Use Andy Newton’s 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup trends to help you find the winner of Friday’s huge Festival race, where the Willie Mullins-trained Galopin Des Champs currently heads the betting. But how have the favourites fared in recent years and what’s the record like of horses winning back-to-back Gold Cups?
We’ve got all the key Cheltenham stats to guide you through the meeting’s showcase race.
When Is The 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup?
The Cheltenham Gold Cup is staged at the Cheltenham Festival on the final day (Friday)
📅Time/Date: 3:30pm, Friday 15th March 2024
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
💰 Winner: £351,688
📺 TV: RacingTV / ITV
See the full running order and times for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends to Help You Find the Winners
The Cheltenham Festival has 28 races over the four days, but the showcase event each year is always the Gold Cup, run on Friday.
It’s the race all the top jump jockeys and trainers want on their CV’s – so, which horse, stable and rider will be on the hall-of-fame this year?
The good news is there are many decent Cheltenham Gold Cup trends below to help whittle down the 11 runners. Use Andy Newton’s stats to help find the best profile of past winners as this Blue Riband event has a habit of repeating itself.
It’s the Willie Mullins-trained Galopin Des Champs that heads the Gold Cup Cheltenham odds going into the race – having won the prize impressively 12 months ago – but does he tick the main Gold Cup trends again in 2024?
Let’s look at some of the main Cheltenham stats in a big more detail.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends to Help Find The 2024 Winner
See below our in-depth 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these Cheltenham stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
Gold Cup Trends – The Positives
- ✅ 19 of the last 24 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
- ✅ 20 of the last 23 finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
- ✅ 19 of the last 24 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
- ✅ 12 of the last 18 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
- ✅ 23 of the last 24 winners were Grade 1 winners
- ✅ Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
- ✅ 19 of the last 23 had won or placed at the Festival
- ✅ 19 of the last 23 winners hailed from the top 3 in the market
- ✅ 21 of the last 24 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
- ✅ 14 of the last 16 winners ran 3 or less times that term
- ✅ 17 of the last 27 winners were bred in Ireland
- ✅ 17 of the last 23 winners won last time out
- ✅ 11 of the last 21 winners were favourites (52%)
- ✅ 14 of the last 19 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
- ✅ ALL of the last 24 winners were aged 9 or younger
- ✅ 23 of the last 24 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
- ✅ 21 of the last 24 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
- ✅ Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a decent record
- ✅ 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
- ✅ Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
- ✅ Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won the last 5 Gold Cups
Gold Cup Trends – The Negatives
- ❌Non-Grade One winners have a dire record
- ❌No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 74)
- ❌Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
- ❌Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 46
- ❌Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that term
- ❌Horses wearing headgear have a poor recent record
- ❌Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
- ❌Just 2 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 3 times that campaign
- ❌Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t have a good reord
- ❌Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
- ❌No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends – The Last 20 Runnings
- 20/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- 19/20 – Had raced within the last 3 months
- 18/20 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham previously
- 17/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd in last race
- 17/20 – From the top 3 in the betting
- 17/20 – Won over at least 3m (chase) previously
- 15/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths+
- 15/20 – Won last time out
- 14/20 – Favourites placed
- 13/20 – Won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire previously
- 12/20 – Rated 170 or higher
- 11/20 – Irish bred
- 10/20 – Winning favourites
- 9/20 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 7)
- 8/20 – Had last raced in the previous calendar year
- 8/20 – Won over fences at Cheltenham previously
- 5/20 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton)
- 4/20 – Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) in last race
- 3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of the last 5)
- 2/20 – Raced in the Savills Chase last time out
- 2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- 2/20 – Trained by Henry De Bromhead (2 of the last 3)
- The average winning SP in the last 20 renewals is 11/2
Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats
- Only Kauto Star (2009) has ever regained the race
- 28 of the last 29 winners have been aged 9 or younger
- 9 of the last 21 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year
- 18 of the last 22 winners were rated 166 +
- 22 of the last 24 winners had won a race already that current campaign
- 16 of the last 22 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival in the past
- 11 of the last 23 winners had run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton)
- 22 of the last 23 winners had won a Grade One Chase contest in the past
- The last winner aged older than 11+ was in 1969 (What a Myth, 12)
- Just one 10 year-old winner since 1993 (Cool Dawn, 1998)
ALL Of The Last 19 Gold Cup Winners Were Aged 9 or Younger
First up is the age. Okay, most of the Gold Cup runners will fit this trend, but it’s still worth noting as it knocks out the 2023 Grand National winner Corach Rambler, the two-time Festival winner Monkfish and also the Henry De Bromhead-trained Jungle Boogie, who are all aged 10.
All of the other eight Gold Cup runners fit the bill, with Galopin Des Champs aged 8 and looking to join A Plus Tard, Minella Indo and Al Boum Photo – who were all 8 year-old winners since 2020.
