding in sprints and he does especially well for Mick Appleby over the minimum trip of 5f, scoring on five of his 14 such mounts for a profit of £19.00 to the usual £1 stake. NOT TOO REAL BAD also has first-time blinkers today, another positive statistical angle for the yard, and she can bounce back from a sixth-place finish at Newcastle on her latest outing.
CATTERICK 1.50
INVICTUS ALLEN (system – Christian Williams long travellers)
Christian Williams has a good record with horses travelling more than 250 miles from his Welsh base, scoring with 39 of the 146 qualifiers since the spring of 2016 for a profit of £23.42 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who started as favourite were 22 from 55 for a profit of £15.92 and INVICTUS ALLEN is likely to be popular in the betting for this 3m1f handicap chase and is taken to break his duck.
CHEPSTOW 2.35
GLORIOUS LION (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers)
Harry Derham has a fantastic record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, scoring with 15 of the 35 qualifiers fir a profit of £60.16 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 6.94, A/E = 2.16). GLORIOUS LION showed ability on the Flat for James Ferguson despite failing to register a win from five starts and can make a successful hurdles debut in the first-time tongue-tie.
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