Use our 2023 Royal Ascot trends on day five (Saturday 24th June) as we give you the key stats for ALL SEVEN of the races. You can use these trends to put history on your side and highlight the best profiles of horses based on previous winners.
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2023 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends: Saturday 24th June 2023
The Royal Ascot 2023 action heads into Saturday 24th June as the biggest flat horse racing meeting around moves into the fifth and final day.
On Saturday the meeting ends with seven more races that includes the Group One Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (3:40pm) and also the ultra-competitive Wokingham Handicap (5pm).
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Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends: Live ITV Racing Stats on Saturday 24th June 2023
2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV
This has been a top race for trainer Aidan O’Brien with 4 wins in the last 7 and he’s got a great chance of adding that with Pearls and Rubies as his main Ryan Moore-ridden hope, plus also has Content in as back-up. It’s also interesting that 88% of the last 20 winners came from stalls 1-8, which rules out nine – Pearls and Rubies is drawn 7 and actually horses from draws 1 (3) and 7 (4) has won 7 of the last 17 runnings. Dallas Star is the horse in draw 1. Of the rest, it’s also a race the Hannon and Johnston yards have won in the past a few times each so recent Goodwood winner La Guarida and Carolina Reaper at a big price are others to look for.
Chesham Stakes Trends
- 19/20 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
- 17/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 16/20 – Ran over 6f last time out (10 won)
- 16/20 – Had just 1 previous career run
- 16/20 – Were foaled in March or earlier
- 14/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/20 – Won their previous race
- 7/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
- 5/20 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien, 4 of the last 7 winners)
- 2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
- 2/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon
- Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020 & 2021
- 15 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 1-8
- 7 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
- 13 of the last 17 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
- Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before
- 2022 – Holloway Boy (40/1)
3.05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV
The horse from stall 11 has been second in 33% of the last 15 runnings, so could the Frankie-ridden Covey be set for a silver medal here? It’s another race the Aidan O’Brien yard have done well in – winning it 3 times over the years so his The Antarctic, who won a G3 at Naas last time enters the mix. Charlie Appleby has also won the last two runnings, so his Mysterious Night is respected and should be a lot better after a return run at Newmarket back in April and has been gelded since. The horse from stall 8 has also been placed in 38% of the last 20 runs and this is another O’Brien runner – Age Of Kings, who could be a big price.
Jersey Stakes Trends
- 19/21 – Had at least 1 run already that season
- 17/21 – Had 4 or more career runs
- 13/21 – Had won over 7f before
- 13/21 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
- 11/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 10/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
- 9/21 – Had run at Ascot before
- 8/21 – Horses from stall 8 placed
- 8/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 7/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 6/21 – Won their previous race
- 5/21 – Winning favourites
- 2/21 – Trainer by Charlie Appleby (last 2 runnings)
- 2/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
- 2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
- The Irish have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
- The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 15 runnings
- 2022 – Noble Truth (4/1 fav)
3.40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV
With 80% of the last 20 winners aged 5 or younger this rules out a lot of the fancied runners – including Highfield Princess, who was an unlucky runner-up in the King’s Stand on Tuesday, plus Hong Kong raider Wellington and Kinross for Frankie. There is more bad news for Dettori’s ride Kinross as we’ve not has a winner from stall 1 in the last 18 years. So, the two that stand out are last year’s fast-finishing third Artorius for Australia. This 4 year-old is another year older and wiser here and only went down by 3/4 of a length 12 months ago after storming home. The winner of the Wokingham Stakes for the last two years – Rohaan – is the other call as he loves Ascot. He should be spot on for this after a run at Salisbury at the end of May and has won 4 times overall at the Berkshire track.
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Key Trends
- 18/20 – Previous distance (6f) winners
- 17/20 – Previous Group Race winners
- 16/20 – Aged 5 or younger
- 15/20 – Had run at Ascot before
- 14/20 – Failed to win their last race
- 13/20 – Won by a UK-based yard
- 9/20 – Returned a double-figure price
- 9/20 – Unplaced favourites
- 6/20 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
- 5/20 – Winning favourite (joint)
- 2/20 – Trained by James Fanshawe
- 7 of the last 18 winners were Irish-bred
- 9 of the last 18 winners came from a low-figure draw
- No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
- 7 of the last 18 winners returned a double-figure price
- 2022 – Naval Crown (33/1)
4.20 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV
Hukum (now a non-runner) will be popular here after winning the Brigadier Gerard Stakes – beating the 2022 Epsom Derby winner Desert Crown and has now won 10 of his 16 races. Free Wind is another prolific scorer that will be popular for Frankie, but a chance is taken with the O’Brien runner Changingoftheguard, who won the King Edward VII Stakes last year at this meeting – O’Brien has won this race 4 times in the last 20 years. The 2022 Derby 5th will be better for a return run at Chester in the Ormonde Stakes. The 2020 King Edward VII Stakes winner Pyledriver is also respected and despite having not raced since last July is sure to have been well-trained for this by the Muir/Grassick camp. He’s gone well fresh in the past and was last seen at Ascot powering away with the King George – a repeat of that would make him a huge player. Finally, of those at a big price. Grand Alliance for Charlie Fellowes was only just touched off in the King Edward VII last year by Changingoftheguard and could outrun his odds after winning the John Porter last time very well at Newbury.
