See our 2024 Cheltenham Festival trends on day four that will help narrow down the runners in each race. You can use the key Cheltenham stats to highlight the best profile of horses based on past winners.
Making the Cheltenham trends a great way to find winners on day four – with history having a habit of repeating itself. Like, 20 of the last 23 Gold Cup winners (87%) finishing 1st or 2nd last time out.
Cheltenham Festival Trends on Day Four: Friday 15th March 2024
It’s day four at the Cheltenham Festival and Gold Cup Day.
Before the ‘big one’, the action on the final day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival starts with the Triumph Hurdle (1:30). This is a race that all eyes will be on Sir Gino, who will be hoping to give trainer Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the day four opener.
The County Hurdle (2:10) is the second race of the day and this is a prize the Dan Skelton camp love to target – winning 4 of the last 8 runnings.
Some fair chances in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (2:50) – a prize Willie Mullins has won twice in the last six years and has been landed by a 6 or 7 year-old in 16 of the last 18 renewals.
It’s Cheltenham Gold Cup (3:30) time next and if the Cheltenham odds are anything to go by it’s all about Galopin Des Champs here – last year’s winner. This Mullins will be hoping to give the trainer his fourth Gold Cup win since 2019.
The Hunters’ Chase (4:10) follows – the Gold Cup for the amateur riders and the last two winners of the race Premier Magic and Billaway could be back for more.
We end the 2024 Festival with the Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (4:50) and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (5:30). The last-named has been dominated by Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and Joesph O’Brien recently – winning 9 of the last 11 between them.
More 2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY ONE: Including Champion Hurdle & Arkle Chase
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY TWO: Including Champion Chase & Cross Country Chase
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024 For DAY THREE: Including Stayers’ Hurdle & Ryanair Chase
WATCH: All the 2023 Cheltenham Festival Day Four Finishes
Cheltenham Festival Trends on Friday
1.30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV
2023 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Positives…..
- Irish have won 8 of the last 11 runnings
- French-breds have filled 14 of the last 23 places (last 9 runnings)
- 23 of the last 30 winners won last time out
- 9 of the last 15 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
- 14 of the last 19 came from the top 4 in the betting
- 13 of the last 16 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
- Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
- The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it)
- Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
- Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 10 years
- Mullins and Rich Ricci has won the last 2 runnings
- 10 of the last 13 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (8 of the last 12) last time
- 10 of the last 12 winners had raced by Christmas time
- 7 of the last 9 winners began their careers in France
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
- Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
- Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
- Just 2 of the last 19 winner returned bigger than 12/1
- Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 15
- Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020, 2022, 2023 races – currently 3-from-41 runners
- Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)
2.10 – BetMGM County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV
2023 Winner: FAIVOIR (33/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Bridget Andrews
UK/Irish: UK
Positives…..
- 8 of the last 9 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Dan Skelton (4)
- Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 14 runnings
- The Irish have won 11 of the last 17 runnings
- 18 of the last 23 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
- 14 of the last 18 winners were rated in the 130’s
- 9 of the last 16 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
- 7 of the last 15 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
- 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 12 of the last 25 winners aged 5
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham before
- 11 of the last 17 winners Irish-trained
- 9 of the last 16 winners started their careers in France
- 14 of the last 18 winners were priced in double-figures
- 13 of the last 20 winners began their careers on the flat
- Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
- Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
- 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
- 12 of the last 23 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
- 12 of the last 17 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- 5 of the last 8 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
- Paul Nicholls is 4 from 32 (+15pts)
- Willie Mullins is 4 from 52 (+36.25pts)
- Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 8 winners
Negatives….
- Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-20) since 2011
- Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-36) this century
- Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
- Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
- Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 38 in last 16 runnings
- Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
- Since 1961, only 10 winners had run at the Festival before
- Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
- Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 22
- Just 3 of the last 16 winners returned a single-figure price
- Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
- Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 2 winners have defied this stat
2.50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2023 Winner: STAY AWAY FAY (18/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK
Positives…..
