Use our Ascot horse racing trends ahead of another huge ITV horse racing day this Saturday (29th July). The cameras will be at the Berkshire track to take in four races that are spearheaded by the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3:40pm) – a contest being billed as ‘the race of the season’.
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Ascot Horse Racing Trends: ITV Racing Stats For Saturday 29th July 2023
The ITV horse racing cameras are in action at Ascot and York this Saturday with four races at the Berkshire track to look forward to.
Of course, the Group One King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3:40pm) is the big feature where a case can be made for at least the first five in the betting – including last year’s winner Pyledriver and this season’s Epsom Derby 1-2 Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel.
But – did you know, we’ve only seen two winning King George 6 year-olds since the 1950’s?
The supporting Ascot races see the Group Three Princess Margaret Stakes and Valiant Stakes feature on the 8-race card too.
RELATED: King George Runners Guide 2023 – Ascot Attracts 11 in Race of the Season So Far
Ascot Horse Racing Trends and Tips Including the King George
1:50 – Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV
A top three finish last time out is key here (85%), while the betting is often a good guide with 80% of the last 20 winners hailing from the first three in the market. It’s also a race that’s seen 50% of the last 20 favourites win and this year, in a tight market, it looks like Symbology, Pretty Crystal, Komat and Lunar Shine will be the ones fighting it out for the top betting spot.
Running at Newmarket last time out (50% of last 20) is another thing to look for and Godolphin’s Dazzling Star ticks this stat as does the Jonathan Portman runner Cry Fiction.
- 17/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 16/20 – Had won just once before
- 16/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
- 16/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 15/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
- 15/20 – Won over 6f before
- 13/20 – Foaled in either Feb or March
- 10/20 – Winning favourite
- 10/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
- 6/20 – Won last time out
- 5/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
- 3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 3/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of the last 9)
- 2/20 – Won by the Hannon yard
- 9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
- 10 of the last 17 winners were Irish bred
- 9 of the last 17 horses from stall 1 were placed
- 4 of the last 11 winners came from stall 1
- Lezoo (6/5 fav) won the race in 2022
2.25 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Filles and Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV
ALL of the last 11 winners of the Valiant Stakes were aged 3 or 4 years-old, which would be a negative for the fancies Random Harvest. We’ve also seen all of the last 11 winners having run in the last 6 weeks, so not ideal for the Roger Varian runner Ameynah, who was last out 454 days ago.
Other key trends to note are a recent ‘top three finish’, having between 2-3 past wins and horses from stalls 3-8 (inc). With these in mind, the Johnny Murtagh-trained Cadeau Belle, who is 2-from-2 from his runs so far, ticks a lot of boxes.
While the other Irish raider Thornbrook for Joseph O’Brien also stands out.
- 11/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 11/11 – Won over at least 7f before
- 11/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
- 10/11 – Won 2 or 3 times in the past
- 8/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 8/11 – Came from stalls 3-8 (inc)
- 6/11 – Unplaced favourites
- 5/11 – Won last time out
- 5/11 – Irish bred
- 4/11 – Had run at Ascot before
- 2/11 – Winning favourites
- Jumbly (10/3) won the race in 2022
RELATED: 2023 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Trends: Stats To Find Saturday’s Ascot Winner
3.00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV
With 18 of the last 20 winners (90%) of this race aged 5 or younger this rules out a fair few – including the recent Newmarket winner Biggles, who is 6 years-old. 80% of the last 20 winners also carried 8-9 or more in weight, so this would be a negative for the bottom five on the card – Mitrosonfire, Hickory, Top Secret, Mister Bluebird and Zu Run.
Next up is to look at horses from a double-figure draw, a top 5 finish last time out and a recent run at Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock. One horse that ticks these three Ascot trends is the Richard Fahey-trained Ramazan, who won at Haydock last time out, and with the yard also having a fine record in this race this is a further plus.
Of the rest, Fresh won this race last year and is respected again for the James Fanshawe yard, while Frankie Dettori is always going to be popular on the card and rides CD winner Escobar for David O’Meara.
- 20/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
- 20/20 – Had raced at Ascot previously
- 18/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
- 16/20 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
- 15/20 – Won over 7f previously
- 15/20 – Won between 2-4 times previously
- 13/20 – Favourites unplaced
- 13/20 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
- 12/20 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
- 11/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
- 11/20 – Aged 4 years-old
- 8/20 – Raced at Ascot last time out
- 7/20 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
- 5/20 – Won their last race
- 3/20 – Winning favourites
- Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 13 years
- 14 of the last 16 winners ran at Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
- 12 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall
- 10 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
- Fresh (8/1) won the race in 2022
3:35 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champion Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV
Age is the first King George trend to look for as 81% of the last 21 winners were 3 or 4. In fact, we’ve only had one winning 6 year-old since 1999 and only two since the 1950’s. This would be a negative for the two big 6 year-olds in the race – Hukum and last year’s winner Pyledriver.
Having a run at Ascot is another plus, so his might be deemed a small negative for Auguste Rodin, who is yet to race at the Berkshire track – but a plus for the likes of King Of Steel, Pyledriver, Emily Upjohn and Hukum. Frankie Dettori is tied on 7 King George winners with Lester Piggott and is riding in the race for the final time – he gets the leg-up on Emily Upjohn.
Overall, it’s a ‘must-see’ race and one you can make a case for plenty. The soft ground will be to the liking of Hukum, but he’s got to defy the big age trend being a 6 year-old. So, it’s hard to knock the current Epsom Derby winner Auguste Rodin, who has won with cut in the ground before and being a 3 year-old gets a handy 11lbs from most of the older horses.
He’ll be looking to copy the mighty Galileo and add the King George to his wins already in the Epsom and Irish Derby – if he can it will be trainer Aidan O’Brien’s fifth King George and jockey Ryan Moore’s third.
- 21/21 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
- 19/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
- 18/21 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
- 18/21 – Placed last time out
- 17/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 17/21 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
- 17/21 – Previous Group 1 winner
- 13/21 – Had run Ascot before
- 12/21 – Aged 4 years-old
- 12/21 – Won their previous race
- 10/21 – Favourites that won
- 9/21 – Won at Ascot before
- 8/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
- 5/21 – Trained by John Gosden
- 3/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017, 2019 and 2020
- 2 of the last 9 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
- Adayar (2021) and Galileo (2001) were the last horses to do the Derby/King George double in the same season
- Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 & 2020
- Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009, 2010 & 2018
- Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
- Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
- The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 4/1
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RELATED: Frankie Dettori Hopes To Surpass Lester Piggott As All-Time King George Winning Jockey
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