Use our Paddy Power Gold Cup trends for Saturday’s Cheltenham race. It’s the first of many big contests at Prestbury Park ahead of the new season and by using our key trends you can find the best profiles of past winners and put history on your side.
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Paddy Power Gold Cup (Cheltenham, Sat 18th Nov 2023)
Run at the home of jumps race – Cheltenham – over a trip of 2m4f, the Paddy Power Gold Cup is a Premier Handicap race that carries just over £90k to the winner.
12 months ago, we saw the Jamie Snowden-trained GA Law walk away with the top prize (watch below) – in what was the first win for the yard in the race.
This year’s contest looks as competitive as ever, with the Paul Nicholls-trained Stage Star currently heading the betting with the best UK horse racing betting sites. The Ditcheat handler looks to add to his wins in 2012 (Al Ferof) and 2014 (Caid Du Berlais).
There are many Paddy Power Gold Cup trends to take into the 2023 renewal too, including 95% of the last 21 winners having raced at Cheltenham in the past. While being a handicap 71% of the last 21 winners carried 11st or less.
You can see below the key Cheltenham stats for the big race and which of the main players have the most going for them.
When Is The Paddy Power Gold Cup 2023?
📅Date: Saturday 18th November 2023
🕙Time: 2:20pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham (2m4f)
💰 Winner: £90,032
📺 TV: ITV4 / Racing TV (see the full race times and schedule here)
Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends For 2023
- 20/21 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
- 20/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences
- 20/21 – Won by a UK-based trainer
- 17/21 – Priced 14/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/21 – Carried 11st or less in weight
- 15/21 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 14/21 – Won at Cheltenham previously
- 13/21 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 13/21 – Won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
- 11/21 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
- 10/21 – Favourites placed
- 10/21 – Came from the first 3 in the betting
- 9/21 – Aged 7 years-old
- 8/21 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
- 5/21 – Won last time out
- 5/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 4/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable
- 3/21 – Favourites
- 3/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
- 3/21 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
- 2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
- 1/21 – Irish-trained winners
- The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 11 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 45 runners
- The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1
Past Cheltenham Experience Is A Must
With a massive 95% of the last 21 Paddy Power Gold Cup winners having raced at Cheltenham before, then past track form is simply a ‘must-have’.
However, the bad news here is that you’ll find that the bulk of the runners have tasted the Prestbury Park track before. These include the likely favourite Stage Star, who won the Turners’ Novices’ Chase here last March (watch below).
We can also whittle this track stat down a bit more though as 67% of the last 21 winners had actually won at race at Cheltenham before.
Again, several tick this box, but a few that don’t are Notlongtillmay, Fugitif, Angels Breath and Final Orders.
Do The Irish Have a Good Paddy Power Gold Cup Record?
The quick answer to this is – NO. The last Irish-trained winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup was Tranquil Sea in 2009 and in the last 21 runnings the winner has been from a UK-based yard.
This year, Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders and Authorized Art, for trainer Willie Mullins, are the Irish runners.
Look For Horses With 11st Or Less In Weight
Being a handicap, then weight carried is worth noting too. Over the last 21 years, we’ve seen 71% of the last 21 winners carry 11st or less. Including five of the last six winners and last year’s hero GA Law, who had 11st on his back.
This would be a negative for the likes of Stage Star, The Real Whacker, Notlongtillmay and Fugitif. But a plus for Unexpected Party, Angels Breath and Il Ridoto.
At the other end of the weight spectrum, the last horse to win with 12st+ was back in 1965, a horse called Dunkirk. Therefore, this is a big trend The Real Whacker, who has 12st, will need to overcome. While since 1960 only three horses have won with 12st or more.
A Top Four Finish Last Time Out In A Plus
Next up is to look for a top four finish as 15 of the last 21 winners ticked this Paddy Power Gold Cup trend.
This would actually be another stat against Stage Star, who was last seen running fifth in the Aintree Manifesto Novices’ Chase.
Fugitif and Il Ridoto are others that would need to overcome this stat.
Does The Paddy Power Gold Cup Favourite
Being a competitive handicap most seasons, then it’s no shock really that we’ve only seen three winning favourites in the last 21 years – meaning just 14% return.
We’ve also not seen a winning favourite in the last 10 years, with the last also being the last Irish-trained winner Tranquil Sea in 2009, when he returned as the 11/2 market leader.
It’s a better strike-rate with market leaders placed – with 10 of the last 21 jollies hitting the frame. While the overall winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1.
Which suggests not looking too far away from the favourite for the winner – the biggest-priced winner in the last 10 years was Splash Of Ginge (2017). With 9 of the last 10 winners returning 14/1 or shorter.
This year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup favourite looks set to be Stage Star, Notlongtillmay or Unexpected Party, who are both close at the head of the market.
Avoid Horses Aged In Double-Figures
With the last winning horse aged in double-figures in 1975 this is a very safe Paddy Power Gold Cup stat to have in your corner.
The horse in question was the Maurice Camancho-trained Clear Cut, who won as an 11 year-old.
The good news here though is that ALL of the 2023 Paddy Power runners are aged 9 or younger.
7 Year-olds Have The Best Paddy Power Gold Cup Record
24 of the last 15 winners were aged between 6-9 years-old, so any runner in this bracket should be noted.
However, it’s the 7 year-olds that have the best recent record from that range, with 43% winning in the last 21 renewals.
Stage Star, Notlongtillmay and The Real Whacker are three of the fancied 7 year-olds in the race in 2023.
Who Are The Best Paddy Power Gold Cup Trainers?
With eleven wins between them since 2002, trainers Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill and the Pipe team always have to be respected.
From that quartet, Nicholls has Stage Star and Il Ridoto and Twiston-Davies has Torn and Frayed, but no runners for O’Neill or the Pipe’s this year.
Which Horses Tick The Most Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends 2023?
UNEXPECTED PARTY hails from the Dan Skelton yard, seems to tick a lot of boxes. This 8 year-old gets in here with just 10-12 to carry and will come here after seeing off Knappers Hill last time out, who also boosted the form by winning last weekend at Wincanton.
The horse is up only 4lbs for that success and with it also coming off a 175-day break can be expected to have improved a lot for it too.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a prize that’s so far eluded the Skelton camp, but in Unexpected Party they have a live chance of breaking their duck and have sent out three placed horses in the last three years too.
Of the rest, small savers on Torn And Frayed, from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard that do well at this meeting, and Black Gerry and Final Orders.
Black Gerry represents the Gary Moore yard that won this race in 2018 and will head here having won 50% of his 10 chase starts, while the 7 year-old Final Orders, from the shrewd Gavin Cromwell yard, also seems to have a lot going for him.
Sat, 18 Nov 2023 , 14:20 BST • Cheltenham • Paddy Power Gold Cup
Unexpected Party
Paddy Power Gold Cup 2023 Odds
See below the Paddy Power Gold Cup betting with prices from BetMGM and also get a £40 free bet for Cheltenham.
- Stage Star 11/2
- Unexpected Party 11/2
- The Real Whacker 6/1
- Notlongtillmay 13/2
- Angels Breath 7/1
- Easy As That 8/1
- Il Ridoto 9/1
- Fugitif 10/1
- Harper’s Brook 14/1
- Torn And Frayed 16/1
- Final Orders 20/1
- Authorized Art 22/1
- Whistleinthedark 28/1
- Black Gerry 33/1
Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request
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WATCH: GA Law Winning The Paddy Power Gold Cup 2022
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