We continue with our in-depth ‘positive and negative’ Cheltenham Festival trends 2024 for DAY TWO as the meeting moves into Wednesday – with plenty to look forward to, including the feature Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Cheltenham Festival Trends on Day Two: Wednesday 13th March 2024
The Cheltenham Festival trends on day two will feature another SIX top National Hunt races, with the Queen Mother Champion Chase always the big highlight on the Wednesday.
A race trainer Willie Mullins has won for the last two years and he’s expected to make it three with the big Cheltenham banker – El Fabiolo.
On the Wednesday, we also see the Festival ‘marmite’ race – The Cross Country Chase, now called off due to a waterlogged track and it won’t be moved to any of the other days unfortunately.
In total, we’ve another SIX races on day two – plus with the Cross Country Chase OFF, there are also revised times (see below).
So by applying the Cheltenham Festival trends below to the final runners, you can find the best profile of past results and winners and put history on your side.
These stats can hopefully point you in the direction of many winners over the day.
More 2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY ONE: Including Champion Hurdle & Arkle Chase
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY THREE: Including Stayers’ Hurdle & Ryanair Chase
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY FOUR: Including Gold Cup and County Hurdle
WATCH: All the 2023 Cheltenham Festival Day Two Finishes
Cheltenham Festival Trends on Wednesday
1.45 – Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Reg as Baring Bingham) (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV
2023 Winner: IMPAIRE ET PASSE (5/2)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
2024 Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle Trends
The day two action at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival kicks-off with the Baring Bingham, or the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle – a chance to see some of the stars of the future. With in recent years the likes of Faugheen, Samcro and Envoi Allen on the roll of honour.
It’s a race that 89% of the last 19 winners came from the top four in the betting, the Irish have won 9 of the last 10 and Willie Mullins has taken six winners in the last 16 runnings.
POSITIVES
- 19 of the last 23 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
- 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
- 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 7 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
- 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
- 28 of the last 29 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- The Irish have won 14 of the last 21 (9 of last 10)
- Horses rated 150+ do well
- 12 of the last 15 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
- 24 of the last 29 winners (including last 12) had won at least one bumper race
- 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 6
- In the last 12 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 24 of the 36 top 3 places
- 23 of the last 25 were NH bred
- 17 of the last 25 had won a graded race before
- Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 13 had won an Irish Point)
- Respect Willie Mullins – 6 winners in last 16 years (4 of the last 10)
- Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 winners
NEGATIVES
- Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
- Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
- Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
- Only two of the last 37 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- The last 20 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
- Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 18 years)
2.30 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV
2023 Winner: THE REAL WHACKER (8/1)
Trainer – Patrick Neville
Jockey – Sam Twiston-Davies
UK/Irish: UK
2024 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Trends
L’Homme Presse was a French-bred winner in 2022- but, overall, the raiders born in France don’t have that great a record here. They are just 1 from 43, which would be a big Cheltenham trend against Fact To File, if he runs here.
Another big race for Willie Mullins over the years though – winning the prize five times, most recently with Monkfish in 2021.
POSITIVES
- 11 of the last 12 winners returned single-figures in the betting
- 21 of the last 23 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
- 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase
- The last 22 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
- 16 of the last 17 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
- 26 of the last 29 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
- Respect 7 year-olds – won 14 of the last 17 (19 of last 24)
- 12 of the last 18 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 14 winners were beaten on their chase debut
- 8 of the last 16 winners had won a bumper before
- 8 of the last 17 favourites won
- The last 9 winners were rated 150+
- Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
- Irish bred horses are 22 from the last 27
- 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
- 7 of the last 15 winners were trained in Ireland
- Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 20 between them)
- 26 of the last 31 were novice hurdling last season
- 6 of the last 14 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (55 of the last 57 winners had)
- 12 of the last 17 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
- 8 of the last 9 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
NEGATIVES
- Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race
- Horses in headgear have a poor record
- No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
- Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
- Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
- Just 3 of the last 24 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
- No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
- French bred horses are 1-from-43 (last 17 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
- Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 24 winners)
3.15 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV
2023 Winner: LANGER DAN (9/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK
2024 Coral Cup Trends
Just the one win for Willie Mullins over the years in the Coral Cup, but Nicky Henderson and Gordon Elliott have fared between them – with 7 wins since 2010.
Only one winning favourite in the last 20 years too, which has meant this has been a top race for the layers, plus note horses from the top 8 in the weights (10 of the last 14).
POSITIVES
- Respect JP McManus-owned runners
- Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 14 years)
- 10 of the last 22 winners were French-Bred
- 12 of the last 19 were 2nd season hurdlers
- 18 of the last 23 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
- 11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before (9 had top 4 finish)
- 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
- 10 of the last 15 winners were rated in the 140’s
- 15 of the last 24 winners aged 6 or 7
- 10 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- 13 of the last 18 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
- 21 of the last 29 winners won earlier that season
- 15 of the last 30 won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 15)
- Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (13 of last 15 winners)
- 16 of the last 19 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
- Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 13 runnings
- 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
- 4 of the last 5 winners wore headgear
NEGATIVES
- Just one winning favourite in the last 20 years (2020)
- Only 5 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
- Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 309 to even place since 1999
- Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
- Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 50 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 47 since 2010
4.00 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV
2023 Winner: ENERGUMENE (6/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2024 Champion Chase Trends
Willie Mullins didn’t have a great record in the day two feature – until the last two years when Energumene broke the Closutton handler’s duck.
