Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew signs off before a week of annual leave with four stats-based picks on Saturday, May 20th (next column 28th May). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 1.30
LA GUARDIA (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a soldi record with newcomers, regardless of age or who trains them. They’ve won with 35 of the 148 qualifiers (23.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £43.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. LA GUARDIA, a daughter of New Bay, cost connections 56,000 euros and could be worth chancing in this 6f fillies’ novice stakes.
THIRSK 4.52
ANDROMEDAS KINGDOM (system – Mick Appleby, stable switchers)
Mick Appleby has a fantastic record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 95 of the 536 qualifiers (17.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £318.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. Latest qualifier Bedford Flyer finished third at 25-1 in the opener at York on Thursday and perhaps ANDROMEDAS KINGDOM can go two places better.
NEWMARKET 5.00
ISLE OF LISMORE (system – small-field preference)
Size matters where Robert Cowell’s ISLE OF LISMORE is concerned – his record in fields of nine or fewer runners reads 14731139511 (5-11) for a profit of £14.33 to the usual £1 stake, compared to form figures in double-digit line-ups of 687089502474 (0-12). He faces just seven rivals today and can bounce back to winning ways after his last-time-out Ascot fourth of 11.
DONCASTER 6.50
DARK KESTREL (system – Gosden yard, first run after a wind operation)
It’s rare for John and Thady Gosden to give one of their inmates a wind operation but they have a fantastic record with those who undergo the procedure, scoring with seven of the 13 qualifiers for a profit of £14.06 to a £1 level stake at SP. The yard’s three-year-old wind op recipients recorded form figures of 151841111 (6-9), suggesting that DARK KESTREL could improve on what he’s shown in two previous outings.
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