Hardwicke Stakes Trends
- 20/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
- 20/20 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
- 17/20 – Placed last time out
- 17/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
- 14/20 – Had run at Ascot before
- 13/20 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
- 13/20 – Aged 4 years-old (inc 11 of last 12 winners)
- 13/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
- 13/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
- 12/20 – Placed favourites
- 9/20 – Won their previous race
- 7/20 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
- 7/20 – Winning favourites
- 6/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 14 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
- 12 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- No winner from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
- 7 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
- Sir Michael Stoute has trained 11 winners in total
- 2022 – Broome (6/1)
5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV4
28 runners heading to post here so, as always, the Wokingham is a tricky race to unravel. The recent stats tell us there have only been 9 winning favourites since 1980 – but there have been 5 in the last 23. 33 of those winners since 1980 returned a double-figure price too. 76% of the last 17 came from a double-figure draw too, while with 83% of the last 23 winners aged 4 or 5, then this is the age group to focus on. Finally, with 87% of the last 23 winners finishing 6th or better last time and 8 winning at Ascot before these are other stats to note.
With these in mind, one of the fancied runners Orazio ticks a lot of boxes for William Buick and with just 6 career wins looks the sort that could progress out of handicap sprint company soon. The consistent Apollo One is another of interest from stall 15 – the horse from this berth has been placed in 3 of the last 11 runnings. Spangled Mac is the final runner to have on your radar as this 4 year-old gets in with just 8-11 to carry and draw 20 looks ideal. This George Boughey runner has won 5 of his 13 starts too, so knows his job and was a fair fourth Thursday’s Buckingham Palace Stakes over 7f. Jockey Neil Callan has also already been on the scoresheet this week at the meeting and the drop back to 6f will be fine.
Wokingham Stakes Key Trends
- 23/23 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
- 21/23 – Had no more than 4 runs that season
- 21/23 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
- 20/23 – Finished sixth or better last time out
- 20/23 – Had won a race over 6f before
- 19/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 14/23 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
- 14/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 14/23 – Had run at Ascot before (8 had won here)
- 11/23 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
- 7/23 – Won their previous race
- 5/23 – Won by the favourite
- 11 of the last 17 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
- 10 of the last 17 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
- 13 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure draw
- 12 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall
- 9 of the last 12 runnings – the top 2 finishers both came from double-figure stalls
- Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 11 runnings
- Since 1980 there have been only 9 winning favourites
- Since 1980 there have been 33 winners returning a double-figure price
- 2022 – Rohaan (18/1)
5.35 – Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV4
Just the three previous runnings here but it’s slightly interesting that all three winners came from stalls 13-16, with the last two winners from stall 13 itself. The horse from that berth here is the Gosden runner Obelix, who sports the first-time cheekpieces and could be an improver. The other horses with this draw stat on their side are Like A Tiger (14), Cuban Dawn (15) and Local Dynasty (16).
Of the rest, William Haggas, who trained the King’s first winner at Royal Ascot has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds here and runs Laafi, while this will be Frankie’s last ever Royal Ascot ride so it would be foolish to ignore the headline writer going out with a bang on Knockbrex.
- Just the 3 previous runnings
- Missed the Cut (5/2 fav) won this race in 2022
- Foxes Tales (13/2) won this race in 2021
- Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
- Trainer George Boughey won this race in 2022
- Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2021
- Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
- All 3 winners came between stalls 13-16 (inc)
6.10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4
Stratum has won the last two runnings of this race and is sure to go well again for trainer Willie Mullins who is hunting his 10th Royal Ascot winner and his 5th in this race. William Buick rides again after steering this Tony Bloom-owned 10 year-old and should be spot-on for his three-timer bid after a run at Leopardstown last month. The quirky Goshen is out again too for Gary Moore, but isn’t one to really on too much these days despite having ability, while former Chester Cup winner Falcon Eight can go well.
But Ryan Moore booked to ride the Joseph O’Brien runner Dawn Rising caught the eye for JP McManus and warmed up for this with a decent third in a G3 at Leopardstown. The final mention goes to Typewriter for Andrew Balding, with the yard winning this race twice since 2013. This 4 year-old stayed on well over 1m6f last time in the G3 Bronte Cup at York and can improve for the longer trip. Oisin Murphy rides.
Queen Alexandra Stakes Trends
- 18/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
- 13/20 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
- 13/20 – Had run at Ascot before
- 10/20 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
- 8/20 – Won by a NH yard
- 7/20 – Irish-trained winners
- 4/20 – Winning favourites
- 4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 4/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
- 2/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding
- 2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
- 2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
- 2/20 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
- 2/20 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
- 12 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- 12 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
- 11 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall
- Stratum has won the last two runnings
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New customer offer only. A qualifying bet is a real money sports bet of at least £10 win or £0 each way at minimum fractional odds of evens (2.0 in decimal odds). We’ll credit your account with 1 x 10 free bet upon settlement of qualifying bet. Promotion runs from 25/02/2022 until 31/06/2022. If this promotion is withdrawn it will not impact any qualifying bet you have placed during promotional period |
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