No three-timer for the current champ, as he’s out injured, but Mullins has an able deputy in El Fabiolo – who is expected to be one of the shortest-priced runners at the entire meeting. He’ll take on his old rival Jonbon again, but firmly put him in his place last year here in the Arkle.
POSITIVES
- 13 of the last 23 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- 4 of the last 11 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 25 of the last 39 had won at the Festival before
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 24 between them
- Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 12
- 29 of the last 37 winners aged between 7-9
- 14 of the last 22 winners won last time out
- 14 of the last 18 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- 18 of the last 21 winners had run that calendar year
- 40 of the last 42 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
- 17 of the last 24 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 17 winners were French-bred
- 12 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers
- 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
- 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 17 of the last 24 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
- 7 of the last 13 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
- Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
NEGATIVES
- Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
- Just 1 winner in last 19 had run 4+ times that season
- Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
- Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
- Just 1 of the last 22 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
- Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
- Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
- Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 49 years
- Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 45 years
- 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
- Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)
4.10 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV **Cancelled due to a waterlogged track (won’t be rescheduled)**
2023 Winner: DELTA WORK (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
UK/Irish: Irish
2024 Cross Country Chase Trends
Another rare race that trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win – but, in contrast, it’s a prize Gordon Elliott loves to target with five wins in the last seven.
The Irish have dominated too – winning 16 of the last 19, while top owners Gigginstown House Stud have been responsible for 6 of the last 9 winners.
POSITIVES
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 runnings
- 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
- The Irish have won 16 of the last 19 runnings
- Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
- 16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
- 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top three in the betting
- 10 of the last 19 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
- 15 of the last 19 winners had run on the course before
- Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (4 wins)
- 15 or the last 19 winners were aged 10 or younger
- 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or 9
- Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
- 10 of the last 19 winners had run in the NH Chase before
- 6 of the last 9 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
- The last 8 winners wore headgear
- 9 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-tie
NEGATIVES
- Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
- Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
- Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
- Just 3 of the last 14 winners won their last race
- Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
4.50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV
2023 Winner: MASKADA (22/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Darragh O’Keeffe
UK/Irish: Irish
2024 Grand Annual Chase Trends
Named in honour of Nicky Henderson’s father, so it’s no shock the Seven Barrows man has won the race twice since 2006.
A race Willie Mullins is yet to score in though, but he almost broke that duck in 2023 when his classy mare Dinoblue took silver.
The negatives here have been just two winning favourites in the last 19, while last time out winners are also only 1 from 17.
POSITIVES
- 10 of the last 14 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 11 of the last 15 winners novices or second season chasers
- 12 of the last 18 winners aged between 6-8
- 13 of the last 20 winners were aged 8 or older
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more
- 16 of the last 20 winners had run at the Festival before
- 8 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous renewal
- Irish have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
- Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
- Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 20
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
- 12 of the last 13 winners were rated at least 138
- 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
- Novices have won 6 of the last 15 runnings
- 5 of the last 9 winners won after a 91+ day break
- 10 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-147
- 11 of the last 13 winners rated between 138-150
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more in weight
- 21 of the last 24 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
NEGATIVES
- Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 28 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
- Only 2 of the last 19 winners were favourites
- Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
- Last time out winners are just 1 from last 17
- Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 35 since 2005
- Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
5.30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
2022 Winner: FACILE VEGA (15/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
2024 Champion Bumper Trends
With 12 wins in the race for Willie Mullins this is the Festival contest that the top Irish handler has won the most times. He was denied last year by A Dream To Share, but had the three winners prior to 2023 and has sent out four of the last 6 winning horses.
In fact, the Irish lead the British horses 25-7 in the Bumper and it’s likely to be more of the same in 2024.
POSITIVES
- Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
- 29 of the last 31 had won last time out (all of last 19)
- 24 of the last 31 winners trained in Ireland
- Respect Irish-trained runners (24 from 40)
- 22 of the last 31 came from the top 6 in the betting
- 24 of the last 31 were Irish-bred
- 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 20 of the last 31 winners aged 5 years-old
- 20 of the last 22 had their debut runs in Ireland
- 12 of the last 23 winners were second season horses
- 12 of the last 21 had been beaten in a race before
- 6 of the last 14 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
- The Irish lead the British 25-7 in the race history
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
- 12 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- Mares are 3-21 in the last 19 runnings
- 7 of the last 8 winners had run in February
- 3 of the last 5 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud
NEGATIVES
- Just 2 of the last 13 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
- Only 4 of the last 13 winners were won by UK-based trainers
- Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
- Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
- 4 year-olds are 1 from 67 since 2000 (Cue Card)
- Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
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