Saturday’s Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket is one of the biggest betting races of the season for bookmakers with a competitive field of runners fighting it out for the £100k top prize. It’s a race trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 times in the last 4 years too, so let’s take a look at the main Cesarewitch trends for the 2022 contest.
The final runners are now out, so you can use these Cesarewitch Handicap trends to find the horses with the best profiles based on past winners.
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What Date/Time Is The Newmarket Cesarewitch Handicap 2022?
📅Date: 3:40pm – Saturday 8th October 2022
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket (2m 2f)
💰 Purse/Winner: £103,080
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
DID YOU KNOW? 14 of the last 20 Cesarewitch Handicap winners were aged 5 or older and finished 4th or better last time out. So, why not snap-up a FREE £30 bet with 888Sport to use on Saturday’s Newmarket race?
2022 Cesarewitch Handicap Trends To Note
The turf flat season doesn’t draw to a close until November, but as we hit October this week we are now in the final few weeks of the horse racing grass flat campaign in the UK – with the new jumps season proper now very much in sight.
However, let’s not wish our lives away, as prior to the ‘hedge-hoppers’ getting more airtime, there is still plenty to take in on the flat.
We’ve Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday 15th and before that a cracking fixture at Newmarket, which includes the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap (8th Sept) this Saturday – a prize the powerful Willie Mullins Irish yard has won three times in the last four years, so anything they send over always has to be respected.
The Cesarewitch Handicap race is run over a distance of 2m2f and is one of the big flat handicap betting races on the calendar, while with 20+ runners it’s a race the bookmakers love with big-priced winners in recent times that included Grumeti (50/1), Scatter Dice (66/1) and Aaim To Prosper (66/1).
However, punters have hit back a back a bit in recent years with two winning favourites in the last five runnings.
With the Cesarewitch Handicap being first run back in 1839, there are also a stack of past trends and stats to apply to the race – and these can often help find the horses with the best profiles based on past winners.
Let’s take a look in more detail the best Cesarewitch trends to look out for once the final runners are out.
See the latest 2022 Cesarewitch Handicap betting odds below
DID YOU KNOW? 16 of the last 20 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9st 2lbs or less in weight
Let’s Take A Look At The Main 2022 Cesarewitch Handicap Trends In Detail
Age Concern – We saw a 3-year-old (Darley Sun) win the Cesarewitch in 2009, but that was the only horse of that age to win the Newmarket race since 1998. Therefore, past trends suggest concentrating on horses aged 4 or older with a huge 19 of the last 20 winners ticking that age stat.
Plus, with 14 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or older, including last year’s winner – Buzz – who was a 7 year-old. At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve only seen five winners aged 8 or older since 1974. Therefore, in short, horses aged between 4 and 7 seem to be the ones to focus on.
Fitness First – Having had a recent outing – well, within the last two months – is another positive to look for with 15 of the last 20 (75%) of winners having raced in the last 8 weeks, while 11 of the last 20 winners had three or more previous outings that season on the flat.
Market Guide – The Cesarewitch is a race that always attracts a huge field of 20+ runners, so it’s no shock the bookmakers adore this contest. This is backed up in recent years with 14 of the last 20 winners returning double-figure prices – but last year’s winner, Buzz, was a fairly well-fancied 8/1 shot.
Since 1993, we’ve only had four winning market leaders in the betting, but a small word of caution here as the tide might also be turning with two winning favourites in the last five runnings.
The jolly doesn’t have a bad record of being placed though – with 9 of the last 20 (45%) market leaders hitting the frame (first 4). The race has also given us some big-priced winners in recent times, so don’t be put off in looking further down the market. Since 2008, we’ve had two 66/1 and two 50/1 winners, while the average winning SP in the last 20 years is 21/1.
Weight Watchers – Being a handicap, then the weight burden is another key stat to have in your corner – after all, it’s run over 2m2f, then carrying a big weight is not always easy. This is backed-up with 16 of the last 20 winners carried 9-2 or less – last year’s winner, Buzz, ticked this trend too with 8-13 on his back.
That’s an 80% return, so this alone will mean you can put a line through a lot of the final runners. Yes, two of the last four winners – Stratum and Low Sun – carried 9st 2lbs – but it could also pay to know that six of the last nine (66%) winners had just 8st 8lbs or less.
