Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 50-1 Sedgefield winner YUKON and 9-4 Navan scorer MARISTELLA on Wednesday and has four more stats-based selections on Thursday, October 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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WARWICK 1.05
DANCE AT NIGHT (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, October, conditional jockeys)
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record in the month of October, with his hurdlers and chasers who are ridden by a jockey claiming at least 3lb doing especially well. In the past ten years, 31 of the 140 qualifiers have won (22.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £46.68 to the usual £1 stake (expected winners = 20.36). DANCE AT NIGHT disappointed on his hurdles debut at Uttoxeter last time but raced freely and the first-time hood he wears today might help him to settle better.
AYR 1.50
BOY DOUGLAS (system – New Bay 2yos, 7f+, turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire New Bay have a 29 from 123 record when racing over 7f or further on turf and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £37.84 (expected winners = 16.69). BOY DOUGLAS took a step forward from his debut effort when a 100-1 fourth of ten over course and distance last time and the easy ground should hold no fears on breeding.
WARWICK 4.00
UNE DE LA SANIERE (system – Fergal O’Brien, amateur or conditional jockey races, October)
Fergal O’Brien tends to hit the ground running at the beginning of a new jumps season, especially in races confined to amateur or conditional riders. Since the start of 2016, eight of the 28 qualifiers have won (28.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £22.54. UNE DE LA SENIERE, beaten by a head when runner-up over trip and track last month, is taken to go one better.
THURLES 4.20
SATURN FIVE (system – Joseph O’Brien, handicap debut, Flat, Class A-D)
Joseph O’Brien does well with his handicap debutants on the Flat, especially those running in Class D or better company on turf. He’s scored with 38 of the 200 qualifiers for a profit of £69.16 and SATURN FIVE, a maiden winner at Punchestown last time, can follow up.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 6 October 2022
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers must sign up on mobile.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
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