Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Lingfield and Chelmsford for three stats-based selections on Saturday, December 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LINGFIELD 1.15
THE DEFIANT (system – class barrier, going preference)
THE DEFIANT has won just two of his 24 starts on turf (-£16.50 to a £1 level stake at SP) but has a five from 17 record on the all-weather (+£10.88). He also struggles when racing above Class 5 level and if we only consider his all-weather runs in that grade or lower his record becomes 419227671111421 (5-14), improving to 111421 (4-6) on Polytrack only, with the second place by a short head when 16-1. He wasn’t disgraced against the draw/pace bias when beaten in Class 4 company here last time and everything looks right for a big run today.
CHELMSFORD 2.40
GOT NO DOLLARS (system – Showcasing-Dansili cross, all-weather)
Showcasing progeny, crossed with Dansili, are 16 from 72 (22.2% strike-rate) on the all-weather for a profit of £24.14. On Polytrack only, those figures improve to 14 from 51 (27.5%) for a profit of £39.89. GOT NO DOLLARS, who represents bang-in-form Stuart Williams, was poorly drawn in stall 12 (first three drawn 6, 5 and 4 of 13) when a 25-1 fourth at Kempton last month and looks the obvious each-way play against the odds-on favourite Lord Paramount.
CHELMSFORD 4.45
BASS STRAIT (system – Cityscape, Chelmsford handicaps, 7f+)
Progeny of the sire Cityscape have a good record in handicaps at Chelmsford and backing all the qualifiers in handicaps of 7f or further would have found nine winners from 54 runners for a profit of £83.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. BASS STRAIT is an 11-race maiden but finished a creditable fourth at Lingfield on her recent debut for Sheena West and could improve for the switch to Chelmsford for the first time.
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