We’ve got the key Ascot horse racing trends and tips ahead of their cracking Saturday jumps card this weekend that includes three LIVE ITV races and the Coral Hurdle and Nirvana Spa 1965 Spa Chase. You can use these key Ascot stats to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.
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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sat 25th Nov 2023): Including Stats For 1965 Chase and Coral Hurdle
Top-notch jumping action returns to Ascot this Saturday and the ITV horse racing cameras are also at the Berkshire track to take in three of their seven races.
The first of those is the Grade 2 Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase (1:30pm) and despite just the six runners we should be in for a fasinating race with a matchup that involves the two biggest UK trainers, Nicholls and Henderson going head-to-head. Paul Nicholls sends his Pic D’Orhy, while Henderson pitches Shishkin, it what looks a great duel.
At 2:05pm, the Coral Hurdle sees the return of last year’s winner Goshen, but will be ridden by a new jockey for the first time after regualar jumps pilot Jamie Moore suffered a bad fall at Lingfield on Tuesday.
Then the final ITV race at Ascot on Saturday is the Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase (3:15pm) and we see another past winner back for more as the 2022 hero Boothill, from the Harry Fry camp, will be trying to follow up.
Plus, the ITV racing cameras are also at Haydock on Saturday and you can see all the key trends there too.
Ascot Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Saturday 25th November 2023
1.30 – Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV
Shishkin is the clear top-rated chaser in the field at 173 and that’s 11lbs higher than his big rival – Pic D’Orhy. The Henderson camp opted for this race instead of a tilt at the Betfair Chase at Haydock, with the shorter trip and better ground the reasoning as connections still have the King George VI on Boxing Day as his target and don’t need to be getting him into a slog with just a month before the Kempton race.
This race has been won 11 times in the last 20 years by either Henderson (3) or Nicholls (8) too and it will be a shock if one of them isn’t mopping up again. Both Shishkin and Pic D’Orhy are course winners at Ascot too. While, despite Nicholls having the better record in the race, it’s hard to ignore the fact SHISHKIN at 8/15 with BetMGM is rated 11lbs higher than the Nicholls horse. Plus, let’s not forget, he slammed him at the Berkshire track by 16-lengths last February in the Ascot Chase too. More of the same is the call here.
Key Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase Trends
- 17/20 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 17/20 – Aged 8 or younger
- 16/20 – Between 1-4 previous chase wins
- 15/20 – Won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
- 14/20 – Placed favourites
- 14/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 13/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival later that season
- 13/20 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
- 12/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
- 12/20 – Raced at Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (8) last time out
- 11/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
- 10/20 – Favourites (3 joint)
- 9/20 – Won last race
- 8/20 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
- 4/20 – Aged 5 years-old
- 3/20 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
- 2/20 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, Ryanair Chase 2009 & 2016)
- Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor
2.05 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV
Last year’s winner Goshen will be popular and will be fitter than most after running in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket on the flat last month. However, this Gary Moore runner is not an easy horse to catch right and even though his ability isn’t in question, his consistency is – with his last win coming in this very race 12 months ago.
With that in mind, the Nicky Henderson runner THEATRE GLORY at 5/2 with BetMGM is preferred, coming from a yard that won this race in 2021 with Buzz and have four successes in the last 21 years. She was last seen running the useful Knappers Hill close at Sandown in April and wasn’t disgraced in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival – beaten 11 1/2 lengths to Honeysuckle. Nothing of that calibre in the race here – while she’s also a mare that has a good record fresh, so the 210-day break is fine.
Of the rest, the Nicholls runner Blueking D’Oroux won well here last month and at just 4 years-old should have a lot more to come. While with the Harry Fry team having a top record in this race (3 wins from last 8), then their MIGHT I 6/1 with BetMGM is worth a saver too.
Key Coral Hurdle Trends
- 21/21 – Returned 7/2 or shorter
- 19/21 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles)
- 18/21 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race
- 17/21 – Won by and Irish (12) or French (5) bred horse
- 16/21 – Placed favourirtes
- 13/21 – Won last time out
- 13/21 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles
- 13/21 – Last raced 3 months or longer ago
- 12/21 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
- 11/21 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race
- 11/21 – Favourites (2 joint)
- 8/21 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot
- 6/21 – Went onto run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle after winning this (1 winner)
- 5/21 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both renewals in 2014-15
- 4/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 4/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard
- 3/21 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 6)
- 4 of the last 17 winners were Irish-trained
- Goshen (6/5) won the race in 2022
- Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor
3.15 – Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV
The final ITV race at Ascot this Saturday is a decent handicap and we see last year’s winner BOOTHILL at 11/4 with BetMGM is back for more. This Harry Fry runner is, however, rated a massive 15lbs higher than 12 months ago and will have to shoulder 12st here.
That said, he’s a horse that’s clearly improved over the last year and backed that up with an easy 4-length return success here at Ascot earlier this month. He’s up 6lbs from that win, but it came off a 252-day break too and can be expected to have come on for the spin as well.
Several others will be popular, including Sanit Segal, Corrigeen Rock and the lightly-weighted Frere D’Armes, but of those at bigger prices the Joe Tizzard runner TRIPLE TRADE (e/w) at 15/2 with BetMGM won well at Cheltenham last week and is only 5lbs higher. He travelled well that day into the race and even though this will be harder he’s clearly thriving at the moment.
Key Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase Trends
- 16/17 – Won over fences over 2m (or further) before
- 16/17 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
- 15/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
- 13/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 11/17 – Rated 142 or higher
- 10/17 – Raced at Ascot before
- 10/17 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
- 9/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 9/17 – Favourites placed
- 9/17 – Raced at either Ascot (4) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
- 7/17 – Won last time out
- 6/17 – Favourites
- 4/17 – Aged 6 years-old
- 2/17 – Ridden by Jonathan Burke (2 of the last 6)
- Boothill (2/1 jfav) won the race in 2022
- Note: Odds are subject to change
Ascot Full Running Order: Saturday 25th November 2023
- 12:20 – Bet With Ascot Donation Box Scheme Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5½f SKY
- 12:55 – Royal Ascot Racing Club Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 3m SKY
- 1:30 – Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV
- 2:05 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m3½f ITV
- 2:40 – Restorations UK Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (4yo+ 0-130) 2m7½f SKY
- 3:15 – Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m1f ITV
- 3:50 – Nirvana Spa Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race) Cl3 (4-5yo) 1m7½f
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