Our Doncaster racing tips and trends continue on Saturday (16th Sept) with four more LIVE ITV races that include the final English Classic of the season – the Betfred St Leger – a race Frankie Dettori has won on 6 occasions and will be riding in for the last time.
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ITV Racing Tips and Trends For Doncaster (Saturday 16th Sept 2023)
The four-day Doncaster St Leger Festival climaxes on Saturday afternoon, despite there still being racing on Sunday, as it’s St Leger day, which is the oldest of the five English Classic races.
Day three’s LIVE ITV action starts with the Group 2 Champagne Stakes (1:50pm) – a race that the classy Chaldean won 12 months ago before going onto win the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket this season.
The ultra-competitive Portland Handicap (2:25) is next and it’s a race that has been dominated by horses from double-figure stalls in recent years, while last year’s winner Call Me Ginger is back for more.
At 3pm it’s the Park Stakes, with Spycatcher and Audience two of the fancied entries, then it’s the ‘big one’ at 3:35pm – the Betfred St Leger Stakes.
The St Leger has been dominated by the Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden and Godolphin camps in recent times and all three are represented again, plus we’ve also for a Royal runner in Desert Hero and the King looks to add to the Queen’s St Leger win in 1977 with Dunfermline.
Frankie Dettori will also be riding in the St Leger for the last time – he’s won the race 6 times before – and will be trying to make it seven on the John Gosden-trained Arrest.
RELATED: 2023 St Leger Trends: Key Stats To Find Saturday’s Doncaster Classic Winner
Doncaster Horse Racing Tips and Trends for Saturday
1.50 – Champagne Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV
12 months ago, we saw Chaldean win this Group Two and he went onto land the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket this season – therefore, the winner has to be respected.
However, the race cut up a bit with just 5 runners and on form it really only looks between two. Iberian is one of those having shown up well in his opening two races, including a second in the Vintage Stakes last time out at Goodwood.
But the call is to side with Rosallion – a horse that hails from the Hannon yard that have a top record in this race, winning 5 of the last 22. This 2 year-old has impressed in winning both his first two starts and even though this is a step up again, could not have been more impressive when taking a Listed event by 4 lengths the last day at Ascot.
Of the rest, the Aidan O’Brien yard have won this race twice in the past and have the most experienced runner in the field (5 runs) with Mountain Bear.
- 21/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 20/22 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
- 18/22 – Favourites placed
- 18/22 – Had won over 7f before
- 18/22 – Finished third or better last time out
- 16/22 – Won by a Feb or March foal
- 14/22 – Won last time out
- 13/22 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or the Curragh last time out
- 10/22 – Raced 3 or more times that season
- 9/22 – Winning favourites
- 5/22 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
- 3/22 – Winners from stall 1
- Chaldean on the race in 2022
2.25 – Betfred Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV
With 22 runners heading to post, it could be ‘pin time’ here. That said, there are a fair few Doncaster trends to apply to the race that can help us whittle down the runners, while we also have last season’s winner Call Me Ginger back for more off just a 2lb higher mark.
Although, it’s worth pointing out that Chipstead was the first past the past 12 months ago but was demoted to second after causing interference in the closing stages – he returns on an 11lb higher rating though.
Call Me Ginger was drawn 3 last year too and has been handed a similar berth in 4.
That said, the draw trends do suggest higher numbers – with 16 of the last 21 coming from a double-figure stall, including Chipstead 12 months ago.
We’ve also got the 2021 winner Hurricane Ivor in the race and he’s back on a 10lb lower mark. The Irish raider, from the Jessie Harrington yard, is drawn in 15 too so ticks the big draw stat.
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or younger too – so the older runners in the 22-horse race are Aberama Gold, Badri, Call Me Ginger, Dakota Gold, Hurricane Ivor, Intrinsic Bond, King’s Lynn, Live In The Moment and Makanah.
The final big trends is to note the weight as 19 of the last 21 carried 8-12 or more, which would rule out Haymaker, Kimngrace, Live In The Moment and Call Me Ginger.
Of those that are left we’ll take a chance with course winner Tees Spirit, Dream Composer and Annaf, who was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths in the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last week.