Form Figures – We’ve already mentioned that having a recent run is a plus, but also having a good ‘last-time-out’ race has been another key trend to look for. 14 of the last 20 winners finished in the top four last time out, while also look for form over at least 2m on the flat with 12 of the last 20 Cesarewitch winners having won over at least 2m (flat) before.
Draw Advantage – With the Cesarewitch being run over one of the longer trips on the flat (2m2f), then punters often fall into the trap that the draw isn’t too important. But it’s certainly something still worth looking into. Having a good early starting position can set horses up well and save valuable energy by not having to go wide of runners when making their challenges in the final furlongs. This theory is supported with 11 of the last 20 (55%) winners being drawn 13 or lower.
Yes, two of the last three winners – Stratum and Great White Shark – both managed to defy this draw trend and won from the 20 berth, so we can’t totally rule out those drawn high. However, last year’s winner – Buzz – got the job done from the 6 stall, while it’s also worth noting horses from stall 1 have an okay recent record – we’ve seen three of the last 20 (15%) winning.
Recent Run – Having raced last time out at Ascot, Chester or Doncaster is another stat to look for with 8 of the last 20 (40%) winners ticking this stat – while 11 of the last 20 winners had previous experience at the Newmarket (Rowley Mile) track.
Trainer/Jockey Stats – The Cesarewitch is a gruelling long trip for a flat race, it’s also no surprise to see stables that are better known for their National Hunt runners targeting this prize. We’ve already mentioned the powerful Irish Willie Mullins stable, who have won three of the last four runnings, while the likes of Alan King, Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs are other NH yards that have been successful since 2008 – with Henderson winning the race for a third time 12 months ago too with Buzz (watch below)
Looking at the flat handlers, then Mark Johnston has won the race in 1998, 2004 and 2013 so must be respected too, as should Brian Meehan (if any runners), who trained Aaim to Prosper to land the race in 2010 and 2012.
In terms of jockeys, Jason Watson is making a name for himself in this race – winning two of the last three – both for Willie Mullins. So, look out for Watson again as there is every chance, he’ll get the leg up on one of the Mullins runners again as the pair look to continue their fine recent record in the race.
RELATED: Dewhurst Stakes 2022 Betting Trends For Newmarket Race
Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Trends Summary
- 19/20 – Aged 4 or older
- 16/20 – Carried 9-2 or less
- 15/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
- 15/20 – Had run within the last 2 months
- 14/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 14/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out
- 14/20 – Aged 5 or older
- 12/20 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
- 11/20 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
- 11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 11/20 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
- 11/20 – Had run at the track before
- 11/20 – Won by a NH trainer
- 9/20 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
- 9/20 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
- 9/20 – Placed favourites
- 8/20 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
- 5/20 – Winning mares
- 4/20 – Winning favourites
- 3/20 – Winners from stall 1
- 3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 4 winners)
- 3/20 – Won last time out
- 3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- 2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
- 2/20 – Trained by Brian Meehan
- 2/20 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
- The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 21/1
- Just 4 winning favourites since 1993
2022 Cesarewitch Handicap Betting & Key Runners
See below the latest betting ahead of the Newmarket Cesarewitch Handicap on Saturday 8th October.
2022 Cesarewitch Handicap Betting & Key Runners
See below the latest betting ahead of the Newmarket Cesarewitch Handicap on Saturday 8th October.
| Cesarewitch Horse | Latest Odds | Bookmaker |
| RUN FOR OSCAR | 4/1 |  |
| AHORSEWITHNONAME | 9/2 | |
| VINO VICTRIX | 9/1 | |
| SCARAMANGA | 10/1 | |
| BABY ZEUS | 10/1 | |
| GIBRALTOR | 11/1 | |
| EVALUATION | 14/1 | |
| ZOFFEE | 14/1 | |
| CALL MY BLUFF | 16/1 | |
| PRINCE IMPERIAL | 20/1 | |
| INCHICORE | 20/1 | |
| FAVORITE MOON | 20/1 | |
| BAR | 22/1 | |
All odds correct as of 09:24 BST on Sat 8 Oct and subject to change
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Recent Cesarewitch Handicap Winners
- 2021 – Buzz (8/1)
- 2020 – Great White Shark (9/2 fav)
- 2019 – Stratum (25/1)
- 2018 – Low Sun (10/1)
- 2017 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
- 2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1)
- 2015 – Grumeti (50/1)
- 2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
- 2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1)
- 2012 – Aaim To Prosper (66/1)
Watch Buzz Winning The 2021 Cesarewitch Handicap Again
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