The last 10 (or older) year-old Gold Cup winner was the Robert Alner-trained Cool Dawn (10) in 1998.
How Have Past Gold Cup Champions Fared?
Kauto Star became the first horse ever to ‘regain’ the Gold Cup in 2009 – having won it two years earlier in 2007. While Al Boum Photo was the last back-to-back winner in 2019 and 2020.
However, before Photo it was the mighty Best Mate that won three Gold Cup’s on the spin between 2002 and 2004.
While going back further the next repeat winner was the former Grand National winner L’Escargot in 1970 and 1971.
Therefore, this means since 1972 there have only been two back-to-back Gold Cup winners – a stat the 2023 hero Galopin Des Champs will need to defy.
Having a Run In The Last 3 Months Is Another Huge Plus
Fitness is also key for the Gold Cup – well, having a recent run at least. We’ve seen a massive 19 of the last 20 winners run within the last 3 months. Again, the main bulk of entries will be fine here, with Galopin Des Champs last running 41 days ago in the Irish Gold Cup.
Always best to give a few days grace here, but those that last race 90+ days ago are Corach Rambler (111) and Gentlemansgame (132),
90% Of the Last 20 Winners Had Run Over Fences at Cheltenham Before
The ‘horses for courses’ rule applies a lot at Cheltenham and with 90% of the last 19 Gold Cup winners having tasted the Cheltenham fences before. Several are fine here, including – of course – last year’s winner Galopin Des Champs and Corach Rambler, who is 2-from-2 at Prestbury Park.
Those that fall down are – Jungle Boogie and Gentlemansgame.
RELATED: See Friday’s Cheltenham trends for ALL seven races.
Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead Have Won The Last 5 Gold Cups Between Them
Up until 2019 the Gold Cup had eluded Willie Mullins, but the Closutton handler is making up for lost time now – having won three of the last 5.
His fellow Irish trainer Henry De Bromhead has a similar profile – with his first win in the race coming in 2021 – and followed up a year later in 2022.
17 Of The Last 20 Gold Cup Winners Came From The Top Three In The Betting
The Gold Cup has also been a race that punter have often got right in recent years. We’ve seen 17 of the last 20 winners hail from the top three in the betting.
Of course, the betting can change an lot into the race, but as it stands, Galopin Des Champs, Fastorslow and Gerri Colombe tick this Cheltenham stat as it stands.
The Favourite Has Won 50% Of Recent Gold Cups (last 20)
Following on the ‘top three’ trends it’s no shocker that the favourite in the Gold Cup has also done well recently. The market leader for the Gold Cup has won 50% of the last 20, which is a fair return in the best Cheltenham Festival race.
Yet another plus for Galopin Des Champs.
Look For Horses That Won Last Time Out
Recent winners have also done well in the Gold Cup. We’ve had 15 of the last 20 (75%) of winners taking this off the back of a win. Of the 11 runners this year, this is a plus for Galopin Des Champs, Gentlemansgame, Monkfish, Jungle Boogie and Nassalam.
The Irish Have Trained 6 Of The Last 7 Gold Cup Winners
As we all know the Irish have dominated the Cheltenham Festival in recent times and they’ve also farmed the Gold Cup. We’ve seen an Irish-trained winner of the Gold Cup in six of the last seven years – with Native River (2018) – the last Gold Cup horse to not be Irish-trained.
Again, another feather in the cap for the favourite – Galopin Des Champs, plus the other Emerald Isle runners are Jungle Boogie, Monkfish, Hewick, Gentlemansgame, Gerri Colombe and Fastorslow.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends Pick: Galopin Des Champs Ticks All The Boxes (Again)
Overall, there is one horse that keeps cropping up – and that’s the likely Gold Cup favourite – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS.
The Willie Mullins yard, who fired in their 100th Festival winner in the Bumper earlier in the week, will be looking for their fourth win in the last six years and it seems Galopin Des Champs has one of the best profiles going into the race. Okay, those looking to take him on will look to the fact since his Gold Cup win in 2023 he’s been beaten twice by Fastorslow.
But he’s since bounced back to win his last two, including another easy success in the Irish Gold Cup last month.
Let’s also not forget he’s also now a two-time past Festival winner too – when taking the Martin Pipe back in 2021, while at just 8 there is every chance we’ve not seen the best of him yet either. A scary thought for his oppo!
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
- 2023 – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (7/5 fav)
- 2022 – A PLUS TARD (11/10 fav)
- 2021 – MINELLA INDO (9/1)
- 2020 – AL BOUM PHOTO (10/3 fav)
- 2019 – AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
- 2018 – NATIVE RIVER (5/1)
- 2017 – SIZING JOHN (7/1)
- 2016 – DON COSSACK (9/4 fav)
- 2015 – CONEYGREE (7/1)
- 2014 – LORD WINDERMERE (20/1)
- 2013 – BOBS WORTH (11/4 fav)
WATCH: Galopin Des Champs Winning The 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