- 19/21 – Carried 8-12 or more
- 18/21 – Had run 5 or more times that season
- 17/21 – Won over 6f before
- 16/21 – Came from a double-figure stall
- 16/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 14/21 – Winner rated between 95 and 102
- 14/21 – Run at Doncaster previously
- 14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 13/21 – Won 4 or more times in their career
- 11/21 – Unplaced Favourites
- 10/21 – Placed in their last race
- 9/21 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 9 of last 15 years)
- 7/21 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
- 5/21 – Winning favourites
- 4/21 – Raced at Ripon last time out
- 3/21 – Won last time out
- 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or younger
- Call Me Ginger (20/1 won the race in 2022
- Hurricane Ivor (11/2 fav) won the race in 2021
RELATED: 2023 St Leger Betting: Arrest and Frankie Dettori Well-Fancied For Doncaster Classic
3.00 – Betfred Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV
Just the 6 runners here but most seem to have a squeak.
Sandrine gets a handy 3lbs off Skycatcher and Audience, but this Andrew Balding runner hasn’t won not for over a year and has a bit to prove.
The already mentioned Skycatcher and Audience have big claims, with the last-named the clear top-rated in the field too.
However, a chance is taken on Biggles flying home with Ryan Moore riding. Yes, this 6 year-old has a bit to find on these terms and weights, but the softer ground (as long as it doesn’t dry out much) will be to his liking after running down the field at Ascot last time in the International Stakes.
Before that this Ralph Beckett runner had won well at Newmarket with give in the ground and his recent form with cut reads 1-2-2-1. He’s also been freshened up with 49 days off as his last two runs also came just 14 days apart and that might have been another reason for his below-par effort.
He’s a horse that have fared best when running off small lay-offs.
- 17/20 – Won 3 or more times before
- 17/20 – Run 3 or more times that season
- 17/20 – Won a Group race previously
- 17/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
- 16/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 16/20 – Won over 7f before
- 14/20 – Aged 4 or older
- 14/20 – Placed favourites
- 12/20 – Unplaced in their most recent race
- 10/20 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
- 9/20 – Placed horses from stall 1
- 8/20 – Had run at Doncaster before
- 6/20 – Winning favourites
- 2/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
- 4 Irish-trained winners in the last 14 runnings
3.35 – Betfred St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV
Frankie Dettori will be riding in his final St Leger and despite many thinking he’ll partner Gregory, who he won on at Royal Ascot this season, he’s decided to ride Arrest.
This might be down to the expected softer ground – with his form with give reading well 1-2-1-1. This Frankel colt has also won 4 of his 8 starts and got back to winning ways with an easy success in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last month.
Frankel also sired the 2021 St Leger winner Hurricane Lane.
That was his first try over 1m4f (1m 51/2f) which is a good sign he’ll stay the longer St Leger trip of 1m 6 1/2f.
Gregory was beaten by Continuous last time in the Great Voltigeur Stakes, which might have played a part in Frankie’s pick too. The winner that day also comes from the Aidan O’Brien yard, who has won the Leger 6 times in the past. He’s the top-rated in the field and with Ryan Moore riding has a big chance too.
We can expect the Frankie runner Arrest to be popular in the betting, as he looks to grab the winner in his last ever English Classic ride. He’s already won 2 of the Classics run in England this season (Oaks and 2000 Guineas) and will be hunting a seventh St Leger win too.
We’ve a royal runner too in Desert Hero. The Queen won the St Leger in 1977 with Dunfermline, so the King will be hoping to follow suit. This William Haggas runner has improved to win his last two races at Ascot and Goodwood, but with just 3 runs this season does fall down on the St Leger trend that’s seen 14 of the last 21 winners race 4 or 5 times that term.
Overall, it’s a race you can certainly make a case for the top 5 in the betting, but even though a fairytale Frankie flying dismount is what most will love, the best form in the book sits with Continuous, who looks the best value now the money has come for the Dettori runner.
- 18/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 18/21 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
- 18/21 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
- 17/21 – Placed favourites
- 17/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 16/21 – Had won a Group race before
- 16/21 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
- 14/21 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
- 13/21 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
- 13/21 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
- 13/21 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
- 12/21 – Won last time out
- 12/21 – Officially rated 109 to 115
- 9/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
- 8/21 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
- 5/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- 4/21 – Trained by John Gosden
- 4/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
- 4/21 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (7 wins in total)
- 3/21 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
- 3/21 – Ridden by William Buick
- 2/21 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
- 2/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 2/21 – Winners from stall 1
- Godolphin have won the race 7 times
- Aidan O’Brien has trained 6 winners of the race
- The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 7/1
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