- 7 of the last 19 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
- 16 of the last 19 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
- 9 of the last 19 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
- 16 of the last 19 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
- 8 of the last 12 winners had won a Point
- 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland
- 10 of the last 15 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
- 9 of the last 13 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
- 9 of the last 19 came from the top 5 in the betting
- 10 of the last 19 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
- 15 of the last 19 had run in a race over 3m
- 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 15 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
- 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 12 of the last 19 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
- 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
- 4 of the last 18 favourites won
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
- Challow Hurdle winners have a poor Festival record
- Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
- Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
- Willie Mullins is 3 from 47 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 6
- Gordon Elliott is 0-from-12
- Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 19)
- 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 120)
- Only 4 of the last 18 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
- Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 11 years
- No Winning favourites in the last 10 runnings
3.30 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV
2023 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (7/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Positives…..
- 19 of the last 24 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
- 12 of the last 18 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
- 19 of the last 24 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
- 20 of the last 23 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 23 of the last 24 winners were Grade 1 winners
- Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
- 19 of the last 23 had won or placed at the Festival before
- 19 of the last 23 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
- 21 of the last 24 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
- 14 of the last 16 winners ran 3 or less times that season
- 17 of the last 27 winners were bred in Ireland
- 17 of the last 23 winners won last time out
- 11 of the last 21 winners were favourites (52%)
- 14 of the last 19 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
- ALL of the last 24 winners were aged 9 or younger
- Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
- 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
- Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
- 23 of the last 24 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
- 21 of the last 24 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
Negatives….
- No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 74)
- Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
- Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
- Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 46
- Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
- Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
- Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
- Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
- No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
- Just 2 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
- Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
See more Cheltenham Gold Cup trends and stats from the last 20 years here.
4.10 – St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV
2023 Winner: Premier Magic
Trainer – Bradley Gibbs
Jockey – Mr Bradley Gibbs
UK/Irish: Irish
Positives…..
- 29 of the last 33 winners were aged under 11 years-old
- 27 of the last 38 won last time out
- The last 9 winners aged 10 or 11
- 20 of the last 21 winners Irish or French bred
- The last 17 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
- 8 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
- 9 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
- 31 of the last 35 started out in point-to-point races
- 14 of the last 18 winners ran 34 days or less ago
- Respect the Irish runners (won 9 of last 13)
- 5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
- 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
- 9 of the last 15 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
- 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 11 of the last 14 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 11, rated 138+)
- 3 back-to-back winners in the last 12
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times
Negatives….
- Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
- Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
- Just 2 winners in the last 47 years aged 12 or older
- 30 of the last 37 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
- Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 36 runnings
- Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
- Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
- Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
- British bred horses are 0-89 (last 21 runnings)
- Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
- Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 266 since 1990
- Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV
2023 Winner: IMPERVIOUS (1st 15/8)
Trainer – Colm Murphy
Jockey – Brian Hayes
UK/Irish: Irish
Positives…..
- Only 3 previous runnings
- Willie Mullins trained 2 winners
- Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
- All 3 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
- All 3 winners have been 2nd favourite
- All 3 winners won last time out
- All 3 winners rated 150+
- All 3 winners aged 7-8
- No winning favourite yet
5.30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV
2023 Winner: IROKO
Trainer – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Jockey – Aidan Kelly
UK/Irish: UK
Positives….
- All 15 winners aged 7 or younger
- 9 or the last 12 winners rated 138+
- 14 of the last 15 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
- 11 of the last 13 winners placed in the top 3 last time
- All of the last 15 winners carried 11-1 or more
- 3 of the last 6 winners had top-weight
- 13 of the last 15 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
- 6 of the last 10 winners were Irish-based Novices
- Irish have won 8 of the last 13 (6 making handicap debuts)
- 37 of the 39 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
- Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
- 12 of the 15 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
- 8 of the 15 winners won last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners had run over a longer trip that season
- 9 of the 15 winners were rated 133-139
- 9 of the 15 winners returned at a double-figure price (11 of the last 15 were 16/1 or less)
- 5 and 6 year-old have won 13 of last 15 runnings
- Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
- Willie Mullins is 4 from 25 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 13 runnings)
- Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
- Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 11 years
- Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 9 of the last 11 between them
- Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
- Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5
Negatives….
- Just 1 winning fav in the 15-year history (9-13 returned in double-figures)
- Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
- Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 63
- Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 78
- Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-100
- Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
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